探索我国生猪价格波动与生产能力的关系

发布时间：2018-05-29 04:27

本文选题：生猪价格 + 生猪生产能力　；参考：《价格理论与实践》2017年03期

【摘要】：本文从供给侧探讨影响生猪价格波动的原因,主要分析生猪生产能力与生猪价格波动的关系。选择能繁母猪的存栏量作为衡量生猪生产能力的指标,在对能繁母猪的存栏量与生猪价格进行协整检验的基础上,通过建立误差修正模型,运用脉冲响应函数和方差预测分解法,分析了二者之间的动态关系。结果表明,生猪价格和能繁母猪存栏量相互影响,且二者之间存在长期均衡关系。为此,本文建议对生猪产业支持应以不直接干涉生猪价格为前提,以支持养殖环境改善,生猪保险等方式稳定生猪生产能力;并提出建立生猪价格和母猪存栏量的均衡指数,以完善生猪价格预警指标体系,引导生猪产业的健康发展。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the reasons that affect the price fluctuation of live pigs are discussed from the supply side, and the relationship between the production capacity of live pigs and the fluctuation of prices of live pigs is analyzed. Based on the cointegration test of the capacity of sow stock and the price of live pig, the error correction model was established by selecting the stock capacity of fertile sows as the index to measure the production capacity of live pigs, and on the basis of the cointegration test between the stock capacity of fertile sows and the price of live pigs, an error correction model was established. The dynamic relationship between impulse response function and variance prediction decomposition is analyzed. The results showed that the price of live pigs and the stock capacity of sows could affect each other, and there was a long-term equilibrium relationship between them. Therefore, this paper suggests that the support for pig industry should be based on the premise of not directly interfering in the price of live pigs, to support the improvement of breeding environment, to stabilize the production capacity of live pigs by means of pig insurance, and to establish a balanced index between the price of live pigs and the stock of sows. In order to improve the index system of pig price warning, guide the healthy development of pig industry.
【作者单位】：南通大学商学院;南通市物价局;
【分类号】：F323.7

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