联合GRACE和水文气象数据研究自然与人为因素对区域水储量变化的影响

发布时间：2017-12-28 08:18

本文关键词：联合GRACE和水文气象数据研究自然与人为因素对区域水储量变化的影响　出处：《武汉大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本世纪初卫星大地测量技术确定时变重力场的突破性进展为水文研究提供了前所未有的机遇。GRACE卫星是首个可直接定量探测地表质量变化的重力卫星计划,在全球环境变化研究中得到了广泛应用。然而,由于难以获得真实的陆地水储量观测值,评估不同机构发布的GRACE产品,获得更优的反演结果是相关研究的基础和难点。随着GRACE数据的积累和可靠性的增加,联合其它资料深入挖掘GRACE在水文学、大地测量学、海洋学、气候学等科学研究中的作用成为当前研究的热点问题。本文围绕GRACE水文应用这一主线,研究了 GRACE时变重力场模型不确定性评估方法,建立加权组合模型,并综合水文、气象、气候等多种资料研究自然和人为因素对中国大陆地区及典型区域水储量变化的影响。论文主要工作和成果如下:论文首先从地表质量与重力场的关系出发,系统地论述了 GRACE时变重力场反演地表质量变化的球谐系数法,包括空间滤波方法及恢复泄漏信号的尺度因子法。建立了基于广义三角帽(TCH)的GRACE时变重力场模型不确定性评估方法,并根据不确定性计算相应的权值,建立加权组合模型,为时变重力场模型的选取提供参考。从水文学的角度出发,基于水量平衡方程和水文守恒方程,阐述了 GRACE在水文学应用中的理论和方法,重点介绍了跨流域区域水文特性,给出了多指标确定干旱特征的方法,为开展GRACE水文应用研究提供基础。评估了五种GRACE产品(CSR、GFZ、JPL、HUST和GRGS)在中国大陆地区的不确定性,并分析水储量变化的多尺度特征。研究结果表明:①GLDAS Noah计算的尺度因子能更好地恢复沿海地区的泄漏信号,CLM模型则能较好的恢复主要河流的水文信息;②中国大陆地区水储量变化具有明显的气候特征,其中,热带季风气候区水储量波动最大,其次是亚热带季风区。相比于水文模型(GLDAS和WGHM),GRACE能更好地反映不同气候类型区的水文特征;③CSR、GFZ、JPL、HUST和GRGS在中国大陆地区的不确定性的RMS分别为13.2mm、25.8mm、31.3mm、26.0mm和58.5mm。扣除周期和趋势信号后,五个模型的不确定性均有所降低;④水储量变化趋势明显的区域有:华北地区、青藏高原东南部和天山地区水储量呈明显减少趋势;青藏高原中部、四川盆地、东南沿海和东北地区水储量呈明显增加趋势。其中,华北地区秋季水储量减少显著,东南沿海地区冬季水储量增加明显。基于互相关分析探讨了中国大陆地区水储量非季节变化与ENSO、IOD和PDO的遥相关关系。结果表明:①中国东南沿海和东北地区水储量变化受ENSO的影响较大,为正相关;西南地区、青藏高原西南部、天山一带水储量变化与ENSO呈负相关。GRACE与ENSO的相关性通常大于降雨与ENSO的相关性,并具有更长的时滞;②长江中游水储量变化受IOD的影响显著,不存在时滞;青藏高原中部、阿尔泰山一带和华北地区的时滞约为2-8个月。水储量变化对IOD的响应通常更快,当IOD和ENSO事件同时发生时,对于同时受二者影响的区域,IOD起主导作用;③西南地区、青藏高原西南部和东北地区水储量变化受PDO影响较大,前二者呈负相关,时滞约为0-3个月,后者呈正相关,不存在时滞。当ENSO和PDO事件同时发生时,由于PDO的调制作用,可能会改变水储量对ENSO的响应机制。针对跨流域区域复杂的水文过程,以四川盆地为例,联合局地降雨、水文模型、河流水位等资料研究了四川盆地水储量变化特征及其与太平洋、印度洋气候异常的联系。研究发现:①四川盆地水储量变化与降雨、相邻河流水资源补给均存在密切联系,降雨增加使得四川盆地水储量呈增加趋势,速率约为6.0mm/year。然而,2006年和2011年严重干旱事件造成盆地水储量短期严重的亏损,且相邻河流对四川盆地水储量亏损的贡献有所不同;②2003/01-2012/07期间,IOD与盆地水储量变化呈负相关(r=-0.66),ENSO的影响则较弱(r-0.22)。然而,2012/08-2015/01期间,可能受PDO调制作用的影响,盆地水储量与IOD/ENSO均转为正相关,且ENSO的影响更大(r=0.84)。针对大范围岩溶水储量变化难以监测和模拟的问题,以西南岩溶为例,研究了严重干旱事件和龙滩水库蓄水对岩溶水储量变化的影响。结果表明:①2003-2013年西南岩溶水资源增加了 44.55km3,其中龙滩水库蓄水贡献达36.4%。2009-2010和2011年干旱事件造成岩溶水储量严重的亏损,亏损量分别达到208.8km3和287km3;②GRACE能很好地探测到龙滩水库蓄水过程,且水库蓄水与岩溶区秋冬季水储量变化的相关性强于降雨,夏季水储量则主要受降雨的影响;③由于西南岩溶区复杂的水文地质条件,TCH成为获得可靠岩溶水储量变化的有效方法;④在西南岩溶干旱评估中,综合气象干旱指数CI(帕尔默干旱指数PDSI)低估(高估)了干旱的严重性,GRACE非季节性水储量亏损成为评估岩溶区干旱的一种有效的指标。综述所述,本文开展的GRACE水文应用研究,为GRACE数据处理和模型应用提供参考,为跨流域水文循环提供更多信息,为岩溶水文研究展示了一种新的途径,有助于理解我国水储量变化对极端气候事件的响应机制。
[Abstract]:The breakthrough of the satellite geodetic technology to determine the time-varying gravity field at the beginning of this century has provided unprecedented opportunities for hydrology research. GRACE satellite is the first gravity satellite program to detect the change of surface quality directly. It has been widely used in the research of global environmental change. However, because it is difficult to get the observed value of the real land water reserves, it is the basic and difficult research to evaluate the GRACE products released by different agencies and get better inversion results. With the accumulation and reliability of GRACE data, it is a hot topic of research to combine other data and dig into the role of GRACE in hydrology, geodesy, oceanography and climatology. This paper focuses on the application of the GRACE hydrological line, gravity model uncertainty assessment method of GRACE, the establishment of a weighted combination model, and integrated hydrological and meteorological and climate data of natural and human factors of Chinese in mainland China and typical regional water storage variation. The main works and achievements of the paper are as follows: first, from the relationship between the surface quality and gravity field, the spherical harmonic coefficient method, which includes the spatial filtering method and the scale factor method for restoring the leakage signal, is systematically discussed in the paper. The GRACE time-varying gravity field retrieves the surface quality change. The uncertainty evaluation method of GRACE time-varying gravity field model based on generalized triangle cap (TCH) is established. According to the calculation of the corresponding weights of uncertainty, a weighted combination model is established to provide reference for the selection of time-varying gravity field models. Starting from the point of view of hydrology, water balance equation and conservation equation based on the hydrological, expounds the theory and methods of GRACE in hydrology application, focuses on the regional inter basin hydrological characteristics, the drought characteristics of multi index method are given, and provide a basis for carrying out research on GRACE hydrological application. The uncertainty of five kinds of GRACE products (CSR, GFZ, JPL, HUST and GRGS) in the mainland of China was evaluated, and the multi-scale characteristics of the change of water reserves were analyzed. The results show that: 1. GLDAS Noah scale factor calculation can better restore the leak signal in coastal areas, hydrological information CLM model can better restore the main river; water storage changes, the China area has obvious characteristics of climate, the tropical monsoon climate zone water reserves the biggest fluctuations, followed by the subtropical monsoon zone. Compared with hydrological models (GLDAS and WGHM), GRACE can better reflect the hydrological characteristics of different climate types. 3. The RMS of CSR, GFZ, JPL, HUST and GRGS in mainland China is RMS, 25.8mm, 13.2mm, and "Ho" respectively. After deducting the cycle and trend signal, five model uncertainties are reduced; the water storage changes trend obvious region: North China, water storage and the southeastern part of Tianshan area of Tibetan Plateau is decreasing; the central part of the Tibetan Plateau and the Sichuan basin, the water reserves in southeast coastal and northeast region was significantly increased. In the North China, the autumn water reserves decreased significantly, and the winter water reserves in the southeast coastal areas increased significantly. Based on cross correlation analysis, the teleconnection relationship between the non seasonal change of water reserves and ENSO, IOD and PDO in the mainland of China is discussed. The results showed that: (1) the change of water reserves in Southeast China and Northeast China is positively correlated with ENSO, and the change of water reserves is negatively correlated with ENSO in the southwest, Qinghai Xizang Plateau and Tianshan area. The correlation between GRACE and ENSO is usually greater than the correlation between rainfall and ENSO, and has a longer delay. 2. The change of water reserves in the middle reaches of Yangtze River is significantly affected by IOD, and there is no time lag. The time lag is 2-8 months in the central Tibetan Plateau, the Al Taishan area and the North China. The response of water storage changes of IOD usually faster, when the IOD and ENSO events occur at the same time, for at the same time by the two regional effects, IOD plays a leading role; water storage changes in southwestern regions of Qinghai Tibetan Plateau, southwest and northeast area was affected by PDO, was negatively related to the former two, a delay of about 0-3 the latter month, was positively related to delay does not exist. When the ENSO and PDO events occur simultaneously, the modulation of PDO may change the response mechanism of the water reserves to the ENSO. In view of the complex hydrological processes in the inter basin area, taking the Sichuan basin as an example, combined with local rainfall data, hydrological models and river water level data, we studied the characteristics of water storage in Sichuan basin and its relationship with the climate anomalies in the Pacific and India oceans. It is found that: (1) the change of water storage in Sichuan basin is closely related to rainfall and the recharge of water resources in adjacent rivers. The increase of rainfall makes Sichuan basin water reserves increase and its rate is about 6.0mm/year. However, in 2006 and 2011 severe drought events caused by basin water reserves serious short-term losses, and the adjacent river in Sichuan basin water storage loss contribution is different; the 2003/01-2012/07 period, IOD was negatively correlated with the variation of water storage basin (r=-0.66), ENSO (r-0.22) effect is weaker. However, during the period of 2012/08-2015/01, the water reserves in the basin may be positively correlated with the IOD/ENSO, and the effect of ENSO is greater (r=0.84). In view of the problem that it is difficult to monitor and simulate the variation of water storage in large fan, taking southwest karst as an example, the influence of severe drought events and Impoundment of Longtan Reservoir on the change of karst water reserves is studied. The results show that: (1) the karst water resources in Southwest China increased by 44.55km3 in 2003-2013 years, and the contribution of Longtan Reservoir to water storage was 36.4%. 2009-2010 and the 2011 drought events caused serious loss of karst water reserves, the amount of the loss reached 208.8km3 and 287km3; the GRACE can easily detect the storage process of the reservoir, and the correlation between autumn and winter season karst reservoir water storage and water storage changes in the strong rainfall, Xia Jishui reserves is mainly affected by the rainfall; the karst area southwest complex hydrogeology
【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：P332

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