不确定性条件下石羊河流域水资源承载力优化提升研究

发布时间：2018-01-09 13:01

本文关键词：不确定性条件下石羊河流域水资源承载力优化提升研究　出处：《中国农业大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：石羊河流域为我国甘肃省河西走廊地区第三大内陆河流域,流域内的主要行政区域为武威、金昌两市。流域内人口密度相对较高、经济繁荣,用水需求量巨大;此外,由于石羊河流域先天产水能力不足,水资源开发利用程度很高,区域内水资源管理、配置不合理,且存在严重的水资源浪费问题,造成了严重的水资源短缺及生态恶化等问题。总体上,流域内的社会经济规模己超出其水资源承载力的极限值,因此开展研究该流域内的水资源承载力的分析评价以及水资源承载力的优化提升研究具有重要的现实意义。同时,水资源系统是一个复杂的、开放的系统,存在着一系列不确定性因素,如随机性、模糊性、灰色性等。首先,本文将针对水资源承载力概念存在的问题进行分析研究;其次,以石羊河流域内武威市和金昌市为研究区域,结合不确定性参数、变量分析方法,分别建立不确定性条件下的水资源承载力优化提升模型;并且对得到的水资源承载力优化提升方案进行后优化分析,为决策者未来制定相应的水资源承载力提升方案提供相应的建议,本文的主要研究内容和结果如下:(1)由于水资源承载力概念自身固有的混沌性和模糊性,目前仍缺乏公认的定义。此外,伴随着科学技术等方面的发展,大家对水资源承载力概念有了更进一步的认识。因此,结合自身的研究内容,提出水资源承载力概念的认知;此外,以提出的水资源承载力概念的认知为指导,将生物学中"新陈代谢"概念引入到区域水资源承载力研究当中,提出区域水资源新陈代谢方法,即水资源投入到区域社会经济系统中,产出产品、服务、污染物的有机过程。基于提出的水资源承载力认知和水资源新陈代谢方法,在综合考虑研究区域水资源、社会经济系统现状的基础上,结合可持续发展原则,创建了相应的水资源承载力综合评级指标体系,以此综合分析评价研究区域水资源承载力及其可持续性利用状况。结果表明,武威市水资源承载力己达到其承载力能力极限值,无法承载其未来的社会经济发展。(2)在针对农业型区域的水资源承载力优化提升研究当中,处于上层决策层的政府部门的目标为区域水资源经济效益最大化,处于下层决策层的农民的目标为粮食产量最大化,故需要充分考虑不同决策层间用水部门的利益冲突。因此,基于水资源的不确定性和农业水优化管理中的双层规划问题,构建了模糊极值双层模糊规划模型。上层优化决策层目标选取经济效益最大化,下层优化决策层目标选取粮食产量最大化,在考虑粮食安全约束等约束条件基础上建立了不确定性条件下的农业水资源承载力优化提升模型。结果表明,优化之后其水资源承载力有了一定程度的提升。(3)在针对工业型区域的水资源承载力优化提升研究当中,不能仅仅只考虑经济方面的效益,还需要考虑社会方面的效益。因此,在综合考虑水量、水质的不确定性基础上,结合工业水优化管理中的多目标问题,构建了多目标随机分式目标规划模型。经济系统方面选取经济效益最大化为目标,社会系统方面选取就业人口最大为目标,建立了不确定性条件下的工业水资源承载力优化提升模型。结果表明,优化之后其就业人口和经济效益都有了相应的提升。(4)水资源利用效率与水资源承载力息息相关,故选用DEA方法和Malmquist指数方法对甘肃省14个城市的水资源利用效率进行时空分析,从侧面反映武威市和金昌市的水资源承载力情形。空间尺度上,分析研究区域不同城市间的水资源相对利用效率差异;时间尺度上,根据Malmquist指数来反映水资源利用效率在年际间的动态变化规律,分析水资源利用效率随时间变化的趋势;此外,运用DEA方法对各水资源承载力优化提升方案进行相应的后优化分析。在综合上述分析的基础上,为决策者选择合适的优化方案提供新的分析视角。
[Abstract]:The Shiyang River Basin in Hexi Corridor in Gansu province for third of China's largest inland river basin, the main administrative area within the watershed of Wuwei, Jinchang two city. The population density is relatively high, economic prosperity, water demand is huge; in addition, because of the Shiyang River basin hydropower production inherent power is insufficient, the development and utilization of water resources is very high area, water resources management, unreasonable allocation, and the problem of serious waste of water resources, serious water resources shortage and ecological deterioration problems. On the whole, the limit within the watershed scale of social economy has exceeded the carrying capacity of water resources value, has important practical significance to carry out the study of the analysis and evaluation the basin water resources carrying capacity and optimization of water resources carrying capacity to enhance the research. At the same time, water resources system is a complex, open system, there is a series of qualitative factors, such as random , fuzzy, gray and so on. Firstly, this paper will analyze the research aiming at the existing problems of water resources carrying capacity; secondly, in the Shiyang River Basin in Wuwei city and Jinchang city as the study area, with uncertain parameters, uncertain variable analysis method, under the condition of water resources carrying capacity optimization model are established; and the bearing capacity of water resources optimal lifting scheme after optimization analysis for decision makers to formulate future water resources to provide the corresponding suggestions of enhancing the carrying capacity, the main research contents and results are as follows: (1) the concept of water resources carrying capacity inherent chaos and fuzzy. There is still a lack of accepted definition. In addition, with the development of science and technology, we have a further understanding of the concept of water resources carrying capacity. Therefore, combined with their own research content, put forward water resources The source of the concept of carrying capacity of cognition; in addition, in order to put forward the concept of carrying capacity of water resources of the cognitive guidance of the biology "The new supersedes the old." to the introduction of the concept of regional water resources carrying capacity research, put forward the regional water resources: Water Resources The new supersedes the old. method into the regional social economic system, the output of products, services, organic the process of pollutants. Cognitive and water resources bearing capacity of the proposed method The new supersedes the old. water resources based on the research of regional water resources in the comprehensive consideration, situation of social economic system, combined with the principle of sustainable development, set up the corresponding water resources carrying capacity comprehensive evaluation index system, the comprehensive evaluation of regional water resources analysis and sustainability the utilization of bearing capacity. The results show that Wuwei city water resources carrying capacity has reached its capacity limit value, not bearing its future social and economic development. (2) in In view of the agricultural regional water resources carrying capacity optimization research, in the upper decision layer of government departments as the economic benefits of regional water resources, the underlying decision-making goal for the farmers the largest grain yield, so it needs to fully consider the conflict of interests of different decision-making departments. So the water, water resources the uncertainty of agricultural water management and optimization of the bilevel programming problem based on the fuzzy extremum fuzzy programming model. Select the maximum economic benefits the upper optimization decision layer, select the largest grain yield lower layer optimization target, considering the food security constraints on the establishment of agricultural water resources uncertainty conditions the bearing capacity optimization model. The results show that after optimization the carrying capacity of water resources has a certain degree of ascension. (3) in the industry The regional water resources carrying capacity optimization research, not only taking into account the economic benefits, but also need to consider the social benefits. Therefore, considering the uncertainty of water, water quality based on the combination of multi objective problems in management of water optimization industry, we constructed the Multi-objective Fractional stochastic programming model. Economic the system chooses economic benefit maximization as the goal, social system, selection of employment as a goal, the establishment of industrial water resources under uncertainty capacity optimization model. The results show that after optimization the employment population and economic benefits have been improved accordingly. (4) the utilization efficiency of water resources and water the carrying capacity of resources is closely related to the choice of DEA method and Malmquist index method for 14 city of Gansu province water resources utilization efficiency of temporal and spatial analysis, reflect the Wuwei city and gold from the side Chang City water resources carrying capacity. The spatial scale, analysis of relative efficiency difference between different city water resources in the study area; the time scale, to reflect the dynamic changes of the efficiency of water resources utilization in the inter annual analysis according to the Malmquist index, the efficiency of the temporal trend of utilization of water resources; in addition, the use of optimization the corresponding analysis after optimize scheme of DEA method for the water resources carrying capacity. Based on the above analysis, provide a new perspective for policymakers to choose suitable optimization programs.

【学位授予单位】：中国农业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV213.4

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