基于差异化个体特性的密集客流疏散行为分析与建模

发布时间：2018-01-03 19:39

本文关键词：基于差异化个体特性的密集客流疏散行为分析与建模　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,各类人群密集场所由于火灾、地震、恐怖袭击等突发事件导致的恐慌和拥挤踩踏事故风险加剧,如何降低或避免由于突发事件导致的人员伤亡和财产损失是当前研究的热点问题之一。通过对当前行人行为模型总结分析发现,虽然在分析疏散中的许多现象和过程方面取得了大量成果,但既有疏散仿真工具经常忽视人的行为,将行人视为粒子进行模拟,缺乏个体行为与群体演化的关联性探索,模型与仿真中对行人个人特征及其影响因素较少涉及。社会心理学领域的理论和研究则指出,这些因子对于行人疏散决策行为具有重要影响。而行人的组织与疏散仿真是拥挤场所安全评估的必要手段,因此深入研究行人个体、组与群体行为,探索考虑个体行为差异的群体疏散模型,对提高应急疏散能力和保障公共安全具有重要意义。本文结合人群密集场所行人认知与决策行为调查,分析了有关认知与心理反应的社会经济学因子,揭示了人群密集场所行人个体社会行为影响下的群体运动行为,以及群体运动规则下的个体行为。在时间和空间维度上解析了行人逃生决策机理,分析了反应决策阶段和逃生运动阶段中,行人洞察危险并进行反应判断,做出逃生出口预决策,开始逃生运动,直至成功逃生的全过程。整个过程,行人的决策行为贯穿始末,差异化的个体特征、环境特征和决策能力形成了个性化的反应决策行为。基于行为决策机理分析,建立了人群密集场所行人个体逃生行为模型构架。模型构架由基于差异化个体特性的逃生时机决策模型、基于差异化个体认知的逃生出口选择偏好模型、基于差异化理性行为的动态疏散路径选择模型三阶段所构成。其中,第一阶段模型,分析了突发事件的态势演化和行人个体逃生选择阈值,建立了行人疏散时机与社会经济环境等影响因子间的量化模型。第二阶段模型基于对人群密集场所行人物理特征、认知特征和决策行为的调查,构建了行人出口选择与行人个体特征的间的量化方程,并对行人出口选择进行预测分析,模型主要反映了行人个体空间认知差异导致紧急情况下所能够选择的出口或逃生方向选择差异。第三阶段模型分析了突发事件下行人个体路径选择最大效用,效用函数主要考虑期望逃生时间、障碍物阻力、区域服务水平、行人个性化认知水平,基于行人异质性原则,通过个体认知的基础差异和逻辑规则差异达到最终的行为差异,形成最终的行人逃生路径选择。根据已建立的行人疏散行为模型体系,选择北京南站地下一层进行实证分析,采集了该区域的各出入口行人流量、瞬时区域人群密度、行人正常行进速度及行人步行路径等数据,假设突发事件发生位置,预测所有行人逃生时机和行人初始OD矩阵,并建立行人路径效用函数,基于建立的差异化动态路径选择模型对行人路径选择进行预测和模拟,仿真结果可信,模型能够为人群密集场所的设施布局、出入口设计、应急疏散提供技术支持。
[Abstract]:In recent years, all kinds of crowded places due to fires, earthquakes, terrorist attacks and other emergencies caused panic and increased risk of crowded stampede, how to reduce or avoid the incidents caused casualties and property losses is one of the hot issues in current research. Through the pedestrian behavior model analysis found that, although in many phenomena the analysis and process of evacuation in a large number of results, but the existing evacuation simulation tools often ignore the behavior of people, will be regarded as particles to simulate the pedestrian, the lack of relevance of individual behavior and group evolution, model and Simulation of characteristics and influence factors of individual pedestrian lessinvolved. Theory and research in the field of social psychology it is pointed out that these factors has important effect on pedestrian evacuation and evacuation simulation and decision-making behavior. The organization is crowded places of safety assessment The necessary means, so the study of pedestrian individual, group and group behavior, explore the consideration of individual differences in behavior evacuation model, to improve the capacity of the emergency evacuation and ensure public safety is of great significance. This paper places crowded pedestrian cognition and decision behavior investigation, analysis of the socioeconomic factors of the cognitive and psychological reactions, revealing the behavior of pedestrians in crowded places under the influence of individual social behavior, and group motion under the rules of individual behavior. In the dimensions of time and space analysis of the pedestrian escape decision mechanism, analyzed the response decision stage and escape movement stage, pedestrian and reaction of insight into risk judgment, make exit pre decision, start escape, until the whole process of successful escape. The whole process, the decision-making behavior of pedestrians throughout the whole story, the individual differences of the environment. Sign and decision-making ability formation reaction behavior. Analysis of personalized decision-making mechanism based on a crowded places pedestrian individual escape behavior model. The escape frame timing decision model based on different framework from the individual characteristics, the preference model of individual cognitive differences exit based on a dynamic difference of rational behavior evacuation route choice model based on the three stage. The first stage model, analyzes the situation and evolution of individual pedestrian emergency escape selection threshold, established the pedestrian evacuation time and social economic environment influence quantitative model among the factors. The second stage model based on the physical characteristics of pedestrians in crowded places, investigation of cognitive characteristics and decision-making behavior the quantitative equation, constructed the exit choice and individual characteristics between pedestrians, and to predict the exit choice Analysis model mainly reflects differences in spatial cognition caused by individual pedestrians can choose an emergency exit or escape direction difference. Third stage model to analyze the emergency pedestrian path selection of maximum utility, the utility function is mainly considering the escape time, obstacle resistance, regional service level, the cognitive level of individual pedestrians, pedestrians based on the principle of heterogeneity, reach the final behavior difference based individual differences in cognitive and logical rules of difference, form the final pedestrian escape route choice. According to the established model of pedestrian evacuation system, selection of Beijing South Railway Station basement for empirical analysis, collected in the region of each entrance pedestrian flow, instantaneous regional population density the normal pedestrian speed and pedestrian path data, assuming that the occurrence of unexpected events, prediction of all pedestrian escape Machine and pedestrian initial OD matrix, and the establishment of the pedestrian path utility function, establish the difference based on dynamic route choice model for prediction and Simulation of pedestrian route choice, the simulation results are reliable, model to crowded places in the facility layout, entrance design, emergency evacuation and provide technical support.

【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U298.2

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