长三角地区土地利用变化的生态系统服务响应与可持续性情景模拟研究

发布时间：2018-01-06 07:31

  本文关键词：长三角地区土地利用变化的生态系统服务响应与可持续性情景模拟研究　出处：《华东师范大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 土地利用 可持续 情景模拟 生态系统服务 长三角

【摘要】：土地利用变化对生态系统服务的影响是景观生态学、地理学和环境管理学领域研究的热点与前沿领域,从生态系统服务对土地利用变化响应角度审视区域土地利用的可持续性,构建生态系统服务与土地利用规划管理之间的关联,对提升区域土地利用管理的综合效能和生态系统服务保护具有重要的理论与应用价值。长三角社会经济发展与自然资源分布空间异质性较强、土地利用变化复杂,对该地区进行土地利用管理与生态系统服务耦合研究面临诸多挑战。论文依据土地利用变化与生态系统服务变化相互作用的基本规律,分析土地利用变化对生态系统服务的影响,从生态系统服务脆弱性、供需平衡和空间权衡三个方面评价土地利用变化对生态系统服务可持续性的影响,对土地利用变化的生态系统服务响应进行了较为系统的探析。通过构建基于系统动力学模型和CLUE-S模型耦合的研究方法体系,将生态系统服务与土地利用管理进行关联,开展基于生态系统服务的土地利用可持续性情景模拟研究。论文主要工作与研究结论概括为以下几个方面:(1)以长三角为案例研究区域,采用多尺度分析方法,宏观尺度上分析了分析1990-2010年区域土地利用数量变化引起的生态系统服务稀缺性和空间异质性,微观尺度上分析了典型城市化区域景观格局变化对生态系统服务功能的影响。研究结果表明,①1990-2010年长三角土地利用变化整体表现为农业用地大量转出和城市建设用地大量转入的典型城市化特征,江苏省和上海市等平原河网地区城市建设用地快速增加导致农业用地、水域和草地面积呈急剧减小趋势,土地利用数量变化引致生态系统服务价值呈快速降低趋势,其中,供给服务价值降低了7.4%,调节服务价值降低1.4%,支持服务价值降低4.1%,总的生态系统服务价值降低2.0%,土地利用变化引起区域生态系统服务稀缺;②长三角生态系统服务价值空间分布和结构组成受土地利用变化影响,表现为城镇建成区生态系统服务价值显著偏低,而城郊地区生态系统服务价值偏高的梯度变化特征,其中,调节服务价值的梯度变化最为显著。区域生态系统服务价值空间分布严重失衡,城市建成区生态系统服务价值普遍偏低。未来土地利用规划管理过程中应加强对调节服务价值和支持服务价值的重视,深入探讨相应的规划管理与保护措施;③长三角高度城市化区域土地利用格局变化以农田和自然植被覆盖景观的斑块面积减少和破碎化为主,城镇建设用地平均斑块面积增大且呈聚合发展趋势,斑块面积较小的河流景观大量消失,引致各类型生态系统服务功能均呈下降趋势。(2)从生态系统服务供需平衡、脆弱性和空间权衡视角,分析了长三角土地利用变化的生态系统服务响应,以此为基础进行区域生态系统服务可持续性评价。研究结果表明,①脆弱性响应方面。长三角地区生态系统服务脆弱性空间格局表现为太湖流域高度城市化地区和东南沿海地区等级较高,南部山地丘陵地区和北部江苏省沿海地区脆弱性等级相对较低。不同脆弱性等级空间分布由城市中心区域向城郊递减,梯度变化特征明显。建议通过调整土地开发利用方式与强度降低长江沿岸城市群和杭州湾地区生态系统服务的暴露程度,通过完善城市市政基础设施建设提升系统适应能力,加强城市生态基础设施建设降低系统敏感性,依托长三角区域总体规划和长江经济带发展规划协同推进以上规划管理措施,以降低区域生态系统服务的脆弱性。②供需变化响应方面。1990-2010年间长三角地区生态系统服务供给能力下降约3.25%,消费需求上升约12.55%,供需差缩减23.44%,各类型生态系统服务供给能力持续下降而消费需求不断上升,整体向供需失衡方向发展,且空间上供需失衡不断蔓延,高度城市化区域生态系统服务消费需求的增加与供给能力的衰退呈集聚状态,供需失衡地区的面积比重由1990年的24.20%上升至2010年的33.91%,建议未来应综合考虑区域生态系统服务供需特征,严格限制环太湖、杭州湾等强消费需求类型区的城市建设用地扩张,合理发展江苏省中部和长江沿岸弱消费需求类型区和供需平衡类型区,重点恢复弱供给能力区,保护并补偿长三角南部山地丘陵、淮河-洪泽湖地区等强供给能力类型区。针对长三角生态系统服务供需失衡的变化趋势,一方面,建议通过景观组成与结构优化,发挥景观的多重生态服务功能,以提升生态系统服务供给能力。另一方面,转变城市发展模式,提升城市发展质量,以降低对土地资源的消费需求;③空间权衡响应方面。长三角地区生态系统服务空间权衡主要发生在供给服务(食物生产)与调节服务簇(水质调节服务、侵蚀调节服务和洪水调节服务)之间,北部是以供给服务为主导的权衡,而南部是以调节服务为主导的权衡,且权衡强度南部高于北部,其中,北部主要河湖和沿江沿海岸带权衡强度高于其他陆域地区。针对长三角生态系统服务空间权衡的格局特征,建议未来突破行政区划分割,从宏观规划尺度考虑权衡强度与方式的空间异质性,对权衡强度较低的环太湖、杭州湾等高度城市化区域实施精细化发展,限制浙江省南部山地丘陵地区、长三角主要河湖水域等高权衡强度地区的开发利用,推进长三角地区生态系统服务一体化管理,减少由于规划管理地域分割导致的生态系统服务权衡。在规划实施过程中,一方面考虑利益相关方的决策参与,基于生态系统服务供需关系实施生态补偿;另一方面,需识别时间尺度上生态系统服务权衡特征,避免短期规划形成长期不可逆性影响。④可持续性评价方面。长三角地区生态系统服务可持续性具有显著空间异质性,南部浙江省山地丘陵地区可持续性最强,对维持整个长三角地区的生态系统服务功能具有重要作用,其次为长江沿岸和淮河-洪泽湖地区,以上两类区域应作为长三角宏观尺度实施生态系统服务保护的热点,适于结合区域生态红线划分设为重点生态保护区;杭州湾地区、长江沿岸和环太湖高度城市化区域生态系统服务可持续性最弱,适于在已有城市建成区范围内实施精细化发展,需采取生态系统服务供给恢复与重建措施,控制生态系统服务消费需求的过快增长。未来权衡平原河网地区城市化发展和农田河网交错覆盖地区生态系统服务保护是长三角实施土地利用一体化管理面临的重要挑战,生态系统服务可持续性空间格局分析可以为长三角地区生态红线划分、生态功能区划调整提供规划管理的参考依据。(3)尝试构建基于系统动力学模型和CLUE-S模型耦合的研究方法体系,将生态系统服务保护与区域土地利用规划管理相结合,探讨基于生态系统服务的土地利用可持续性情景模拟方法。结果表明,①在当前长三角城市群发展规划和各省市十三五国民经济发展规划情景下,限制南部山地丘陵地区的城市化扩张,实施长江沿岸、环太湖和淮河-洪泽湖地区的生态用地空间保护,限制其城市建设用地扩张,有利于在较长规划时期内获得较高的土地利用综合效益。而适当允许长江沿岸、环太湖地区和淮河-洪泽湖地区城镇建设用地开发利用,有利于在较短规划时期内获取较高的土地利用综合效益;②长三角社会经济发展与生态系统服务保护在规划时间维度上存在权衡,且权衡关系具有时间尺度效应,规划管理时间尺度的选取对二者的权衡具有重要影响,建议一方面需建立长三角生态保护协同管理与生态补偿机制,在规划管理过程中综合考虑各利益相关方的决策参与,对长江沿岸、淮河-洪泽湖生态廊道、长三角南部发挥生态屏障的山地丘陵地区进行生态补偿;另一方面需要从生态系统服务的供需平衡、空间权衡以及脆弱性角度深入探讨相关工程与管理对策措施。③从土地利用规划管理角度合并斑块面积较小的,保留斑块面积较大、形状规则的农业用地;保护河岸缓冲区范围内的农业景观和自然植被覆盖景观,并维持景观结构上呈集聚状态;保留平原河网地区农田与河网交错集聚形成的湿地景观,改造为郊野公园加以保护性利用,以上规划管理措施将有效提升并保护区域生态系统服务功能。
[Abstract]:The effects of land use change on ecosystem service is landscape ecology, geography and environmental science research fields and frontier areas, from the ecosystem services of the land sustainable use in response to changes in perspective of regional land use, construction of ecosystem services association between planning management and land use, has important theoretical and practical value on the improvement of regional land use protection service management comprehensive efficiency and ecological system. The Yangtze River Delta development of social economy and the strong spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of natural resources, land use change is complex, the area of land use management and service coupling ecosystem research faces many challenges. Based on the basic rules of land use change and ecosystem services change interaction the analysis of the impact of land use change on the ecosystem services, from ecosystem service The vulnerability, the balance of supply and demand and space weigh sustainable service of land use change in three aspects of evaluation of ecological system, the land use ecosystem services in response to changes are analyzed systematically. By constructing the system of research methods of system dynamics model and CLUE-S model based on coupling, the ecosystem services and land use Management Association, carried out the simulation research on sustainable utilization situation of ecosystem services based on land. The main work and conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) in the Yangtze River Delta as a case study area, using multi-scale analysis method, macro scale analysis of 1990-2010 years of regional land use quantity changes caused by the scarcity of ecosystem services and the spatial heterogeneity, micro scale analysis of the typical city of landscape pattern change on regional ecosystem service function Can the effect. The results show that the 1990-2010 typical city in Yangtze River Delta region land use change for the overall performance of a large number of agricultural land transfer and city construction land into a lot of the characteristics of city construction in plain river network area of Jiangsu province and Shanghai city land led to a rapid increase in agricultural land, water area and grassland area decreased sharply the amount of land use, due to the change of ecosystem service value was rapidly decreased, the supply of service value decreased by 7.4%, adjusting the service value decreased 1.4%, support service value decreased 4.1%, the total value of ecosystem services decreased 2%, regional ecosystem services caused by the scarcity of land use change; the Yangtze River Delta ecosystem service value and spatial distribution structure by the effect of land use change, as the urban ecosystem service value were significantly lower, while the suburban ecological area The characteristics of gradient change, high service value which gradient regulation value is the most significant. The serious imbalance of regional ecological service value spatial distribution system, city ecosystem service value is generally low. Land use in the future to strengthen the regulation of service value and service value should support the planning and management process, in-depth study of planning management and protection measures; the Yangtze River Delta city of high plaque area of farmland and natural vegetation landscape pattern change of regional land use reduction and fragmentation, the urban construction land to increase the average patch area and a polymerization development trend, small river landscape patch area caused by the disappearance of a large number, various types of ecosystem service function decreased. (2) from the supply and demand balance of ecosystem services, vulnerability and space trade-off perspective, analysis of the long triangle soil Service response ecological system of land use change, on the basis of regional ecosystem service sustainability evaluation. The results show that the aspects of vulnerability response. The ecological system of Yangtze River Delta Region Service Vulnerability spatial pattern of Taihu River Basin showed higher height city areas and southeast coastal area level, southern hilly region and the northern Jiangsu Province coastal vulnerability levels are relatively low. Different level of vulnerability spatial distribution decreased from the central area of the city to the suburbs, gradient variation obviously decreased. It is suggested that exposure of ecosystem services along the Yangtze River city group and Hangzhou Bay Area by the way and intensity of development and utilization of land adjustment, through the improvement of city municipal infrastructure construction to enhance the ability to adapt to the system to strengthen infrastructure construction, ecological city reduces the system sensitivity, relying on the Yangtze River Delta regional overall planning and The development planning of the Yangtze River Economic Zone to promote synergy over planning and management measures to reduce the vulnerability of regional ecosystem services. The supply and demand in response to changes in ecosystem service provision capacity during.1990-2010 in Yangtze River Delta region decreased by about 3.25%, consumer demand increased by about 12.55%, the difference between supply and demand reduction of 23.44%, continued to decline in all types of ecosystem service supply capacity and consumption demand rise to the overall direction of the development of the imbalance between supply and demand, and the spatial imbalance of supply and demand continue to spread, increase the height of city regional ecosystem services consumption demand and supply capacity of the decline in agglomeration state, the imbalance between supply and demand area proportion increased from 24.20% in 2010 to 33.91% in 1990, suggested that in the future should be integrated into the supply and demand of regional ecosystem services the characteristics, strictly limit the Taihu sea, Hangzhou Bay and other strong consumer demand types of city construction land expansion, reasonable The development of Jiangsu Province along the Yangtze River middle and weak consumer demand type region and the supply and demand balance type areas, focus on restoring the weak supply capacity, protection and compensation of the Yangtze River Delta southern hilly region of Hongze lake, Huaihe - strong supply capacity regions. The change trend of ecosystem services for the Yangtze River Delta, the imbalance of supply and demand on the one hand, suggested by landscape composition with the optimized structure, play multiple landscape ecological service function, to enhance the supply capacity of ecosystem services. On the other hand, change the mode of city development, improve the quality of city development, in order to reduce the consumption demand of land resources; the space tradeoff. Response service space ecological system of Yangtze River Delta region balance occurs mainly in food production (supply service) and adjust the service cluster (water quality regulation services, regulating services and erosion of flood regulation services) between the north is to supply the service oriented balance, and The south is to adjust the service oriented balance, and balance of Southern strength is higher than the north, the northern main rivers and lakes and along the coastal land area is higher than that of other weighing intensity. According to the pattern of Yangtze River Delta ecosystem service space tradeoff, suggestions for future breakthrough administrative division, considering the spatial heterogeneity and pattern from the strength balance the macro scale of planning, to weigh the lower strength of the Taihu sea, the Gulf of Hangzhou City area highly implementation of fine development, limits of hilly area in southern Zhejiang Province, the development and utilization of major rivers and lakes such as Yangtze River Delta high weighing intensity areas, promote the integration of management of ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Delta region, reduce the ecological planning management system geographical segmentation leads to the service. In the implementation of the plan, on the one hand, consider stakeholder participation in decision-making, ecosystem services based on supply and demand The relationship between the implementation of ecological compensation; on the other hand, need to identify the time scales of ecosystem services balance characteristics, avoid short-term planning to form a long-term irreversible effects. The sustainable evaluation. Yangtze River Delta ecosystem has significant spatial heterogeneity, the highest sustainability of the southern province of Zhejiang hilly area plays an important role in the Yangtze River Delta region to maintain ecosystem services, followed by the Yangtze River and Huaihe Lake area of Hongze, more than two kinds of Yangtze River Delta area should be the implementation of macro scale ecosystem services to protect the hot spots, suitable for combining with the regional ecological red division to focus on ecological protection zone; Hangzhou Bay area, along the Yangtze River and the Taihu high city regional ecosystem service sustainability for the weakest, establishment and implementation of fine development area in the existing city, need to take ecological system The restoration and reconstruction measures of service supply, control demand of ecosystem services consumption excessive growth. Weigh in plain river network area of city development and farmland protection of river ecosystem services future staggered coverage area is an important challenge for the implementation of the integrated management of land use in the Yangtze River Delta, the ecosystem service sustainable spatial pattern analysis for Eco red division in Yangtze River Delta provide reference for the management, planning and adjustment of the ecological function regionalization. (3) try to construct the system of research methods of system dynamics model and CLUE-S model based on coupling, and will serve to protect the regional ecological system of land use planning management combined, explore the ecosystem services of the land sustainable use scenario simulation based method. The results show that in the current the development planning of the Yangtze River Delta city group in different provinces and the 13th Five-Year national economic development planning scenarios, City limits in hilly area of Southern expansion, the implementation of the Yangtze River, Taihu ecological land space protection ring and the Huaihe Lake area of Hongze, limiting the city construction land expansion, is conducive to the comprehensive land use efficiency is higher in the longer period of time. While planning appropriate to allow the ring along the Yangtze River, Taihu urban construction area and the Huaihe Lake area of Hongze land development and utilization, is conducive to the comprehensive land use efficiency gets higher in a short period of planning; the Yangtze River Delta economic and social development and ecological protection in the service system planning time dimension in balance, and the trade-off with time scale effect, select the planning and management of time scales has important influence on the balance on the two, suggestions to establish the Yangtze River ecological protection coordinated management and ecological compensation mechanism, in the planning and management process in the comprehensive consideration of various stakeholders. Participation in decision making, along the Yangtze River, Huaihe Hongze lake ecological corridor, south of the Yangtze River Delta play ecological barrier in mountainous and hilly areas of ecological compensation; the need to balance supply and demand from the ecosystem services on the other hand, the spatial balance and vulnerability perspective discusses related engineering and management measures. From the view of land use planning and management a small plaque area, plaque retention area is larger, the shape of the rules of agricultural land; the scope of protection of riparian buffers in the agricultural landscape and natural vegetation landscape, and maintain landscape structure is gathering state; keep farmland in plain river network area and staggered River Wetland Landscape agglomeration, transformation of country park protected by. The above planning management measures will effectively improve and protect the ecosystem service.

【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X171;P901
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本文编号：1386896