中国GDP核算误差的估算框架

发布时间：2018-07-02 20:36

本文选题：GDP + 统计数据质量　；参考：《厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2017年05期

【摘要】：关于中国GDP数据质量评估与核算误差估算的研究和实践,至今未能形成公认的方法体系和有形的成果序列。中国GDP核算误差的估算框架的构建,有助于推进该领域研究的体系化。该框架主要包含两层面内容:一是根据核算原理对GDP指标进行全方位分解,尽可能地将误差来源予以细化,并与现有的局部估算研究建立对应关系;二是遵循局部调整、边际改进的技术思路,对GDP(及其误差)各个组成部分的外部估算结果进行衔接和重组,通过序贯逼近,最终建立针对官方数据的较具可信度的替代性数据序列和数据集。该框架满足GDP数据质量评估研究在理论基础可靠性、技术可行性、问题可辨识性以及系统兼容性等方面的要求,可以为该领域研究成果的系统整合以及对于中国统计实践的指导价值的切实发挥提供稳健的方法平台。
[Abstract]:The research and practice on the quality evaluation of GDP data and the estimation of accounting errors in China have not yet formed a generally accepted method system and tangible result series. The construction of estimation framework of GDP accounting error in China is helpful to systematize the research in this field. The framework mainly includes two aspects: first, according to the accounting principle, the GDP index is decomposed in an all-round way, the source of error is refined as much as possible, and the corresponding relationship is established with the existing local estimation research; the other is to follow the local adjustment. The marginal improved technical thinking links and reorganizes the external estimation results of each component of GDP (and its errors) and finally establishes a reliable alternative data sequence and data set for official data by sequential approximation. The framework meets the requirements of theoretical basis reliability, technical feasibility, problem identifiability and system compatibility in the research of GDP data quality evaluation. It can provide a robust method platform for the systematic integration of the research results in this field and the practical exertion of the guiding value of the statistical practice in China.
【作者单位】：厦门大学台湾研究院;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目“中国GDP核算误差、数据修订及其影响机制研究”(12CTJ015)
【分类号】：F222.33

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