蔬菜价格波动原因的实证分析——基于蔬菜国际贸易量变化的视角

发布时间：2018-03-02 05:16

本文关键词： 蔬菜价格波动进出口　出处：《中国市场》2016年40期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：以2008年1月—2015年10月蔬菜批发价格为样本,采用X12季节调整法和HP滤波分析法分析,发现蔬菜价格波动存在季节因素,剔除季节因素,蔬菜价格呈一直上涨趋势,以1998—2013年蔬菜产量、净出口量、蔬菜国内批发价格、出口单价数据为样本,进行回归分析,结果表明,蔬菜净出口量每增加(减少)1%,国际市场上蔬菜出口价格相应降低(上涨)0.012%,中国国内蔬菜批发价格降低(增加)0.009%;本期蔬菜供给量每增加(减少)1%,下一期国内蔬菜批发价格降低(增加)0.15%。
[Abstract]:Taking the wholesale price of vegetables from January 2008 to October 2015 as a sample, using X12 seasonal adjustment method and HP filter analysis method, it was found that seasonal factors existed in the fluctuation of vegetable price, excluding seasonal factors, the vegetable price showed a rising trend. Based on the data of vegetable production, net export volume, domestic wholesale price of vegetables and export unit price from 1998 to 2013, regression analysis was carried out, and the results showed that, For each increase in the net export volume of vegetables, the price of vegetable exports on the international market accordingly decreased (up 0.012%), and the wholesale price of vegetables in China decreased (increase 0.009%; increase the amount of vegetable supply in the current period; decrease 1%, the next domestic vegetable batch). Lower the price (increase by 0. 15%).
【作者单位】：河北北方学院信息科学与工程学院;

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