东北玉米播种面积变化与相关成本效益比较研究:基于替代种植视角

发布时间：2018-05-10 17:09

本文选题：玉米 + 生产替代作物　；参考：《农业现代化研究》2016年03期

【摘要】：本文从东北地区玉米与其生产替代作物播种面积变化入手,比较分析了1978-2014年东北三省相关作物成本收益数据,进一步采用联立方程模型研究相关成本收益变动和劳动力用工约束对玉米相对播种面积的影响。结果表明,玉米单位产量上的低成本造就了其较强的生产竞争力;玉米相对播种面积具有很强的延续性,且受价格和资本投入因素影响显著,而各作物间的用工差距对玉米相对播种面积影响并不显著;玉米单产的连续提高及单产差距的拉大,对玉米相对播种面积影响在不同作物间的表现不同。为确保国内玉米稳定生产、科学调整农业结构,我国应在保障玉米最低收购价和稳定农资产品价格的基础上稳步推进玉米价格市场化改革,依托玉米育种技术提高玉米单产水平,拓展农村社会化服务内容,重塑玉米竞争优势。
[Abstract]:Based on the variation of planting area of maize and its substitute crops in Northeast China, the data of relative crop cost and income in three provinces of Northeast China from 1978 to 2014 were compared and analyzed in this paper. The influence of relative cost and income and labor constraints on the relative sowing area of maize was studied by using simultaneous equation model. The results show that the low cost per unit yield of maize makes it more competitive in production, and the relative planting area of maize has a strong continuity, which is significantly affected by the factors of price and capital input. However, the employment gap between different crops had no significant effect on the relative sowing area of maize, and the continuous increase of maize yield and the widening of the gap of yield per unit yield had different effects on the relative sowing area of maize among different crops. In order to ensure the stable production of domestic corn and adjust the agricultural structure scientifically, China should steadily promote the reform of corn price marketization on the basis of guaranteeing the minimum purchase price of corn and stabilizing the price of agricultural products. Relying on maize breeding technology to improve maize yield level, expand the content of socialized services in rural areas, and reshape the competitive advantage of maize.
【作者单位】：南京农业大学经济管理学院;南京农业大学中国粮食安全研究中心;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD160) 农业部软科学项目(20140102) 江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)~~
【分类号】：F323.7

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