雾霾情景下公众雾霾感知的演化过程及风险应对行为选择研究

发布时间：2017-12-27 17:28

本文关键词：雾霾情景下公众雾霾感知的演化过程及风险应对行为选择研究　出处：《中国科学技术大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来我国已经历了多次严重的雾霾天气,雾霾大面积爆发的本质是中国目前的经济发展和不合理的人类活动的警告,同时"雾霾"风险是目前各类环境风险的集中缩影和典型个例,迅速进入大众的视线,引起民众广泛的讨论,也给现阶段政府治理出了道难题。面对雾霾,民众不禁追问雾霾污染应该由谁来负责?作为普通大众,我们应该怎么做才能改变当前"雾霾围城"的现状?雾霾天气下的风险应对行为是指公众为应对雾霾风险,减免受到雾霾危害而采取的应对措施。雾霾问题作为环境问题的一种,对亲环境行为的选择也被视作为雾霾情景下的风险应对行为之一。亲环境行为被学术界定义为通过改变日常行为来减少自身对生态环境造成的负面影响,亲环境行为包括环境友好行为和自我保护行为。近年来,随着公众对雾霾天气及其危害的认识,以及环保意识和自我保护意识的提高,当雾霾发生后,公众往往会做出相应的反应和行为例如佩戴口罩、使用空气净化器、减少私家车使用、节约利用资源等,其中佩戴,口罩、使用空气净化器等可以被认为是自我保护型行为,而减少私家车使用和节约利用资源可以被认为是环境友好型行为。正确地引导公众采取这两种行为有利于政府开展雾霾治理。先前已有理论和研究探讨了风险情景下公众风险应对行为的影响因素,例如有限记忆理论、归因理论以及防护性行为决策模型(PADM),他们都认为个体的行为决策过程实际是一种对信息的加工并处理的模式,对信息进行加工形成感知并最终影响行为决策。因此,本文将从雾霾信息接收、雾霾风险责任归因以及雾霾风险应对行为属性三个方面探讨公众风险应对行为决策的内在机理,揭示信息、感知(风险感知及责任归因)、行为属性对行为决策的影响机制。本文通过文献综述、数学建模以及实证调研等方法,从三个方面开展研究:(1)研究了雾霾信息接收对公众雾霾感知和行为意向的影响。基于有限记忆理论,本研究构建了公众雾霾感知演化模型。每次雾霾事件发生后,各种媒体以及沟通渠道都会释放相关雾霾信息,根据媒体议程设置,每次雾霾事件释放的信息数量也会不同,公众处理这些信息并形成感知。有限记忆理论中讨论了记忆的近因效应、联想效应和复述效应对感知形成的影响,基于此我们设定了记忆率参数以及联想率参数并通过递归算法归纳出雾霾情景下公众感知和行为演化模型,并对该模型进行仿真。结果表明当公众每次接收到的雾霾信息保持不变时,他们的感知演化是一个呈单调上升趋势但存在上限的函数,公众的记忆率和联想率都会决定公众记忆的上限。当公众接收到的雾霾信息呈现增长、减少或者先增长后减少的变化时,他们的感知和行为意向也会保持同样的变化态势,但相对信息变化存在着一定的滞后。(2)研究了雾霾风险责任归因对公众风险应对行为意向的影响。本研究通过整合归因理论和防护性行为决策模型(PADM),将风险责任归因作为一个重要变量,纳入PADM模型中,构建了一个新的研究框架。该框架假设公众的风险感知受他们所依赖的信息来源影响,风险感知激发了他们对风险责任归因的判断并进一步影响他们选择采取自我保护型行为和环境友好型行为的意向。本研究以2013年底和2014年初发生大规模雾霾天气为实证背景,调查了雾霾天气的重灾区——安徽省合肥市地区的城市居民,通过问卷采访了 420名受访者,询问他们对于雾霾信息来源偏好、风险感知、雾霾风险责任归因以及风险应对行为选择的看法,获取了第一手的研究数据。多元回归分析的结果回答了研究框架中提出的研究问题,结果表明依赖从非正式来源接收雾霾信息会导致较高的风险感知,较高的风险感知一方面会对公众风险责任归因产生正向影响,一方面也会促进公众采取风险应对行为。公众的信息来源偏好对其风险责任归因产生正向影响,但影响会存在差异,例如从非正式来源接收风险信息往往会使个体将责任归于公众,而偏好媒体来源则会产生三种不同的风险责任归因。雾霾责任归因将直接影响环境友好行为意向,但不影响自我保护行为意向,当公众将雾霾风险归因于自身不当的生活习惯时,他们会采取环保行为。(3)研究了雾霾风险应对行为属性对公众风险应对行为意向的影响。通过梳理PMT理论和PADM模型中对风险应对行为属性的界定,我们将风险应对行为属性分为风险相关属性和资源相关属性,并构建以这两种行为属性为核心变量的研究框架。我们假设公众的人口统计特征会影响公众对风险以及风险应对行为属性的感知,这两种感知以及公众过往的行为经验会最终影响他们的行为选择意向。研究结果表明风险相关属性都是影响公众自我保护行为和环境友好行为的最显著以及最重要变量,其影响程度大于资源相关属性以及风险感知。资源相关属性出乎意料地对风险应对行为也会采取正向影响而非负向影响。在本研究中,我们还讨论了公众过去的风险应对行为选择对他们未来继续选择该行为的影响,结果表明过去的行为会对未来的行为选择意向产生正向的影响。人口统计特征也会对行为产生直接影响,例如年龄较大的人往往生活更为节约,他们会倾向于选择环境友好型行为。学历则对自我保护行为意向有显著的负向影响,也就是说学历越高,他们越不倾向于采取自我保护行为。本研究的创新点在于:第一,从个体记忆角度,研究信息接收模式对个体感知和行为应对的影响,这在风险管理领域尚属首次。第二,本研究将风险责任归因这一变量整合进基于防护性行为决策模型所搭建的研究框架中,并得出一个新的研究框架。利用风险责任归因这一变量,我们能很好地理解和解释公众对事件责任归因的看法是如何影响他们后续的行为的。第三,本研究将环境领域被广泛接受与讨论的社会学用语"亲环境行为"引入到雾霾背景下的个体行为研究中,使得本研究的结论更具有指导意义。第四,本研究引入了风险应对行为属性这一概念,并检验了风险应对行为属性在行为决策过程起到的作用,这在国内的风险管理领域尚属首次。本研究也具有一些实践意义,有助于管理者深层次地、有差别地理解公众雾霾应对的心理和行为,从而针对其认知和行为进行有效引导,为政府合理干预公众雾霾风险感知和风险应对行为提供了理论和现实依据。
[Abstract]:Our country has experienced a number of serious haze weather in recent years, the nature of the haze is a large area of the outbreak of Chinese current economic development and unreasonable human activities and warning, "haze" is the epitome of all kinds of environmental risk concentration risk and typical case, quickly into the public eye, causing widespread public discussion. To present a problem of governance. In the face of haze, haze pollution can not help but ask people who should be responsible for? As the general public, what should we do to change the current situation of "haze siege"? The risk coping behavior of haze weather refers to the public to deal with haze risk, and take measures to deal with the harm of relief by haze. As one of the environmental problems, the choice of environmental behavior is also considered as one of the risk response behaviors under the fog and haze situation. The pro environmental behavior is defined by academic circles to reduce the negative impact of self on the ecological environment by changing daily behaviors, including environmental friendly behaviors, environmental friendly behaviors and self protective behaviors. In recent years, with the public awareness of the haze weather and its harm, as well as environmental awareness and self-protection awareness, when haze occurred, the public tend to react and act such as wearing masks, air purifiers, reduce the use of private cars, the economical use of resources, including wearing masks, air purifiers and other uses can be considered to be self protective behavior, and reduce the use of private cars and the economical use of resources can be considered environmentally friendly behavior. The correct guidance to the public to take these two acts is conducive to the government to carry out haze governance. Previous theory and research to explore the factors influencing the risk coping behavior of public risk scenarios, such as limited memory theory, attribution theory and protective behavior decision model (PADM), they believe that the decision-making process of individuals is a kind of information processing and processing mode, the information processing and the final formation of perception effect of behavioral decision making. Therefore, this article will explore the internal mechanism of public risk decision-making behavior, information receiving from the haze haze and haze risk attribution of responsibility risk coping behavior attribute three aspects, revealing information, perception (risk perception and attribution of responsibility), the influence mechanism of behavior attributes on decision-making behavior. Based on literature review, mathematical modeling and empirical research, this paper studies from three aspects: (1) the impact of haze information reception on public haze perception and behavioral intention is studied. Based on the finite memory theory, a public fog haze perception evolution model is built in this study. After every haze event, all kinds of media and communication channels will release related haze information. According to the media agenda, the amount of information released by each haze event will also be different. The public will process these information and form a perception. Limited in memory theory discusses the influence of recency effect, memory effect and Lenovo rehearsal effect on perceived forms based on this, we set the rate of memory parameters and Lenovo rates through recursive algorithm parameters and summed up the haze scenarios the public perception and behavior evolution model, and the simulation of the model. The results show that when the haze information received by the public remains unchanged, their perception evolution is a monotonic upward trend, but there is an upper bound function. The memory and association rate of the public will determine the upper limit of public memory. When the haze information received by the public shows a change of growth or decrease or increase and then decrease, their perception and behavioral intention will remain the same, but the relative information change is lagging behind. (2) the influence of haze risk liability attribution on public risk response behavior intention was studied. This study integrates attribution theory and defensive behavior decision making model (PADM), and takes attribution of risk responsibility as an important variable into PADM model, and constructs a new research framework. The framework assumes that public risk perception is influenced by the information sources they rely on. Risk perception motivates their judgment of attribution of risk responsibility and further influences their intention to adopt self protective behavior and environment-friendly behavior. In this study, by the end of 2013 and early 2014 large-scale haze to empirically investigated the haze weather disaster area -- Hefei city in Anhui Province, through questionnaire interviews with 420 respondents, asking for information sources of haze preference and risk perception, risk and risk response haze responsibility attribution behavior choice view to obtain research data, first hand. The results of multiple regression analysis to answer the research questions put forward the research framework, the results show that dependence from informal sources of haze receiving information will lead to higher risk perception, risk perception of high hand will have a positive impact on the public risk attribution of responsibility, on the one hand will take the risk coping behavior to promote the public. Public information preferences have a positive impact on their attribution of risk liability, but there are differences. For example, receiving information from informal sources often causes individuals to blame their responsibilities on the public, while the preference of media sources will result in three different risk attributions. Haze responsibility attribution will directly affect environmental friendly behavior intention, but it will not affect self-protection behavior intention. When the public attribute haze risk to their own improper habits, they will take environmental behavior. (3) the effects of the behavior attributes of the haze risk coping behavior on the public risk response behavior intention were studied. By combing the definition of risk response behavior attributes in PMT theory and PADM model, we divide risk response attributes into risk related attributes and resource related attributes, and construct these two behavioral attributes as core variables.
【学位授予单位】：中国科学技术大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X51

【相似文献】