上海石化乙二醇装置扩建项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-06-06 07:23

本文选题：乙二醇扩建项目 + 项目风险管理　；参考：《华东理工大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：石油化工行业在我国国民经济中处于基础性的位置,该行业在推进我国社会及经济发展上作用巨大,是推动我国经济持续稳定发展的重要支柱产业。但是石油化工生产具有有别于其他行业的特殊性,生产连续性强,过程复杂,涉及专业多,物料和生产又具有易燃、易爆、易中毒,高温、高压,有腐蚀等特点,因此,如何做好项目风险管理,已经普遍受到石油石化项目投资者,以及上级管理部门的关注及重视,与此同时,这也是相关学者的研究重点。在本文中,先对项目及风险的概念进行阐述,之后则立足于项目风险管理的基础理论,对整个扩建项目风险管理的过程进行探讨,且在这过程中还对其中六个具体过程中所使用的技术及方法,也进行相应的分析及探究。然后,选择以乙二醇扩建项目风险管理作为研究对象,结合调查法及访谈法等研究方法,识别、分类和汇总该项目的各种风险。然后在参考一般项目风险管理理论的基础上,对风险因素进行详细的预测及识别,而对于不同的风险评估技术及方法,也对其进行比较及选择性地使用。本研究在价值及创新点上较为明显,具体体现在通过实地调查及进行相应的分析,之后在这基础上提出工程项目风险管理系统所具有的思想体系,并应用"层次评分法"对这五个方面的风险进行评价,并应用"层次评分法"对市场竞争风险、乙二醇原料供应风险、价格波动风险、安全风险和环境风险这五个方面的风险进行了整体评价,并将其进行数值化,通过判断矩阵等科学计算方法进行量化。在论文的最后部分,则结合该项目运行的实际情况,并对其进行针对性的验证及总结。本研究对石油化工建设项目的风险识别、分析和应对工作,具有一定的参考意义。
[Abstract]:Petrochemical industry is in the basic position in the national economy of our country. It plays an important role in promoting the social and economic development of our country and is an important pillar industry to promote the sustained and stable development of our economy. But the petrochemical production has the particularity which is different from other industries, the production continuity is strong, the process is complicated, involves the specialized many, the material and the production also has the flammable, the explosive, the easy poisoning, the high temperature, the high pressure, the corrosion and so on characteristic, therefore, How to do well the project risk management has been generally concerned by the petroleum and petrochemical project investors, as well as the superior management department, at the same time, it is also the research focus of the related scholars. In this paper, the concept of project and risk is first expounded, and then based on the basic theory of project risk management, the whole process of risk management of extension project is discussed. In the process, the techniques and methods used in the six specific processes are also analyzed and explored. Then, we select ethylene glycol extension project risk management as the research object, combined with investigation method and interview method to identify, classify and summarize the various risks of the project. Then, based on the general project risk management theory, the risk factors are predicted and identified in detail, and the different risk assessment techniques and methods are compared and selectively used. This research is more obvious in value and innovation, which is embodied in the field investigation and corresponding analysis, and then puts forward the thought system of engineering project risk management system. The risk of these five aspects is evaluated by "hierarchy scoring method", and the risk of market competition, the supply risk of ethylene glycol raw material, the risk of price fluctuation are evaluated by "hierarchy scoring method". The safety risk and environmental risk are evaluated as a whole and numerically, and quantified by scientific calculation methods such as judgment matrix. In the last part of the paper, combined with the actual situation of the project, it is verified and summarized. This study has some reference significance for the risk identification, analysis and response of petrochemical construction projects.
【学位授予单位】：华东理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TQ223.162;TQ086

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