演化博弈视角下中俄天然气贸易影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-06-07 02:00

本文选题：天然气贸易 + 演化博弈　；参考：《新疆大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：天然气是一种清洁、高效的能源,在世界能源系统中占据重要的地位。我国是世界第三大天然气消费国,天然气生产量不能满足我国需求,因此进口天然气是我国实现供需平衡的重要手段,能源安全对我国非常重要,是经济发展的重要保障。俄罗斯是天然气出口大国,出口量世界排名第一位。两国天然气贸易合作具有良好的基础,研究两国天然气贸易的合作博弈以及影响因素对保障我国天然气安全十分必要。本文首先对国内外学者对能源,天然气的研究进行了梳理,在此基础上分别分析了中俄两国天然气工业的发展。然后分析两国天然气合作现状,选取了2006年至2015年的数据,在建立演化博弈模型的基础上对两国天然气合作进行了实证分析。然后对引起演化博弈模型鞍点运动轨迹变化的因素进行了分析,将影响因素分为两部分,对经济性以及非经济性影响因素进行了归纳分析。本文认为非经济性因素在中俄天然气贸易合作中产生很大的影响,不能忽视非经济性因素对两国天然气贸易产生的影响。最后,根据结合影响两国天然气贸易的因素对两国未来贸易合作提出了具有可行性的政策建议:加强中俄两国的政治互信,建立两国天然气合作机制,建立亚太地区能源合作机制,拓宽合作领域、促进合作形式多样化,加强两国企业间的合作。
[Abstract]:Natural gas is a kind of clean and efficient energy, which plays an important role in the world energy system. China is the third largest natural gas consumer in the world, and natural gas production can not meet the demand of our country. Therefore, imported natural gas is an important means to achieve the balance between supply and demand in our country. Energy security is very important for our country, and it is an important guarantee for economic development. Russia is a big exporter of natural gas, ranking first in the world. The natural gas trade cooperation between the two countries has a good foundation. It is necessary to study the cooperative game of natural gas trade between the two countries and the influencing factors to ensure the natural gas safety of our country. In this paper, the domestic and foreign scholars on energy, natural gas research were combed, on the basis of the analysis of the development of natural gas industry in China and Russia. Then, the paper analyzes the current situation of natural gas cooperation between the two countries, selects the data from 2006 to 2015, and makes an empirical analysis of the natural gas cooperation between the two countries on the basis of the evolutionary game model. Then the factors that cause the evolution game model saddle point motion trajectory change are analyzed. The influencing factors are divided into two parts and the economic and non-economic factors are summarized and analyzed. This paper holds that the non-economic factors have a great influence on the Sino-Russian natural gas trade cooperation, and the influence of non-economic factors on the natural gas trade between the two countries can not be ignored. Finally, according to the factors affecting the natural gas trade between the two countries, the paper puts forward feasible policy recommendations for the future trade cooperation between the two countries: strengthening the political mutual trust between China and Russia, and establishing a mechanism for natural gas cooperation between the two countries. We will establish mechanisms for energy cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region, broaden the scope of cooperation, promote diversification of cooperation forms, and strengthen cooperation between enterprises of the two countries.
【学位授予单位】：新疆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.22;F752.7;F224.32

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