肉鸡生产成本价格和零售价格传递机制分析——基于1994—2015年的月度数据

发布时间：2018-06-02 01:36

本文选题：雏鸡价格 + 饲料价格　；参考：《黑龙江畜牧兽医》2017年16期

【摘要】：饲料价格、雏鸡价格等肉鸡生产成本价格以及活鸡零售价格的价格传递影响着鸡肉稳定的供给和需求。笔者基于1994—2015年的月度价格数据,采用向量自回归模型(VAR)、误差修正模型(ECM)、格兰杰(Granger)因果关系、脉冲响应以及方差分解等一系列计量方法剖析肉鸡生产成本价格和零售价格的价格传导关系。结果表明:肉鸡生产成本价格对零售价格产生单向的影响,肉雏鸡价格和饲料价格关联性低,肉雏鸡价格对活鸡零售价格的正向影响较大,肉鸡配合饲料价格是活鸡零售价格的Granger原因,肉鸡生产成本价格和零售价格之间能较迅速传导,肉雏鸡价格对活鸡价格的彼此贡献最大,肉鸡配合饲料价格对活鸡价格的贡献也最大。因此,实时监测雏鸡价格、警惕饲料价格的传递影响可能是有效调控肉鸡成本价格和零售价格的有效途径。
[Abstract]:The price of feed, the price of chicken and the price transfer of chicken's retail price affect the supply and demand of chicken stable. Based on the monthly price data of 1994 to 2015, the author uses the vector autoregressive model (VAR), error correction model (ECM), Grainger (Granger) causality, impulse response and variance decomposition A series of measurement methods are used to analyze the price transmission relationship between the cost price of broiler production and the retail price. The result shows that the cost price of broiler production has a one-way influence on the retail price, the price of chicken chick and feed price is low, the price of chicken chick has a positive effect on the retail price of chicken, and the price of chicken cooperating feed is the live chicken. The Granger cause of the retail price, the price of broiler production and the retail price can be carried out rapidly. The price of chicken chick contributes the most to the price of live chicken, and the price of chicken cooperated with chicken is the most important. Therefore, the real time monitoring of the price of chicks and the effect of feeding price on the feed price may be effective in regulating broilers. The effective way of the price and the retail price.
【作者单位】：昌吉职业技术学院;
【基金】：科技部现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金(CARS-42-G24)
【分类号】：F224;F323.7

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