北京市蔬菜价格变动及影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-05-15 12:24

本文选题：蔬菜价格 + 时间序列分析　；参考：《中国蔬菜》2017年11期

【摘要】：蔬菜是与人们生活密切相关的农产品,近些年来蔬菜价格的剧烈波动引起了人们的密切关注。本文分析了北京市蔬菜历年价格的变动情况,比较了蔬菜与粮食价格、蔬菜不同品种之间以及地区蔬菜价格的差异,在对蔬菜价格变动进行分解的基础上,进一步对影响北京市蔬菜价格变动的因素进行实证分析。结果表明:(1)北京市蔬菜价格具有明显的季节波动特征,整体表现为冬季价格高、夏季价格低;(2)剔除季节变动因素后蔬菜价格波动平缓,长期呈现上涨态势;(3)蔬菜价格周期波动显著,可划分为长度分别是4 a和6 a的2个周期;(4)北京市工业增加值增速、鲜菜价格指数、人均可支配收入以及1~4月时期因素对蔬菜价格变动产生显著的正向影响,6~11月时期因素对蔬菜价格产生负向影响。
[Abstract]:Vegetable is an agricultural product closely related to people's life. In recent years, the violent fluctuation of vegetable price has aroused people's close attention. This paper analyzes the change of vegetable price in Beijing over the years, compares the price between vegetable and grain, the difference of vegetable price between different varieties and regions, and analyzes the change of vegetable price on the basis of decomposition. Further more, the factors influencing the change of vegetable price in Beijing are analyzed empirically. The results show that the vegetable price in Beijing has obvious seasonal fluctuation characteristics, the overall performance is that the winter price is high, and the summer price is low. The vegetable price cycle fluctuates significantly, which can be divided into two cycles with length of 4 years and 6 years respectively) the growth rate of industrial added value of Beijing, the price index of fresh vegetables, and so on. The per capita disposable income and factors from January to April had a significant positive effect on vegetable price changes. In June to November, factors had a negative effect on vegetable prices.
【作者单位】：中国农业大学经济管理学院;北京市农业局;
【基金】：现代农业产业技术体系北京市果类蔬菜产业创新团队项目(BAIC01-2016) 北京市社科基金重点项目(15JGA020) 国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFD0300210)
【分类号】：F323.7

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