我国粮食价格政策调控有效性实证分析

发布时间：2018-01-05 03:25

本文关键词：我国粮食价格政策调控有效性实证分析　出处：《商业研究》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：随着我国粮食价格调控政策的实施,特别是2006年以来国家补贴的力度不断增大,粮食价格在频繁波动的同时呈现出不断上升的趋势,使得粮食价格调控有效性的争论日益激烈。本文利用国内与国际玉米、大米、大豆和小麦的月度价格数据,从协整的角度分析国内与国际粮食价格之间的联动关系,从国内粮食价格自身波动的角度分析和检验我国粮食价格政策调控的有效性。结果表明:在过去的十年中,我国政府对四大粮食价格的政策调控并不能带来粮食价格的平稳,政策调控有效性欠佳;国内与国际粮食价格没有表现出显著的协整关系;随着粮食价格调控程度的减弱,国内与国际粮食价格的协整程度逐渐增强,但国内与国际粮食价格相互影响的程度在品种上存在差异;国内大豆粮食价格波动存在集簇性、跨期传递效应和条件异方差特性,而玉米、大米和小麦价格波动的集簇性、跨期传递效应和条件异方差特性都不显著。我国政府应掌握好管理和调控的粮食品种与调控力度,培育粮食市场的功能和粮价的国际竞争力。
[Abstract]:With the implementation of China's grain price control policy, especially since 2006, the intensity of state subsidies has been increasing, grain prices in frequent fluctuations at the same time showing a rising trend. This paper uses the monthly price data of corn, rice, soybean and wheat to make use of the domestic and international monthly price data of corn, rice, soybean and wheat. This paper analyzes the linkage between domestic and international grain prices from the perspective of cointegration. This paper analyzes and tests the effectiveness of China's grain price policy regulation from the perspective of the fluctuation of domestic grain prices. The results show that: in the past ten years. Our government's policy control on the four grain prices can not bring about the stability of grain prices, and the effectiveness of policy control is not good. There is no significant cointegration relationship between domestic and international grain prices; With the decrease of grain price regulation and control, the degree of cointegration between domestic and international grain prices is gradually strengthened, but the degree of interplay between domestic and international grain prices is different in variety. Domestic soybean grain price fluctuation has cluster, intertemporal transfer effect and conditional heteroscedasticity, while corn, rice and wheat price fluctuation cluster. The intertemporal transmission effect and conditional heteroscedasticity characteristics are not significant. Our government should master the grain varieties and control dynamics to cultivate the function of grain market and the international competitiveness of grain price.
【作者单位】：佛山科学技术学院管理学系;
【基金】：广东省教育厅一般项目“国际粮食价格波动对国内市场传导的福利效应”,项目编号:2013WYXM0115 教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“基本农田保护经济补偿政策实施绩效与政策优化”,项目编号:15YJA790042
【分类号】：F323.7
【正文快照】： 一、引言粮食是人类生存的必需品,对其价格的研究和调控始终被各国政府和学者所重视。纵观我国粮食市场政府管制调控过程,可以分为以下几个阶段:市场化改革起步阶段(1978-1984),“双轨制”阶段(1985-1990),市场化改革深化阶段(1991-1993),宏观调控体系的探索阶段(1994-1997),

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