禽蛋价格触底反弹后市有望继续走高——2016年1～7月我国禽蛋生产形势及后期走势分析

发布时间：2018-05-27 06:03

本文选题：禽蛋价格 + 节日效应　；参考：《家禽科学》2016年09期

【摘要】：往年的7月中旬,早已步入"酷暑",而今年却一反常态,不仅梅雨延绵不绝,南方还迎来了百年难遇的强降水。因此今年的气温相比往年较低,蛋鸡受高温影响产蛋量下降的现象相对推迟,供应减少不明显。同时,南方的洪涝也带来了运输的不便,鸡蛋走货偏少,而梅雨天鸡蛋质量不佳,进一步导致需求下降,造成前期蛋价连续下跌。进入7月下旬,随着南方降雨量转小,降雨带转移,鸡蛋现货的价格也"雨后初晴",开始了反弹回升,虽较往年上涨情况推迟近两周,但已经启动了"上涨程序"。气温升高产蛋率的下降及中秋与国庆双节备货需求,将带动鸡蛋现货价格继续季节性上涨,期价有望震荡偏强运行。而南北方汛情或会催化价格上涨。
[Abstract]:In the middle of July, in the middle of July, it was already a "hot summer", but this year it was a normal, not only plum rain, but also the south. In the late July, the price of the egg was "clear", and the price of egg spot was "clear after the rain", and it began to rebound for nearly two weeks, although it was delayed for nearly two weeks, but it has already started " The decline in the rate of high and high-yield eggs and the demand for the Mid Autumn Festival and the national day double stock will continue to increase the seasonal price of eggs. The period price is expected to be stronger. The flood situation in the South and the north will increase.
【作者单位】：国家统计局盐城调查队;国家统计局滨海调查队;江苏邮政公司盐城分公司;
【分类号】：F323.7

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