我国鸡蛋产业链市场价格传递机制探析

发布时间：2018-05-09 00:23

本文选题：市场价格 + 鸡蛋产业链　；参考：《黑龙江畜牧兽医》2017年10期

【摘要】：2012年以来,我国鸡蛋市场价格的过度波动引起社会的关注。为解析鸡蛋产业链的价格传导机制,笔者拟采用2011年1月份—2015年12月份的鸡蛋零售价及批发价、商品蛋用雏鸡价、蛋鸡配合饲料价等官方统计数据,运用协整检验、向量误差修正(VEC)模型和脉冲响应函数、方差分解等方法进行分析。结果表明:鸡蛋零售价和批发价间的关系最为密切;产业链各环节之间存在稳定的长期关系;鸡蛋零售价对其他价格的传导存在时滞;上游鸡蛋零售价的波动引致中下游鸡蛋批发价、配合饲料价、雏鸡价的波动;配合饲料价、雏鸡价对鸡蛋零售价、批发价的传导顺畅;鸡蛋零售价对批发价、雏鸡价变动的贡献最大;雏鸡价对配合饲料价、鸡蛋零售价波动的贡献也最大。
[Abstract]:Since 2012, our country egg market price excessive fluctuation causes the social concern. In order to analyze the price transmission mechanism of egg industry chain, the author intends to use the official statistical data, such as the retail price and wholesale price of eggs from January 2011 to December 2015, the price of egg chicks for commodity use, the price of mixed feed for laying hens, and so on, using cointegration tests. Vector error correction (VEC) model, impulse response function, variance decomposition and so on are analyzed. The results show that the relationship between the retail price and wholesale price of eggs is the most close, there is a stable long-term relationship between the various links of the industrial chain, and there is a delay in the transmission of the retail price of eggs to other prices. The fluctuation of the upstream egg retail price leads to the fluctuation of the wholesale price of eggs in the middle and lower reaches, the mixed feed price and the chicken price; the mixed feed price, the chicken price to the egg retail price and the transmission of the wholesale price; the egg retail price to the wholesale price; The contribution of the price change of chicks was the greatest, and the price of chicks had the greatest contribution to the fluctuation of the mixed feed price and the retail price of eggs.
【作者单位】：新疆农业职业技术学院;
【基金】：国家现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金(CARS-42-G24)
【分类号】：F323.7

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