基于大数据的战略预见研究

发布时间：2018-04-16 05:02

本文选题：大数据 + 方法论　；参考：《中共中央党校》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：本文通过对大数据的内涵、特征、前沿技术以及发展脉络的梳理,并结合利用微博大数据进行战略预见的案例研究,提出了基于大数据的战略预见,详细论述了该新型战略预见方法所带来的思维、方法论以及价值取向的变化。本文认为大数据有希望带来一个平行于自然世界和精神世界的数据世界。从战略预见的角度来看,基于大数据的预见是一种数据驱动的经验模型,它是一种不同于传统的逻辑加经验的预见模式。这种新的战略预见方法无疑将大大拓展人类认识和可预见的范围,并加强战略预见的工具理性,促进战略逻辑中价值理性和工具理性的统一。另外,本文对数据权、数据伦理以及大数据推进战略文明转型等问题进行了比较深入的哲学反思。下面将简述论文的行文结构。第一章将解析大数据的基本概念,发展历史及潜在风险。本章将介绍大数据的定义、特征、分类、主体以及前沿技术。其次,通过回顾大数据的发展历史,介绍科学研究的“第四范式”,即数据密集型科学。最后对大数据引发的一系列伦理问题进行考察。第二章首先讨论了战略预见的逻辑与意涵,并分析预见在战略思维、战略环境以及应对危机中的重要作用。其次,通过梳理三种经典的战略预见方法,展示了在大数据时代多种战略预见方法互补应用的重要性,以及基于大数据的战略预见的可能性。第三章首先分析了大数据作为战略预见的必要性。通过细述微博大数据进行战略预见的具体方法,展示了对“十八届五中全会”的网民态度以及对商业保险和社会保险替代关系这两组具体预见的案例。依托案例,本章总结了大数据作为战略预见的六项方法特征,分别是整体性、相关性、不确定性、网络化、众包化与人工智能化。第四章将对基于大数据的战略预见进行哲学反思。本章针对大数据作为战略预见的方法论和价值论进行思考。从方法论的角度来说,大数据作为战略预见不同于经典预见方法的逻辑加经验的模式,而是倡导一种数据驱动的经验模型,同时,大数据有希望带来平行于自然世界和精神世界的数据世界,将大为拓展人类认识和可预见的范围。在利用大数据进行战略预测的过程中,也要谨防数据拜物教的负面影响。从价值论的角度来说,本章讨论了大数据的技术价值与社会价值,以及新的战略制权——数据权的产生,还有大数据对人的自由全面发展的推动作用。论文完成之后,期望在战略运用方面对数据人才培养、新型智库建设、国家数据安全战略等问题提供有益的参考。最后,论文进行了总结与展望。
[Abstract]:By combing big data's connotation, characteristics, frontier technology and development context, and combining with the case study of strategic foresight based on Weibo big data, this paper puts forward the strategic foresight based on big data.The changes of thinking, methodology and value orientation brought about by the new strategic foresight method are discussed in detail.This paper holds that big data is hopeful to bring a data world parallel to the natural world and the spiritual world.From the perspective of strategic foresight, the foresight based on big data is a data-driven empirical model, which is different from the traditional logic and experience.This new method of strategic foresight will undoubtedly expand the scope of human understanding and predictability, strengthen the instrumental rationality of strategic foresight, and promote the unity of value rationality and instrumental rationality in strategic logic.In addition, this paper makes a deep philosophical reflection on the issues of data rights, data ethics and big data's promotion of strategic civilization transformation.The following is a brief introduction to the structure of the paper.The first chapter will analyze big data's basic concept, development history and potential risk.This chapter will introduce big data's definition, characteristics, classification, subject and frontier technology.Secondly, by reviewing big data's development history, this paper introduces the fourth paradigm of scientific research, that is, data intensive science.Finally, a series of ethical issues caused by big data were investigated.The second chapter discusses the logic and meaning of strategic foresight, and analyzes the important role of foresight in strategic thinking, strategic environment and crisis response.Secondly, by combing three classical strategic foresight methods, this paper demonstrates the importance of complementary application of various strategic foresight methods in big data's time, and the possibility of strategic foresight based on big data.The third chapter first analyzes the necessity of big data as strategic foresight.By expounding Weibo's specific method of strategic foresight, this paper shows the attitudes of netizens to the Fifth Plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee and the cases of commercial insurance and social insurance substitution.Based on the case, this chapter summarizes the six characteristics of big data as strategic foresight, which are integrity, relativity, uncertainty, network, crowdsourcing and artificial intelligence.The fourth chapter will carry on the philosophical reflection to the strategic foresight based on big data.This chapter thinks about big data's methodology and theory of value as strategic foresight.From a methodological point of view, big data, as a logical plus empirical model of strategic foresight different from classical foresight, advocates a data-driven empirical model, and at the same time,Big data hopes to bring the data world parallel to the natural world and the spiritual world, which will greatly expand the human understanding and predictable scope.In the use of big data in the process of strategic prediction, we should also guard against the negative impact of data fetishism.From the perspective of value theory, this chapter discusses big data's technical value and social value, as well as the emergence of a new strategic power, the right to data, and the role of big data in promoting the free and all-round development of human beings.After the completion of the paper, it is expected to provide useful reference for the training of data talents, the construction of new think-tank and the national data security strategy in the aspect of strategic application.Finally, the paper summarizes and prospects.
【学位授予单位】：中共中央党校
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TP311.13-02

【参考文献】