中国农产品贸易条件再估算——基于种类变动视角

发布时间：2018-02-24 21:42

本文关键词： 农产品贸易条件种类进出口价格指数贸易福利　出处：《上海经济研究》2017年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：该文利用uncomtrade数据库HS6位目数据,基于种类变动视角测度了2002-2015年中国农产品贸易条件指数。结果显示:(1)考虑种类变动后,中国农产品贸易条件平均改善2.47%,且与固定种类下的贸易条件相比,长期趋势并未呈现明显的恶化特征;(2)进一步地,进口种类变动对贸易条件的改善起了主要作用,相对贡献率达到69.30%,而出口种类变动的相对贡献则仅为30.70%。因此,考虑种类变动对贸易的影响,不仅有利于我们正确理解进口的快速增长,无需过分担忧其对农产品贸易福利的负向影响;同时,提醒我们应更多关注中国农产品出口贸易结构的升级调整,通过满足消费者不断增长的多样化需求获取农产品出口的持续稳定发展。
[Abstract]:This paper uses the uncomtrade database HS6 bitmap data to measure China's terms of trade index of agricultural products from 2002 to 2015 from the perspective of category change. The results show that: 1) after considering the variety of agricultural products, The terms of trade of agricultural products in China have improved by an average of 2.47, and compared with the terms of trade under a fixed category, the long-term trend has not shown a marked deterioration. Further, the change in import types has played a major role in the improvement of the terms of trade. The relative contribution rate is 69.30%, while the relative contribution of export category change is only 30.70%. Therefore, considering the influence of category change on trade is not only helpful for us to correctly understand the rapid growth of imports, There is no need to worry too much about its negative impact on the welfare of agricultural trade. At the same time, it reminds us that we should pay more attention to the upgrading and readjustment of China's agricultural export trade structure. The sustained and stable development of agricultural exports is achieved by meeting the growing diversified needs of consumers.
【作者单位】：南京农业大学经济管理学院;南京农业大学中国粮食安全研究中心;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“完善国家粮食安全保障体系” 国家自然科学基金项目“劳动成本与资源约束背景下中国农业生产结构变迁与农产品比较优势动态研究”的资助 “江苏省优势学科”的支持
【分类号】：F323.7;F752.6

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