城市通勤二氧化碳排放的比较研究

发布时间：2018-01-08 15:00

本文关键词：城市通勤二氧化碳排放的比较研究　出处：《长安大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：低碳交通发展已经成为中国应对全球气候变化和实现可持续发展的优先战略之一,在快速城市化与机动化的进程中,寻找导致环境污染等问题的症结,是应对城市不断扩张、人口持续增加、经济迅速增长等挑战,探索城市低碳交通发展的科学路径。本论文使用四个课题(国家自然基金项目“基于城市交通参数-家庭交通碳排放模型的西部城市低碳交通发展模式研究(51178055)”、全球变化研究之亚太网络项目“空间参数对温室气体排放的影响:中国与印度城市的比较研究(ARCP2011-07CMY-Han)”、澳大利亚研究委员会项目“低碳城市配置:在中国单中心、多中心城市对空间参数作用的探索(ARCDP1094801)”、国家自然基金项目“低碳导向的北京城市空间结构优化研究(41371007)”)采集的数据,对处于快速发展时期的中国与印度的四个典型城市(中国北京、西安、武汉与印度班加罗尔)的城市形态、通勤行为特征、通勤二氧化碳排放量及敏感性、空间分布特征进行了系统测算与比较研究,分别建立了通用和与各城市最适宜的城市个人/家庭通勤二氧化碳排放模型,揭示了城市通勤二氧化碳排放及其空间分布的影响因素与关系,发现了城市空间与交通发展、通勤行为、通勤二氧化碳排放互动中的规律及趋势。研究成果可对减少城市交通二氧化碳排放的政策制定、对城市低碳交通、低碳城市与可持续城市的发展方案与规划控制提供借鉴。本研究有以下创新性成果:第一,提出了使用泰森多边形与交通小区空间叠加的方法计算交通小区的家庭/个人通勤二氧化碳排放量的方法。该方法避免了城市空间上的个人/家庭通勤二氧化碳排放量分布统计的不连续性,可以基于通勤者家庭所在小区集计、统计与描述通勤二氧化碳排放量空间分布的特征。基于该方法研究发现在环路、放射线周边、城市外围地区的通勤二氧化碳排放量大于中心区,通勤二氧化碳排放量与家庭拥有小汽车的空间分布特征一致。第二,基于城市个人/家庭通勤二氧化碳排放量的非正态分布特性,提出了采用Tobit模型构建城市个人/家庭通勤二氧化碳排放的影响因素解释模型。基于该方法研究发现了以环路分隔的家庭位置和通勤者的职业类型是影响城市通勤二氧化碳排放量的重要因素;家庭拥有小汽车对中印城市通勤二氧化碳排放量的影响作用最大,是导致中印城市通勤二氧化碳排放量增加的最主要因素,与国际发达城市地区中收入对个人通勤二氧化碳排放量的影响作用较大有所不同;多中心的城市形态对减少个人/家庭通勤二氧化碳排放量具有显著影响作用。第三,提出了通勤二氧化碳排放因子与排放量敏感性分析的计算方法。基于该方法研究发现了载客量变化引起的通勤二氧化碳排放因子变化幅度远大于燃料消耗量变化引起的通勤二氧化碳排放因子变化幅度;通勤距离变化引起的通勤二氧化碳排放量变化幅度远大于通勤二氧化碳排放因子变化引起的通勤二氧化碳排放量变化幅度,结果表明通勤距离是通勤二氧化碳排放量的最敏感因子,其次是载客量。第四,通过对四个案例城市的对比研究发现:(1)单中心蔓延型城市的通勤二氧化碳排放量的倍数差别大于城市面积、人口与经济指标的倍数差别;(2)多中心城市的平均个人/家庭通勤二氧化碳排放量比单中心城市的值低、短距离出行比例高、非机动化出行比例高、小汽车出行比例低;城市外围的通勤距离与二氧化碳排放量并没有显著增加且小汽车的通勤距离逐渐缩短,表明多中心形态下的城市交通发展更具可持续性;(3)与中国相似发展水平的典型城市西安相比,印度班加罗尔的出行距离长、公交比例低、通勤二氧化碳排放量较大,说明高度的市场经济体制和低收入家庭比例较大导致的非紧凑、更加分散的城市扩张模式和大量使用汽油为燃料的两轮摩托车会带来较大的通勤二氧化碳排放量。为了实现城市交通的低碳与可持续发展、应对城市扩张、人口增加、经济增长、交通二氧化碳排放量增加带来的全球气候变化等一系列挑战,本研究提出以下对策建议:(1)在快速城市化、机动化、以及城市群的发展进程中,家庭拥有小汽车数量与通勤距离将不可避免的增加,为了减缓由此带来的通勤二氧化碳排放量的迅猛增加,需要多中心的发展模式、控制特大城市的规模、使与主城空间适度分离的新城或卫星城的产业开发、居住用地开发与公共交通建设同步进行、实现产城融合,并同时考虑交通拥堵的出行控制与整个城市群的公交优先,这样才能引导人们更多的使用公共交通与慢行交通,优化通勤交通结构,减少通勤距离与通勤二氧化碳排放量的增加幅度。(2)减缓城市交通二氧化碳排放量增加的关键是提高车辆的实载率与控制通勤距离的增加程度。因此,注重通勤方式向公共交通方式转变、鼓励合乘模式以及形成职住平衡是减缓城市通勤二氧化碳排放量增加程度的有效和重要措施。
[Abstract]:The development of low carbon transportation has become one of the strategic priorities change Chinese climate and realize the sustainable development of the city in the rapid urbanization and mobility in the process of search for the cause of environmental pollution and the crux of the problem is to deal with the city expansion, the population continued to increase, the challenges of rapid economic growth, explore the scientific path of city low carbon transportation development. This thesis uses four topics (the National Natural Science Foundation Project "city traffic parameter family transport carbon emission model in western city low carbon transportation development mode based on (51178055)," global warming effect on the Asia Pacific Network Project "spatial parameters on greenhouse gas emissions: a comparative study with India (city China ARCP2011-07CMY-Han), Australian Research Council Project" low carbon city in China configuration: single center, with the exploration of the spatial parameters of multi center city (ARCDP 1094801) ", the National Natural Science Foundation Project" low carbon oriented Beijing City Spatial Structure Optimization Research (41371007) ") of the collected data, in a period of rapid development of Chinese and India four typical city (Xi'an, Wuhan and Beijing China, India Bangalore) the city form, commuting behavior characteristics, quantity and sensitivity carbon dioxide emissions from commuting, spatial distribution characteristics are compared and researched systematically measured carbon city personal / family model is most suitable for general and commuting with the city were built, reveals the city commuter spatial distribution and impact of carbon dioxide emission factors and relations, found the city space and traffic development, commuting behavior, rules and trends carbon dioxide emissions commuter interaction. The research results can reduce carbon dioxide emissions of city traffic policy, the city low carbon transportation, low carbon city The city and the sustainable development of the city planning scheme and provide reference. This research is as follows: first, individual commuting carbon dioxide emissions is presented using Tyson method and traffic spatial overlay polygon calculation of traffic zone. This method avoids the family / personal / family space city commuter carbon dioxide emissions the statistical distribution of discontinuities, can the commuter district where the family set based on the characteristics of spatial statistics and description of commuter carbon dioxide emissions distribution. This method based on research found in the loop, the radiation surrounding the carbon dioxide emissions of commuter outlying areas of the city is greater than the center area, the spatial distribution characteristics and the amount of carbon dioxide emissions consistent with commuter family car. Second, non normal distribution characteristics of city personal / family commuter CO2 emissions based on the proposed mining Construction of personal / family commuter City carbon emission factor to explain the model with Tobit model. The method research based on the discovery of the occupation type family position and commuters to loop separation is an important factor that affects the amount of carbon dioxide emissions of city commuting; family has a small effect on commuter car emissions India city played the most important role is to the main factors of carbon dioxide emissions in China and India City commuting and income increase, international developed in city area impact on individual commuting CO2 emissions vary greatly; multi center city morphology has a significant impact on reducing CO2 emissions from individual / family commuting. Third, puts forward the calculation method of carbon dioxide emissions and emission factor analysis of commuting the amount of sensitivity. The method based on the capacity that causes the change of commuting Variation factor of carbon dioxide emissions of carbon dioxide emissions commuting factor change is far greater than the rate of fuel consumption caused by the change of carbon emissions to two; commuting range commuter CO2 emissions changes rate caused by changes in commuting distance is far greater than the changes of carbon dioxide emission factor caused by commuting results, commuting distance is the most sensitive factor of commuting emissions of carbon dioxide, followed by passenger volume is fourth, through the comparative study of the four cases of the city found: (1) multiple single center spread commuter carbon dioxide emissions city difference is greater than the area of the city, the difference between multiple population and economic index; (2) multi center city average personal / family commuting carbon dioxide emissions than the single center the city's value is low, a high proportion of short distance travel, non motorized travel ratio is high, the low proportion of car travel outside the city commute; The distance between carbon dioxide emissions and no significant increase and car commuting distance gradually shortened, shows that the center under the form of city traffic development more sustainable; (3) the typical city China with similar levels of development compared to Xi'an, India Bangalore, a long distance bus, the proportion of low carbon dioxide emissions, commuting more instructions the height of the market economy and a larger proportion of low-income families to non compact, more decentralized city expansion mode and use a lot of petrol for motorcycle fuel will bring greater commuting two carbon emissions. In order to achieve sustainable development and low carbon city traffic, with city expansion, population growth, economic growth, transportation the increase in carbon dioxide emissions caused by global climate change and a series of challenges, this study proposes the following suggestions: (1) in Rapid City, motor , and the city group in the development process, and the number of family owned car commuting distance will inevitably increase, in order to increase commuter CO2 emissions resulting from the slow, development mode requires multi center, control of large scale of the city, the industrial development and the main city of moderate separation space town or a satellite. Synchronize living land development and construction of public transportation, to achieve production integration of the city, and at the same time considering travel congestion and the whole group of city bus priority, so as to guide people to use more public traffic and slow traffic, optimize the structure of commuter traffic, commuting distance and reduce carbon dioxide emissions increase. (2) key city traffic carbon emissions to slow the increase is to increase the degree to improve vehicle loading rate and control of commuting distance. Therefore, the commuting square The transformation of public transport mode, the encouragement of combined mode and the formation of job balance are effective and important measures to slow down the increase of commuting carbon dioxide emissions.

【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X73

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