中国居民口粮消费特征变化及安全耕地数量

发布时间：2018-03-02 01:30

本文关键词： 农业粮食安全作物城乡居民口粮消费量中国健康与营养调查(CHNS) 口粮耕地保障面积　出处：《农业工程学报》2017年13期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：明晰中国口粮消费的变化特征是保障中国粮食安全的根本。全国尺度的中国健康与营养调查数据提供了多期的中国城乡居民口粮消费调查数据。文章利用食物成分表将中国健康与营养调查数据折算成原粮,分析1997-2011年中国城乡居民口粮消费的数量与结构变化特征,以期明晰中国城乡居民口粮消费的真实情景。结果表明:1)近年来中国城乡居民口粮消费量明显减少,1997-2011年间,中国城镇居民口粮消费量从168.4 kg/a下降到111.2 kg/a,农村居民从209.6 kg/a下降到131.5 kg/a,全国平均水平从196.6 kg/a下降到124.7 kg/a。以发达国家或地区口粮消费的125 kg/a稳定态为参考,中国城乡居民口粮消费的下降区间可能有限。2)城乡口粮消费的差距在缩小。1997-2011年间,中国城镇与农村居民的口粮消费差距由41.2 kg/a缩小为20.3 kg/a,而且两者也正由存在显著性差异向无显著差异转变,最终两者可能会归为统一值。3)2011年中国口粮绝对安全的耕地保障面积为2 691.6万hm2,约占1/4的基本农田面积。《全国种植业结构调整规划(2016-2020年)》稳定2020年稻谷、小麦8亿亩播种面积,极有可能会造成稻谷与小麦的生产过剩,产生口粮饲用或卖粮难的现象。
[Abstract]:Understanding the changing characteristics of China's food consumption is the fundamental to ensure China's food security. The national scale China Health and Nutrition Survey data provide multi-period survey data on food consumption of Chinese urban and rural residents. The data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey are converted into grain by table. This paper analyzes the characteristics of the quantity and structure of the consumption of rations between 1997 and 2011 in China's urban and rural residents, in order to clarify the real situation of the consumption of rations in China's urban and rural residents. The results show that the consumption of rations in China's urban and rural residents has significantly decreased in recent years. The ration consumption of Chinese urban residents decreased from 168.4 kg/a to 111.2 kg / a, rural residents decreased from 209.6 kg/a to 131.5 kg / a, and the national average decreased from 196.6 kg/a to 124.7 kg / a. The stable state of food ration consumption in developed countries or regions is taken as a reference. The gap between urban and rural rations consumption is narrowing in the period 1997-2011. The gap of rations consumption between urban and rural residents in China narrowed from 41. 2 kg/a to 20. 3 kg / a, and the difference between the two is changing from significant difference to no significant difference. In the end, both of them may be classified as unified value. 3) in 2011, the guaranteed area of absolutely safe cultivated land for China's rations was twenty-six million nine hundred and sixteen thousand hm2, accounting for about 1/4 of the basic farmland area. (< National Plantation structure Adjustment Plan 2016-2020) > > stable rice and 800 million mu of wheat sown area in 2020, It is very likely that rice and wheat will be overproduced, and it will be difficult to feed or sell grain.
【作者单位】：中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41571095,91325302) 中国工程院重大咨询项目:农业资源环境若干重大战略问题研究(2016-ZD-10)
【分类号】：F323.211;F323.7

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