特大型城市猪肉产销价格传导机制研究——基于北京市猪肉价格与外埠猪源地价格相关性分析

发布时间：2018-02-22 12:52

本文关键词： 猪肉消费猪肉价格价格传导生猪产业链猪源地价格　出处：《价格理论与实践》2017年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：猪肉作为一种主要消费品,在人民生活中占有重要地位。北京市猪肉需求量大,生猪外埠依存性高,是典型的猪肉输入区。因此,本文从区域流通的视角探究北京市猪肉价格的传导机制,主要运用协整检验和误差修正模型研究五大猪源地的仔猪及待宰活猪价格对北京市去皮带骨猪肉价格产生的影响。实证分析结果发现猪源地仔猪及待宰活猪价格对北京市猪肉价格具备良好的价格发现与引导关系,它们之间存在长期均衡关系,短期误差符合反向修正机制。除个别情况外,猪源地仔猪及待宰活猪价格是北京市猪肉价格显著的格兰杰原因。
[Abstract]:Pork, as one of the main consumer goods, plays an important role in people's life. Beijing has a large demand for pork and high dependence on live pigs, which is a typical pork import area. This paper explores the transmission mechanism of pork prices in Beijing from the perspective of regional circulation. Cointegration test and error correction model were used to study the effect of the price of piglets and live pigs to be slaughtered on the prices of Beijing pork without leash bone. The results of empirical analysis showed that the prices of piglets and live pigs to be slaughtered were found to be in the pig source area. Having a good relationship between price discovery and price guidance for pork prices in Beijing, There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between them, and the short-term error accords with the reverse correction mechanism. Except for some cases, the price of piglets from pig source and live pigs to be slaughtered is the significant Granger reason for pork prices in Beijing
【作者单位】：北京工商大学经济学院;
【基金】：北京市社会科学基金研究基地青年项目(13JDJGC053) 北京市教委社科计划面上项目(SM201410011009) 首都流通业研究基地项目(JD-YB-2017-024)资助
【分类号】：F323.7

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