基于系统动力学的区域页岩气开发水资源承载力研究

发布时间：2018-01-10 06:05

本文关键词：基于系统动力学的区域页岩气开发水资源承载力研究　出处：《中国地质大学(北京)》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着全球能源供需矛盾加剧以及国家能源话语权的博弈,页岩气的勘探开发开始广受世界瞩目。美国作为目前世界上第一个也是唯一实现页岩气大规模商业性开采的国家,世界各国在进行前期评价和勘探开发先导试验过程中也主要学习和总结美国的相关技术和经验。目前,页岩气开采主要使用水力压裂法,即将大量水、化学物质以及泥沙的混合物采用高压的方式注入地下井,压裂页岩气区带附近的岩石构造,从而使页岩气释放到井口之中,从而实现页岩气开采的效率性和经济性。此外,大量的水资源还被用于清洗冷却钻头等页岩气开发相关过程当中。由于淡水资源的稀缺性以及生活用水、工业用水、农业用水等的用水需求不断提高,页岩气开发的水资源使用、处理和保护等问题越来越受到广泛关注。如何通过科学的模型和实证的数据分析水资源区域页岩气开发可承载的能力成为重要的研究课题。本论文从整体的角度分析页岩气开发水资源动力学系统,研究影响页岩气水资源需求量和淡水资源使用量的主要因素及其非线性关系,从而构建了集“水资源子系统”、“人口发展子系统”、“产业发展子系统”、“页岩气发展子系统”于一体的“区域页岩气开发水资源承载力系统动力学模型”。构建了复杂网络模型,从整体的视角分析各要素在模型中的角色、要素之间的关系以及网络整体结构特征。结合美国Marcellus页岩气地Bradford郡实证数据进行模型的检验、修正和不同情景下的仿真模拟,在此基础上总结和归纳了对中国页岩气开发及相关政策制定的借鉴和启示。通过本文的分析对中国页岩气开发具有以下启示:(1)页岩气开采过程中需要消耗大量的水资源,对于水资源缺乏的中国来说,将会对人口和产业发展用水形成一定的威胁,因此在开发前需要系统分析区域人口和产业发展情况以及页岩气单井开采水资源需求量,从而合理的安排页岩气开发计划。(2)通过情景模拟分析可以发现,页岩气的回流率、重新利用率和处理后污水的再利用对于页岩气开发的水资源承载能力具有明显的影响。因此对于中国来说,在开发过程中,要逐步提高页岩气水资源的回收技术,通过制定法律法规以及相关补贴政策,提高页岩气的回流率和重新利用率,鼓励采用区域处理后的污水进行页岩气开发,从而提高区域水资源对于页岩气开发的承载能力。
[Abstract]:With the global energy supply and demand contradiction and national energy right game, shale gas exploration and development to the attention of the world. The United States is currently the world's first and only to achieve large-scale commercial exploitation of shale gas in the country, all over the world in the early evaluation and exploration and development of the pilot test process is mainly studying and summing up the related U.S. technology and experience. At present, the exploitation of shale gas is mainly used in hydraulic fracturing, is a lot of water, chemicals and sediment mixtures by high-pressure way underground injection wells, rock tectonic zone near the fracturing of shale gas, so that the shale gas release to the wellhead, so as to realize the efficiency and economy of shale gas exploitation. In addition, a large amount of water is also used for cleaning cooling and other bits of shale gas development process. Due to the scarcity of fresh water resources and health Domestic water, industrial water, agricultural water, water demand increases, the development of shale gas and water resources use, treatment and protection issues more and more attention. How to through capacity model and empirical scientific data analysis of shale gas exploration and development of regional water resources bearing has become an important research topic. This thesis analyzes the shale gas dynamics system of water resources development from the perspective of the whole, and the nonlinear relationship study main factors affecting water resources demand for shale gas and water resource usage, so as to build a set of "water resources subsystem", "population development system", "system" development industry, "shale gas development subsystem" one of the regional water resources carrying capacity of shale gas development system dynamics model was established. The complex network model, analysis the elements of color angle in the model from the overall perspective, factors The relationship between the network and the whole structure. Combined with the test model of Marcellus shale gas to Bradford, the empirical data, simulation and correction under different scenarios, on the basis of summing up the reference and Enlightenment to develop Chinese shale gas development and related policy. Through the analysis of this paper has the following enlightenment to China shale gas development: (1) need to consume a large amount of water resources in shale gas mining process, for lack of water resources Chinese, will form a threat to the population and industry development of water, so in the development of the former system needs analysis of population and industry development as well as shale gas well exploitation of water resources demand, arrangement of shale gas development plan reasonably. (2) through scenario analysis can be found, the rate of return of shale gas, re utilization and wastewater for reuse Has obvious influence bearing capacity of shale gas development in water resources. So for China, in the process of development, gradually increase the recycling technology of water resources of shale gas, through the formulation of relevant laws and regulations and subsidies, improve the shale gas reflux rate and re utilization, encourage the use of regional sewage after treatment of shale gas in order to improve the development of regional water resources carrying capacity for shale gas development.

【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TV213.4;N941.3;TE37

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