广东省主要农产品消费需求现状、趋势与对策

发布时间：2018-01-06 02:33

本文关键词：广东省主要农产品消费需求现状、趋势与对策　出处：《热带农业工程》2016年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：近年来,广东省主要农产品消费需求呈现新特征,主要农产品消费量走势各异,水稻与蔬菜的消费量平稳波动,食用油、肉类、水果和水产品消费总量均呈现不同程度的增长趋势。从消费结构角度看,城乡农产品消费结构存在较大差异,比如稻米、蔬菜城镇人均消费趋稳,农村居民消费开始下降。消费结构的转变导致了广东省主要农产品进出口情况转变,目前广东主要农产品进出口呈逆差状态,大部分小麦等粮食需从外省调入。采用GM(1,1)模型对广东主要农产品消费做出需求预测,发现未来10年的稻谷、蔬菜、食油、肉类、水果和水产品的消费需求均呈现平缓增加的趋势,并根据上述预测结果做出相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the consumption demand of main agricultural products in Guangdong Province presents new characteristics, the consumption trend of main agricultural products is different, the consumption of rice and vegetables fluctuates steadily, edible oil, meat. From the perspective of consumption structure, the consumption structure of agricultural products in urban and rural areas has great differences, such as rice, vegetables per capita consumption in cities and towns tend to stabilize. The consumption of rural residents began to decline. The change of consumption structure led to the change of the import and export of main agricultural products in Guangdong Province. At present, the import and export of main agricultural products in Guangdong is in a deficit state. Most of the wheat and other grain need to be transferred from other provinces. Using the GM1) model to forecast the consumption of main agricultural products in Guangdong province, and find the rice, vegetables, edible oil and meat in the next 10 years. The consumption demand of fruits and aquatic products is increasing slowly, and the corresponding policy suggestions are made according to the above forecast results.
【作者单位】：广东省农业科学院农业经济与农村发展研究所;
【分类号】：F323.7
【正文快照】： 广东省农产品消费主要呈现出3个特征:(1)总量居全国之首。随着广东城乡居民收入增长加快,人均农产品消费结构加快改变,农产品消费总量持续扩大,广东城乡农产品消费总量居全国之首。2013年,广东居民粮食共消费1 582.8万t,蔬菜共消费1 037.8万t,肉禽及其制品共消费348.1万t;(2)

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