贸易开放背景下中国肉类进口市场格局研究——基于产品异质性的实证分析

发布时间：2018-02-23 20:39

本文关键词： RSDAIDS模型 ECM-AIDS模型肉类进口需求　出处：《国际贸易问题》2017年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文基于2009—2016年的月度数据,运用区分来源的静态及动态AIDS模型估算中国分品种分来源的肉类产品进口需求弹性。从研究方法来看,对中国肉类进口市场进行局部可分性及产品加总性检验的结果显示,应将对不同品种、不同来源的肉类进口需求纳入同一个需求系统进行分析。协整检验结果表明,中国肉类产品进口与各影响因素之间存在长期协整关系,可建立ECM-AIDS模型。从实证结果来看,如果未来中国肉类进口支出保持增长趋势,对多数进口来源国的肉类进口额保持大幅增长将是未来一段时间必须要面对的现实;牛肉在各品种中增长潜力最大,羊肉最小;从进口来源国间的比较来看,除羊肉市场外,其他品种的主要进口来源国之间表现出显著的竞争关系。
[Abstract]:Based on the monthly data from 2009-2016, this paper uses static and dynamic AIDS models to estimate the elasticity of import demand for meat products from different sources in China. The test results of partial separability and product aggregation of Chinese meat import market show that the meat import demand of different varieties and different sources should be analyzed into the same demand system. The results of cointegration test show that the meat import demand of different varieties and different sources should be analyzed in the same demand system. There is a long-term cointegration relationship between Chinese meat product imports and various influencing factors. The ECM-AIDS model can be established. According to the empirical results, if China's meat import expenditure keeps increasing in the future, Maintaining a substantial increase in meat imports from most of the importing countries will be a reality that must be faced for some time to come; beef has the greatest growth potential among all varieties, while mutton is the smallest. From the point of view of the comparison between the importing countries, apart from the mutton market, There is a significant competitive relationship between the main source countries of imports of other varieties.
【作者单位】：中国农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：基金项目农业部“国家现代农业产业技术体系”(CARS-40-20)
【分类号】：F323.7;F752.61

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