我国油菜籽价格波动风险及预警机制研究

发布时间：2018-04-26 14:02

  本文选题：油菜籽 + 油菜籽价格　； 参考：《价格理论与实践》2016年09期

【摘要】：2015年6月,国家取消了执行7年之久的油菜籽临储收购政策,油菜籽价格开始随行就市,完全由市场决定。然而,2015年取消临储政策以后,国内油菜籽价格出现大幅下跌,农民种植收益下降,种植意愿不高,油菜产业的健康发展面临一定的风险。因此,本文在分析我国油菜籽市场短期风险的基础上,探讨建立油菜价格预警机制,通过分析油菜籽历史价格数据设置油菜籽价格波动警度与警限,并建立警源分析模型;最后,对建立油菜籽价格预警机制给出相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:In June 2015, the country scrapped its seven-year rapeseed purchase policy and the price of rapeseed began to follow the market, which was entirely determined by the market. However, after the temporary storage policy was abolished in 2015, the domestic rapeseed price dropped sharply, the farmers' planting income decreased, the planting intention was not high, and the healthy development of rape industry was faced with certain risks. Therefore, on the basis of analyzing the short-term risk of rapeseed market in China, this paper discusses the establishment of rapeseed price early warning mechanism, sets up the warning degree and warning limit of rapeseed price fluctuation by analyzing the historical price data of rapeseed, and establishes the alarm source analysis model. Finally, the establishment of rapeseed price early-warning mechanism to give the relevant policy recommendations.
【作者单位】： 华中农业大学经济管理学院;武汉城市职业技术学院;
【基金】：国家“现代农业产业技术体系建设”专项(编号:CARS-0013) 国家自然科学基金(编号:71273103,71473100) 国家“万人计划”青年拔尖人才支持计划
【分类号】：F323.7
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本文编号：1806321