中国对东盟农产品贸易逆差研究
发布时间:2018-04-23 18:09
本文选题:农产品贸易 + 逆差 ; 参考:《广东外语外贸大学》2017年硕士论文
【摘要】:东盟是中国发展周边外交和对外经贸合作的优先方向,同时也是21世纪海上丝绸之路建设的必经之路。2016年,是中国与东盟建立对话关系25周年,双边经贸关系也开始从“黄金十年”迈向“钻石十年”。但是,经贸发展进程中也出现了一些不容忽视的问题:自1994年以来,中国对东盟的农产品贸易一直处于逆差态势,虽然近年来逆差有不断缩小趋势,但总体贸易逆差格局却从未扭转。文章以2002-2016年中国与东盟的农产品贸易现状为起点,首先,从进口、出口角度对比分析中国与东盟农产品贸易的波动情况,并尝试探究双边农产品贸易的特点;其次,在厘清中国对东盟农产品贸易逆差的相关影响因素的作用机制的情况下,通过引力模型和CMS模型从国家层面的人均收入差异、人民币实际汇率、国民总产值等因素与产业层面农产品竞争力、需求结构以及产品结构入手进行实证研究,得出:国家层面上,中国与东盟各国间的人均收入差距是影响中国对东盟农产品贸易逆差的首要因素,且人均收入差距的变化方向与逆差的波动方向相反,人民币汇率的影响作用次之;产品层面上而言,整体农产品贸易中,中国农产品竞争力低下,贸易结构的不甚合理是导致中国对东盟农产品贸易逆差的主要原因。分类农产品贸易中,2类和4类农产品贸易逆差的存在的主要原因来源于东盟农产品供给增加带来的增长效应。最后,提出相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:ASEAN is a priority direction for China to develop its peripheral diplomacy and foreign economic and trade cooperation, and it is also the only way to build the maritime Silk Road in the 21st century. 2016 marks the 25th anniversary of the establishment of dialogue relations between China and ASEAN. Bilateral economic and trade relations have also begun to move from the Golden decade to the Diamond decade. However, in the process of economic and trade development, there are also some problems that can not be ignored: since 1994, China's agricultural trade with ASEAN has been in a deficit situation, although the deficit has been shrinking in recent years. But the overall pattern of trade deficits has never been reversed. This paper starts with the current situation of agricultural trade between China and ASEAN from 2002 to 2016. Firstly, it analyzes the fluctuation of agricultural trade between China and ASEAN from the point of view of import and export, and tries to explore the characteristics of bilateral agricultural trade. In order to clarify the mechanism of the influence factors of China's agricultural trade deficit with ASEAN, through gravity model and CMS model, from the difference of per capita income at the national level, the real exchange rate of RMB, From the empirical research on the factors such as gross national product (GNP) and agricultural products competitiveness, demand structure and product structure at the industrial level, it is concluded that: at the national level, The per capita income gap between China and ASEAN countries is the primary factor that affects China's agricultural trade deficit with ASEAN, and the change direction of income gap is opposite to the fluctuation direction of the deficit, and the influence of RMB exchange rate is the second. On the product level, in the overall agricultural trade, the competitiveness of Chinese agricultural products is low, and the unreasonable structure of trade is the main reason leading to the agricultural trade deficit between China and ASEAN. The main reason for the existence of trade deficit of agricultural products of category 2 and category 4 in classified agricultural products is the growth effect brought about by the increasing supply of agricultural products in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Finally, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.
【学位授予单位】:广东外语外贸大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2017
【分类号】:F323.7;F752
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