猪粮比价预警效果与重构问题的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-30 15:55

本文选题：生猪价格波动特征 + 猪粮比价的重构　；参考：《长江大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：猪粮比价作为生猪价格监测预警机制的重要参考指标,其构成及盈亏临界点的计算必须具有科学性和动态性特征,要能够适应变化了的市场和经济环境。目前,我国生猪养殖业已呈现规模化发展趋势,生猪养殖成本结构也发生了很大变化,传统猪粮比价及其盈亏临界点发挥作用的前提已经发生重大变化,因而仍以生猪价格与玉米价格的比值计算猪粮比价,以及依此计算的盈亏临界点衡量盈亏,并作为调控的标准,既不符合产业发展规律,也不利于生猪养殖业的健康发展,更不利于政府对生猪市场和粮食市场的调控及相关的宏观决策。国内许多学者已经认识到传统猪粮比价存在的问题,但对于如何重构猪粮比价及其临界点的问题,目前尚缺乏深入的论证和研究。综合运用产业经济学科基本理论和畜牧养殖的科学和技术知识,以实地调查数据作为支撑,深入论证和研究猪粮比价及其盈亏点重构的必要性、途径及其可行性,将有利于政府提高对生猪(猪肉)市场以及粮食市场调控的有效性和相关宏观决策的科学性,也有利于生猪养殖户对养猪行业市场走势的科学预测,从而促进生猪养殖业的发展,对于避免猪肉价格的大起大落,保持生猪市场乃至整个物价的相对稳定,走出“肉贵伤民,猪贱伤农”的怪圈,具有深远的理论与现实意义。因此研究和分析猪粮比价预警效果与重构问题对于稳定我国生猪价格和促进生猪产业健康发展影响深远,具有十分重要的理论意义和现实意义。笔者通过运用生猪价格和猪粮比价时间序列数据,探究我国生猪价格波动的特征以及成因,并实证分析我国猪粮比价重构的的必要性并重点分析猪料比和猪本比作为重构我国猪粮比价的可行性,并根据分析结果提出重构我国猪粮比价以及平抑生猪价格波动周期的有效路径。(1)绪论部分。本部分主要阐述本研究的研究背景、研究目的及意义、国内外研究现状、研究内容与难点、研究方法与技术路线、主要创新点和不足等内容。(2)相关理论基础与概念。本部分首先对“均衡价格理论”,“农产品供求均衡的蛛网理论”相关理论进行重点阐述;其次对“产业政策”“纵向产业关联”“价格传导机制”等概念进行简要阐述和界定为进一步分析研究提供充足的理论依据。(3)我国生猪价格波动新特征的分析。本部分采用HP和BP滤波法对比分析2000-2015年我国生猪价格的波动新特征探究我国生猪价格波动出现的新的周期特征以及波动频率特征为以后分析我国生猪价格的波动特征及成因,探寻平抑生猪价格波动周期的有效途径提供实证支撑。本部分以对比分析和定性分析的方法分别分析生猪价格的波动在生猪纵向产业关联主体之间的传导机制入手,分析生猪产业纵向关联主体之间如何以生猪价格为主要媒介进行产业链的纵向整合以及各个主体之间如何进行利益的分配,通过对我国生猪价格波动在生猪纵向产业链的价格传导机制的定性分析,明晰我国生猪价格对猪肉价格以及我国猪粮比价的影响传导机制,为有针对性地制定我国生猪价格调控措施,减缓、消化因生猪价格上的影响对猪粮比价上涨的压力提供理论依据。(4)我国猪粮比价预警机制的效果的实证分析。本部分从实证分析我国生猪价格与我国生猪价格预警的主要指标—猪粮比价的长期协整关系入手探究我国生猪价格预警机制对于生猪价格预警的实际效果为调整我过生猪价格预警机制提供实证依据和支撑。(5)我国猪粮比价重构的研究。本部分通过以生猪价格波动为主要指标结合以上对生猪价格波动新特征的实证研究对比分析了我国2008年前后我国生猪调控政策的下生猪价格波动的周期,频率以及长期趋势等特征来考察我国生猪价格调控政策的实际效果,为判定我国猪粮比价重构的理论分析,探寻完善我国生猪价格调控政策的有效途径提供实证依据。(6)相关结论与建议。本部分在以上实证分析了我国生猪价格波动新特征和我国生猪价格预警机制的效果以及我国生猪价格调控政策综合效果的基础之上结合对我国生猪价格波动传导机制的分析提出了完善我国猪粮比价重构的有效途径的相关对策和建议。
[Abstract]:As an important reference index for the monitoring and early warning mechanism of pig price monitoring, the proportion of pig grain price should be of scientific and dynamic characteristics, and it should be able to adapt to the changing market and economic environment. At present, the pig breeding industry in China has shown a large-scale development trend, and the cost structure of pig breeding has changed greatly. The premise of the traditional pig grain price ratio and its profit and loss critical point has changed greatly. Therefore, the ratio of pig price to corn price is calculated and the profit and loss of the calculated profit and loss point are measured, and as the standard of control, it does not conform to the law of production development and is not good for the health of the pig breeding industry. Development is not conducive to the government's regulation of the pig market and the grain market. Many domestic scholars have realized the existing problems of the traditional pig ration price, but there is still a lack of in-depth demonstration and Research on how to reconstruct the price ratio and the critical point of the pig grain. The scientific and technical knowledge of animal husbandry, supported by field survey data, thoroughly demonstrated and studied the necessity, the way and the feasibility of the restructure of the pig grain price and its profit and loss points, which will be beneficial to the government to improve the effectiveness of the pig (pork) market and the grain market regulation and the scientific nature of the related macro decisions, as well as to the pig breeding. The scientific prediction of the market trend of the pig breeding industry, thus promoting the development of the pig breeding industry, is of profound theoretical and practical significance to avoid the big rise and fall of the pork price and keep the relative stability of the pig market and even the whole price, so it is of profound theoretical and practical significance to go out of the "meat expensive injured people, the pig base injured farmers". The problem of police effect and reconstruction has a very important theoretical and practical significance to stabilize the price of pig in China and promote the healthy development of the pig industry. By using the time series data of pig price and pig grain price, the author explores the characteristics and causes of the fluctuation of the pig's price in China, and analyses the price ratio of pig grain in China. The necessity of reconstructing and analyzing the feasibility of the pig ration ratio and the pig ratio as the reconfiguration of the price ratio of the pig grain in China, and according to the results of the analysis, put forward the effective way to reconstruct the price ratio of the pig grain in China and to suppress the fluctuation cycle of the price of the pig. (1) the introduction part. This part mainly expounds the research background, the purpose and significance of the study, and the research at home and abroad. The present situation, research content and difficulties, research methods and technical routes, main innovation points and shortcomings. (2) the theoretical basis and concept of related theories. First, this part focuses on the theory of "equilibrium price theory" and "the cobweb theory of supply and demand balance of agricultural products"; secondly, "industrial policy" "vertical industrial association" "price" The concept of grid conduction mechanism is briefly expounded and defined to provide sufficient theoretical basis for further analysis. (3) the analysis of the new characteristics of the fluctuation of the pig price in China. This part uses the HP and BP filtering methods to compare and analyze the new characteristics of the fluctuation of the price of the pig in China for 2000-2015 years and explore the new cycle of the fluctuation of the price of the pig in China. The characteristics and the frequency characteristics of the volatility are the analysis of the characteristics and causes of the fluctuation of the pig price in China, and the effective way to find the effective way to suppress the fluctuation cycle of the pig's price is provided. This paper analyzes the vertical integration of the industrial chain between the main body of the pig industry and the main media between the pig and the pig industry, and how to allocate the interests between the various subjects. Through the qualitative analysis of the price transmission mechanism of the pig's price fluctuation in the vertical industrial chain of the pig, the price of pig is clarifying to the price of pork in China and the price of pork in China. The transmission mechanism of the price ratio of pig grain in China provides a theoretical basis for formulating the control measures of the pig price in China, slowing down, and providing a theoretical basis for the increase of the price of pig grain by the influence of the price of the pig. (4) the empirical analysis of the effect of the early warning mechanism of the price ratio of the pig grain in China. The main index of price early-warning - the long-term co integration relationship between pig grain price and price, the actual effect of the early warning mechanism of pig price in China on the early-warning of pig price provides an empirical basis and support for adjusting the price warning mechanism of the pig's price. (5) the study on the restructure of the price ratio of pig grain in China. On the basis of the empirical research on the new characteristics of the price fluctuation of the pig, this paper compares and analyzes the cycle, frequency and long-term trend of the price fluctuation of the pig in China before and after 2008, to investigate the actual effect of the price regulation policy of the pig in our country, and to explore the theoretical analysis of the reconstruction of the price of the pig grain in our country and explore the perfection of the theory. The effective way of China's pig price regulation policy provides an empirical basis. (6) related conclusions and suggestions. This part analyses the new characteristics of Chinese pig price fluctuation and the effect of China's pig price early warning mechanism and the comprehensive effect of China's pig price regulation policy on the basis of the combination of the fluctuation transmission of Chinese pig price. The analysis of mechanism puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions to improve the effective way of pig grain ration reconstruction in China.
【学位授予单位】：长江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.7

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