环境变化对区域水循环要素及水资源演变影响的研究

发布时间：2018-01-02 03:00

本文关键词：环境变化对区域水循环要素及水资源演变影响的研究　出处：《天津大学》2015年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：气候变化和下垫面变化是流域环境变化的两个主要方面,流域环境的变化已导致水资源发生了改变。研究环境变化对区域水循环要素及水资源演变的影响,不仅对缓解和适应环境变化的有关措施和行动具有重要的科学支撑价值,而且对水资源科学管理具有重要的实践意义。本文选取滦河潘家口水库上游流域为研究对象,分析流域水循环要素的时空变化规律,并结合降水-径流多元回归模型和流域SWAT分布式水文模型,分别研究流域下垫面变化和气候变化对流域水资源情势的影响。主要研究内容及成果如下:(1)运用Mann-Kendall检验法、滑动平均法对滦河流域的气温、降雨量时序变化的趋势性进行了检验;采用统计学方法,对气温、降雨量的年内年际变化等演变特征进行了分析。结果显示:1957~2012年滦河流域年平均气温总体呈上升趋势,气温年内周期性变化明显,各月份平均气温差异较大。1957~2012年滦河流域年平均降水量呈减少的趋势,流域降水量年内分配具有明显的季节性。(2)利用土地利用综合程度指数、时空演变模型、转移矩阵、动态度模型、空间分析模型等方法,探讨滦河流域土地利用的趋势变化、转移方向的变化、数量变化等演变特征。结果表明:从土地利用程度综合指数及时空演变模型的角度来看,1970~1980年处于发展期,而1980~2000年、2000~2004年处于调整期或衰退期。从转移矩阵、地类流向及来源方向进行分析可知,前两个时段各地类多数来源于自身并流向自身。从动态度模型来看,2000~2004年转移速率与新增速率最大,各地类间变化最为频繁。(3)在解译NCEP再分析数据资料的基础上,估算了海滦河流域上空1948~2010年的水汽含量及水汽通量,并利用线性滑动平均法和线性趋势回归分析方法,探讨海滦河流域上空水汽含量及水汽通量的时空变化规律。据计算结果可知,海滦河流域近63年平均水汽含量变化非常明显,虽然呈波动变化,但总体呈下降趋势。四季水汽含量占全年的水汽含量的比例分别为春季19.31%,夏季50.33%,秋季22.91%,冬季7.45%。结果表明,海滦河流域水汽通量变化趋势与水汽含量变化趋势相似,海滦河流域的纬向水汽输入远远大于经向水汽输入。(4)考虑滦河流域三道河子水文站控制流域的降水-径流相关特性,基于流域1961~2011年实测月降雨、月径流数据资料,利用降水-径流双累积曲线及K-S双样本检验的结果,分别建立了流域丰水期和枯水期的降水-径流多元回归模型。应用该模型,分别探讨流域降水的丰枯变化和下垫面变化对径流的影响。结果表明,在1961~1983年的下垫面条件下,相比于1961~1983年间的降水丰枯特征,1984~1999年、2000~2011年间降水的丰枯变化使得流域径流分别增加了8.08%和减少了25.34%;在1961~1983年的降水条件下,相对于1961~1983年的下垫面条件,1984~1999年、2000~2011年间的下垫面的改变使得流域径流分别减少了19.40%和43.16%。(5)构建了滦河流域SWAT分布式水文模型,模型在率定期和验证期的相关系数均在0.70以上,说明该模型能够满足模型模拟的精度要求。在该模型的基础上,分析流域土地利用变化特征、确定流域降雨的趋势变化并剔除其影响,探讨流域土地利用变化对水资源情势的影响。结果显示,由于退耕还林、退耕还草以及城市化进程加快的地类变化的趋势,仅由于土地利用/覆被变化导致流域年径流量同比减少了58.55%。该结果表明,土地利用变化对滦河流域水资源情势有较大的影响。(6)基于流域分布式水文模型,并运用时间序列分析法及任意假定法设计气候情景试验,研究流域气候变化对水资源情势的影响。结果显示:在气温升高1oC或2oC情景下,径流量变化率分别为-7.11%和-9.11%;日均降水量增加或减少10%时,流量变化率分别为17.56%和-33.03%。在气温增加1oC或2oC、降水增加10%的情景下,径流量变化率分别为15.17%和13.19%。结果表明,降水量对滦河流域径流的变化起着主导作用,温度的影响较小。
[Abstract]:Climate change and the change of the underlying surface are two main aspects of watershed environmental changes, changes in ecological environment has led to changes in water resources. The study of environmental changes on regional water cycle factors and evolution of water resources, not only the relevant measures and actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change has important scientific value and support. It has important practical significance to the scientific management of water resources. This paper selects the upstream Luanhe River Panjiakou Reservoir as the research object, analysis of temporal and spatial variation of water cycle factors in river basin, combined with the rainfall runoff regression model and watershed distributed hydrological model SWAT, respectively studies the influence situation of watershed underlying surface change and climate change on water resources in the basin the main research contents and results are as follows: (1) the Mann-Kendall inspection method, the method of moving average temperature of Luanhe River Basin, rainfall time series change trend The potential of the inspection; by using statistical methods on temperature, evolution characteristics of interannual variation within a year of rainfall were analyzed. The results showed that 1957~2012 in Luanhe River Basin average annual temperature of the overall upward trend, cyclical changes in temperature, average air temperature of each month in the larger.1957~2012 years the average annual rainfall in Luanhe River basin the decreasing trend of precipitation distribution of the year has obvious seasonal. (2) using the comprehensive index of land use degree, spatio-temporal evolution model, transfer matrix, dynamic model, spatial analysis model and other methods, to explore the trend of land use change in Luanhe River Basin, change direction, the evolution character of quantity etc. from the model. The results showed that the comprehensive index of land use degree and spatio temporal evolution perspective, 1970~1980 years in development period, 1980~2000 years, 2000~2004 years in a period of adjustment or recession. From the transfer matrix, analysis of the types of flows and sources, the first two hours of the most from their own. And the flow from the dynamic model, the maximum transfer rate of 2000~2004 and the new rate, around the inter class changed most frequently. (3) based on the interpretation of the NCEP reanalysis data on the estimation of water vapor content and water vapor flux over the sea of Luanhe River Basin during 1948~2010, and the linear moving average method and linear trend regression analysis method to investigate the temporal and spatial variation of Luanhe River Basin over the sea water vapor content and water vapor flux. According to the results, the sea of Luanhe River Basin in the recent 63 years, the average water vapor content is very obvious, though fluctuated, but the overall downward trend. Four water vapor content accounted for the proportion of the annual water content were 19.31% in spring, 50.33% in summer, 22.91% in autumn and winter of 7.45%.. The results show that the sea Luan River Basin water vapor flux and water vapor variation tendency is similar, the Hailuanhe Valley zonal water vapor input is far greater than the meridional water vapor input. (4) consider the Luanhe River Basin three control sub river basin hydrological station rainfall runoff correlation, watershed 1961~2011 measured monthly rainfall based on the monthly runoff data, using precipitation runoff cumulative curves and K-S two sample test results, the basin dry season and flood season rainfall runoff regression model was established. Using this model, respectively to investigate the effects of wet and dry change of rainfall and underlying surface change on runoff. The results showed that the surface conditions in 1961~1983 next, compared to 1961~1983 years of precipitation, 1984~1999, runoff change between 2000~2011 precipitation makes runoff were increased by 8.08% and reduced by 25.34%; in 1961~1983 years under rainfall conditions, With respect to the underlying conditions, 1961~1983 years 1984~1999 years 2000~2011 years, the underlying surface because of the change of runoff decreased by 19.40% and 43.16%. (5) to construct the SWAT distributed hydrological model of Luanhe River Basin, the correlation coefficient in the model calibration and verification period were above 0.70, which shows that the model can meet the requirements of the model simulation precision. On the basis of the model, analysis the characteristics of land use change basin, determine the trend change of rainfall and eliminate the effect of land use change on the water resources situation. The results showed that the conversion of farmland to forests, returning farmland to grassland and the change of city to speed up the process of the kind of trend, because only land use / cover change in annual runoff decreased by 58.55%. the results showed that the land use change has great impact on water resources in the Luanhe River Basin (6) based on the current situation. The domain of distributed hydrological model, and the application of time series method assumes that design climate scenario test method and the arbitrary analysis of watershed impacts of climate change on water resources situation. The results showed that when the temperature increased 1oC or 2oC scenarios, the runoff rates were -7.11% and -9.11%; average daily precipitation increase or decrease 10%, flow the change rate is respectively 17.56% and -33.03%. increased 1oC or 2oC in temperature, precipitation increased 10% scenarios, the runoff rates were 15.17% and 13.19%.. The results show that precipitation plays a dominant role on the change of the runoff, temperature has little effect.

【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P339;TV213

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