输气管道滑坡灾害风险评价方法研究

发布时间：2018-07-08 20:32

本文选题：输气管道 + 滑坡灾害　；参考：《西南石油大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着中国经济的快速发展,国内天然气的需求量大大增加。天然气需求量增加以及天然气产地与消耗地的不匹配加快了我国长输天然气管道的建设速度,但建成的天然气管道常遭受各种地质灾害,其中滑坡又是较常见且事故后果较严重的地质灾害之一。目前国内外关于滑坡灾害下管道的力学分析和风险评价研究较多,但鲜有基于管道力学分析的滑坡灾害风险评价研究。为完善输气管道滑坡灾害的风险评价方法,本文以土质滑坡灾害下管道的受力分析为基础,开展输气管道滑坡灾害风险评价方法研究。论文的主要研究内容如下:(1)分别采用解析法和有限元模拟方法分析了滑坡灾害下输气管道的受力变形情况,分析出管道最危险位置位于管道中心处及滑动区和非滑动区的过渡段区域;将有限元模拟结果与解析计算结果进行对比,验证了本文建立有限元模型的合理性;将基于应力失效准则和基于应变失效准则的特点进行对比,结合输气管道滑坡灾害的实际情况,选择了基于应力的失效判定准则作为输气管道滑坡灾害的失效判据。(2)本文通过敏感性系数分析法对滑坡灾害下管道应力的主要影响因素进行分析,得到了管道应力主要影响因素的变化规律以及排序情况,为风险评价中影响因素的排序以及风险缓解措施的制定提供了理论依据。(3)构建了输气管道滑坡灾害风险评价模型。首先建立包括致灾影响因素、承灾敏感程度和监测治理情况等3方面的失效可能性评价指标体系以及对应的评价标准,并通过突变级数评价法判定输气管道滑坡灾害的失效可能性等级情况;其次建立包括安全、经济和环境等3方面的失效后果评价指标体系以及对应的评价标准,并通过层次分析法结合改进二元语义评价法判定输气管道滑坡灾害失效后果等级情况;最后通过风险矩阵确定输气管道滑坡灾害的风险等级。(4)综合已有研究成果和敏感性分析结果,从管道设计施工和管道生产运营2个阶段总结归纳出输气管道滑坡灾害风险缓解措施的建议。(5)将本文的评价方法用于西气东输管道某滑坡灾害点的风险评价中,得到的风险等级和系统薄弱因素与西气东输地质灾害现场风险评估报告一致。本文的研究成果在一定程度上补充和完善现有的输气管道滑坡灾害风险评价方法,为确保输气管道的安全运营提供理论支撑。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, the domestic demand for natural gas has greatly increased. The increasing demand for natural gas and the mismatch between the natural gas producing area and the consuming place have accelerated the construction speed of the long-distance natural gas pipeline in China, but the completed natural gas pipeline is often subjected to various geological disasters. Landslide is one of the most common geological hazards with serious accident consequences. At present, there are many researches on mechanics analysis and risk assessment of pipelines under landslide disasters at home and abroad, but there are few researches on landslide hazard risk assessment based on pipeline mechanics analysis. In order to improve the risk assessment method of landslide disaster in gas transmission pipeline, the risk assessment method of landslide disaster in gas pipeline is studied based on the stress analysis of pipeline under the disaster of soil landslide. The main contents of this paper are as follows: (1) the stress and deformation of gas pipeline under landslide disaster are analyzed by using analytical method and finite element simulation method respectively. It is found that the most dangerous position of the pipeline lies in the center of the pipeline and the transitional region of the sliding and non-sliding regions, and the rationality of the finite element model is verified by comparing the finite element simulation results with the analytical results. The characteristics based on stress failure criterion and strain failure criterion are compared and combined with the actual situation of landslide disaster in gas pipeline. The failure criterion based on stress is selected as the failure criterion of landslide disaster in gas pipeline. (2) the main influencing factors of pipeline stress under landslide disaster are analyzed by sensitivity coefficient analysis method in this paper. The variation law of the main influencing factors of pipeline stress and the ranking situation are obtained, which provides a theoretical basis for the ranking of influencing factors in risk assessment and the formulation of risk mitigation measures. (3) the risk assessment model of landslide disaster in gas pipeline is constructed. First of all, the evaluation index system of failure possibility and the corresponding evaluation standard are established, which include three aspects, such as the factors that cause the disaster, the sensitivity of the disaster bearing and the monitoring of the governance, etc. The failure probability grade of gas pipeline landslide disaster is determined by the method of sudden change series evaluation. Secondly, the evaluation index system of failure consequence including safety, economy and environment is established, and the corresponding evaluation standard is established. And through the analytic hierarchy process combined with the improved binary semantic evaluation method to determine the natural gas pipeline landslide disaster failure grade; Finally, the risk grade of landslide disaster in gas pipeline is determined by risk matrix. (4) synthesizing the existing research results and sensitivity analysis results, According to the two stages of pipeline design and construction and pipeline production and operation, the suggestions of mitigation measures for landslide disaster risk of gas pipeline are summarized. (5) the evaluation method of this paper is applied to the risk assessment of a landslide disaster point in a gas pipeline from the west to the east. The risk grade and system weakness are consistent with the field risk assessment report of gas transportation from west to east. To a certain extent, the research results of this paper complement and improve the existing methods of landslide risk assessment of gas pipelines, and provide theoretical support to ensure the safe operation of gas pipelines.
【学位授予单位】：西南石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TE88

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