农产品金融化对玉米价格波动的影响——基于SVAR模型的实证研究
发布时间：2018-07-13 11:03
【摘要】：供求因素对玉米价格的影响已很清楚,但金融因素和经济因素的作用有待进一步探索。利用2009年1月~2015年10月的月度数据,借助SVAR模型,分析了国内外金融因素对我国玉米现货价格的影响。分析结果表明:在国内玉米供求变化不大的情况下,其价格金融化特征明显,价格波动周期变短、波动幅度增大;人民币实际汇率对其价格的冲击最大,消费者价格指数次之,其他金融因素的影响较小。
[Abstract]:The effect of supply and demand factors on corn price is clear, but the roles of financial and economic factors need to be further explored. Based on the monthly data from January 2009 to October 2015 and the SVAR model, this paper analyzes the influence of domestic and foreign financial factors on spot price of corn in China. The results show that when domestic corn supply and demand change little, the price financialization is obvious, the price fluctuation period becomes shorter and the fluctuation range increases, the real exchange rate of RMB has the biggest impact on its price, and the consumer price index is the second. Other financial factors have less impact.
【作者单位】： 四川农业大学经济学院;
【基金】：四川省科技支撑计划项目“四川省新农村建设科技集成研究与示范”(编号:2015NZ0105)
【分类号】：F323.7;F724.5
本文编号：2119137
[Abstract]:The effect of supply and demand factors on corn price is clear, but the roles of financial and economic factors need to be further explored. Based on the monthly data from January 2009 to October 2015 and the SVAR model, this paper analyzes the influence of domestic and foreign financial factors on spot price of corn in China. The results show that when domestic corn supply and demand change little, the price financialization is obvious, the price fluctuation period becomes shorter and the fluctuation range increases, the real exchange rate of RMB has the biggest impact on its price, and the consumer price index is the second. Other financial factors have less impact.
【作者单位】： 四川农业大学经济学院;
【基金】：四川省科技支撑计划项目“四川省新农村建设科技集成研究与示范”(编号:2015NZ0105)
【分类号】：F323.7;F724.5
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