中国大豆生产困境与出路研究

发布时间：2018-04-25 10:16

  本文选题：大豆产业 + 生产困境　； 参考：《吉林农业大学》2017年博士论文

【摘要】：农业供给侧结构性改革战略提出之前,中国大豆产业已基本丧失其国际竞争力,在参与国际大豆竞争中处于弱势地位。回顾大豆产业的发展过程不难发现,我国已经从有着几千年历史的大豆原产国变为88%的大豆依靠进口的大豆进口国。2016年我国国产大豆约1100万吨,为了满足国内9700万吨的消费量,需要从国外进口8600万吨的大豆来满足国内需求。近年来,我国大豆种植面积、单位产量、技术进步均没有明显提升,但国内大豆的需求量却随着人们生活水平的提高及畜牧业规模的扩大而显著增强,借中国入世后取消大豆贸易配额之机,国外转基因大豆凭借其低廉的价格迅速挤占了中国大豆市场,使得国内大量大豆加工企业纷纷倒闭或被外资收购,中国大豆生产与供给陷入困境。本文在对我国大豆产业的发展现状、市场需求以及供需平衡分析的基础上,通过对全球大豆产业生产、贸易、市场格局发展中先进经验的借鉴,运用计量经济学方法对我国大豆产业的生产效率、国际竞争力格局进行了深入分析。通过对我国大豆产业生产变化的特点、效应的挖掘,对影响我国大豆产量下降、农民种植积极性不高的原因进行剖析,为探索我国大豆提高供给的出路提出了合理的政策建议。同时指出我们要借农业供给侧结构性改革之机,调整农业种植结构、抢抓大豆生产、落实“米改豆”策略、降低大豆生产成本、提高大豆种植效益、提高大豆科技种植,摆脱大豆生产困境,使我国的大豆产业走上健康可持续发展之路。本论文共分为八章,主要研究内容如下:第一章为绪论。首先阐述了研究背景与意义,梳理了国内外相关文献,明确了大豆生产发展的相关概念,介绍了本文的研究内容与研究方法,最后对本文研究的理论基础进行阐述,为下文研究打下了基础。第二章和第三章对中国大豆生产现状、供需平衡及全球大豆产业市场格局的演进进行了分析。首先从生产、加工、贸易、需求等层面对我国大豆产业的发展及供需结构进行了阐述与分析;其次通过对全球大豆产业生产、贸易格局的演变过程的梳理,从生产消费、产业政策和贸易政策等角度对全球大豆市场格局的演进进行分析,提出借鉴国外先进经验、提高我国大豆产量、摆脱我国大豆生产困境、参与大豆国际竞争的建议。第四章至第六章是本文的核心内容。第四章对中国大豆生产困境展开了深入分析。从要素投入、生产效率和国际竞争力三个维度展开了对大豆生产困境的分析。首先,指出影响我国大豆供给的土地资源、资本资金、从业人员和科学技术等生产要素投入严重不足;其次,选择大豆产业投入产出、全要素生产指数和规模变化等指标数据,利用DEA中的VRS模型对大豆生产效率进行评价和评估,使用Tobit多元线性回归模型和样本选择模型对我国大豆产业的诸多影响因素进行回归分析,揭示导致我国大豆生产效率较低的深层次原因;最后,通过构建大豆国际竞争力指标,对比了中国大豆参与国际市场的竞争力状况。第五章对中国大豆生产效应进行了分析。本章从资源效应、生态效应、安全效应及结构效应等角度对我国大豆供给困境造成的影响进行了深入分析。在国际市场农产品供给充足、我国外汇储备实力雄厚、人民币成为世界第五大货币等有利因素下,指出我国实施大豆资源进口的经济效益和社会效益;化肥、农药的进口替代可以产生一定的生态效应;通过构建大豆产业安全评价指标及对大豆对外依存度的分析指出了大豆生产困境的安全效应;供给侧结构性改革政策的及时提出为我国农业种植结构调整、走出大豆生产困境带来了新的机遇。第六章对中国大豆生产困境的成因进行了深入分析。从技术因素、市场因素和政策因素指出了大豆生产困境的成因。大豆生产成本高源于机械化水平较低及转基因技术落后且被禁止使用;豆农种植积极性差源于大豆的比较收益弱于其他竞争力作物;进口大豆抢占国内市场源于我国大豆产业政策和贸易政策的支持力度弱化。第七章提出了中国大豆走出生产困境的出路。从大豆生产自给率定位、大豆种植区域布局规划、建立中国非转基因大豆种植保护区、放开转基因大豆种植、强化主产区利益补偿机制等方面对我国大豆生产发展进行分析并提出了政策建议。第八章对本研究的结论进行了总结,同时提出对未来研究的展望。
[Abstract]:Before the proposal of the agricultural supply side structural reform strategy, the Chinese soybean industry has lost its international competitiveness and is in a weak position in the international soybean competition. It is not difficult to find out that the soybean industry is not difficult to find in China, which has changed from the soybean origin to 88% of the soybean importing country which has a history of thousands of years. In 2016, China made about 11 million tons of domestic soybean. In order to meet the domestic consumption of 97 million tons, it is necessary to import 86 million tons of soybean from foreign countries to meet domestic demand. In recent years, China's soybean planting area, unit output and technological progress have not improved obviously, but the demand of domestic soybean is improved with the improvement of people's living standard and animal husbandry. The expansion of scale has greatly increased, and the foreign GM soybeans have quickly occupied the Chinese soybean market with its low price, making the large number of soybean processing enterprises closed down or being bought by foreign capital in China. The soybean production and supply in China is in trouble. On the basis of the development status, market demand and the analysis of supply and demand balance, through the reference of advanced experience in the production, trade and market pattern development of the global soybean industry, the production efficiency and the international competitiveness pattern of soybean industry in China are deeply analyzed by means of econometrics methods. In order to explore the way to improve the supply of soybean in China, we put forward reasonable policy suggestions for the way to improve the supply of soybean in our country. At the same time, we point out that we should borrow the structure of the agricultural supply side structural reform, adjust the agricultural planting structure, grab the soybean production and implement the "rice to the bean". In order to reduce the cost of soybean production, improve the benefit of soybean planting, improve the planting of soybean, get rid of the difficult situation of soybean production, make the soybean industry of our country on the road of healthy and sustainable development. This paper is divided into eight chapters. The main research contents are as follows: the first chapter is the introduction. First, the background and significance of the research are expounded, and the relevant domestic and foreign related issues have been combed. In the literature, the related concepts of soybean production and development are clarified, the contents and research methods of this paper are introduced. Finally, the theoretical basis of this paper is expounded, which lays the foundation for the following research. The second chapter and the third chapter analyses the status of soybean production in China, the balance of supply and demand and the evolution of the market pattern of the whole ball soybean industry. First, the development and supply and demand structure of soybean industry in China are expounded and analyzed from production, processing, trade, demand and other layers. Secondly, the evolution of the global soybean market pattern is analyzed from the angle of production consumption, industrial policy and trade policy through the analysis of the evolution process of the global soybean industry production and trade pattern, and the development of the global soybean market pattern is analyzed from the angle of production consumption, industrial policy and trade policy. The fourth chapter to the sixth chapter is the core content of this article. The fourth chapter analyzes the difficulties of soybean production in China. The soybean production is carried out from the three dimensions of factor input, production efficiency and international competitiveness. Analysis of the predicament. First, it points out that the land resources, capital funds, employees and science and technology are seriously ininvested in the land resources which affect the supply of soybean in China. Secondly, the index data of soybean industry input-output, total factor production index and scale change are selected, and the efficiency of soybean production is evaluated and evaluated by using the VRS model in DEA. The Tobit multiple linear regression model and the sample selection model were used to analyze the factors affecting the soybean industry in China, and the deep reasons that led to the low efficiency of soybean production in China were revealed. Finally, the competition status of Chinese soybean in the international market was compared by building up the international competitiveness index of soybean. The fifth chapter was in the middle of the Chinese soybean industry. The effect of national soybean production is analyzed. This chapter analyzes the influence of China's soybean supply dilemma from the angle of resource effect, ecological effect, safety effect and structure effect. In the international market, the supply of agricultural products is sufficient, our foreign exchange reserves are strong, and the people's currency becomes the fifth largest currency in the world. The economic and social benefits of importing soybean resources in China, the import substitution of chemical fertilizer and pesticide can produce a certain ecological effect, and the safety effect of soybean production predicament is pointed out through the construction of the safety evaluation index of soybean industry and the analysis of the dependence on the foreign soybean, and the timely proposal of the supply side structural reform policy is for me. The adjustment of agricultural planting structure in China has brought new opportunities out of the plight of soybean production. The sixth chapter makes an in-depth analysis of the causes of the plight of soybean production in China. From the technical, market and policy factors, the causes of the soybean production dilemma are pointed out. The high cost of soybean production comes from the lower level of mechanization and the lag of the transgenic technology. In the seventh chapter, the seventh chapter puts forward the way out for Chinese soybean to go out of the difficult situation of production. In the eighth chapter, the conclusion of the study is summarized and the prospect of the future research is put forward.

【学位授予单位】：吉林农业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.7
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本文编号：1800899