我国城市蔬菜价格波动的实证分析

发布时间：2018-02-20 08:07

本文关键词： 蔬菜价格波动鲜菜消费价格指数非对称传导产业链价格传导　出处：《北方园艺》2017年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为了研究我国城市蔬菜价格波动趋势,了解影响蔬菜价格波动的主要因素,对全国36个大中城市居民的鲜菜消费价格指数进行分析,并选取大白菜、番茄、黄瓜、茄子、青椒5个蔬菜品种进行重点考察,利用X-12季节调整模型,将蔬菜价格的季节性因素剥离,运用非对称误差修正模型(APT-ECM)模型验证蔬菜价格的非对称传导,从产业链价格传导视角研究这5种蔬菜的集贸市场价格波动。结果表明:2009—2014年,我国36个大中城市居民鲜菜消费价格指数总体呈上涨趋势,从95.6增长到134.8,年均增长7.1%;秋冬季节,蔬菜供给量全年最低,蔬菜价格上涨到最高水平;从产业链价格传递视角来看,全国蔬菜批发市场价格与集贸市场价格之间的价格传递具有非对称性,批发市场价格的波动将会导致下游集贸市场价格更大幅度的波动;蔬菜生产成本的推动、蔬菜生产的季节性、政府的宏观调控等是引起我国城市蔬菜价格波动出现以上特征的主要影响因素。
[Abstract]:In order to study the trend of urban vegetable price fluctuation in China and to understand the main factors affecting the fluctuation of vegetable price, the consumption price index of fresh vegetable in 36 large and medium cities of China was analyzed, and Chinese cabbage, tomato, cucumber and eggplant were selected. Five vegetable varieties of green pepper were investigated emphatically. The seasonal factors of vegetable price were peeled off by using X-12 seasonal adjustment model. The asymmetric error correction model APT-ECM was used to verify the asymmetric conduction of vegetable price. From the perspective of industrial chain price transmission, the price fluctuation of these five vegetables in the market market is studied. The results show that the consumption price index of fresh vegetable in 36 large and medium-sized cities in China showed an overall upward trend from 95.6 to 134.8, with an average annual increase of 7.1 percent in autumn and winter seasons. The supply of vegetables is the lowest throughout the year, and the price of vegetables rises to the highest level. From the perspective of price transmission in the industrial chain, the price transmission between the wholesale market price and the market price in the whole country is asymmetric. The fluctuation of wholesale market prices will lead to greater fluctuations in the prices of downstream markets; the promotion of vegetable production costs and the seasonality of vegetable production, The government's macro-control is the main influencing factor that causes the fluctuation of vegetable price in our country.
【作者单位】：广东省农业科学院农业经济与农村发展研究所;内蒙古大学鄂尔多斯学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71563031) 广东省自然科学基金资助项目(S2013010013762) 内蒙古自治区自然科学基金资助项目(2015MS0714)
【分类号】：F323.7

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