河南省玉米价格波动及其影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-09-19 15:20

【摘要】：随着经济社会的发展和科技进步,玉米由于其自身优势而多功能性凸显,以玉米为原料的加工业迅速发展,市场对玉米的需求量不断增加。为促进农业生产,国家不断出台强农惠农政策,促进了玉米产业的快速发展,玉米市场价格也一路走高。近年来,玉米市场出现供大于求的状况,2015年国家首次下调玉米临储价,随之而来的是玉米市场价格持续走低。玉米作为河南省第二大粮食作物,玉米价格的波动直接影响着河南省玉米种植者的切身利益和玉米产业的发展。本文通过研究河南省玉米市场价格波动的具体特征,分析河南省玉米价格波动的成因与机理,并探索影响玉米价格波动的主要因素和影响程度。根据研究结论,提出相应的政策建议。本文主要内容和结论如下:第一章为本文选题依据、研究内容和研究方法。第二章为文献回顾和理论基础。第三章首先对玉米价格政策的改革历程进行简要回顾,然后运用时间趋势分解法界定河南省玉米价格波动周期,并分析其波动特征主要为:玉米价格整体波动较大,一路波动上扬;各波动周期均为古典型波动,恶性波动程度较大;波动周期较短且波动剧烈;扩张期略短于收缩期,波幅有缩小的趋势。第四章主要从供求关系和外部冲击方面选取玉米产量、玉米需求、玉米进出口量、国际市场玉米价格、成本、替代品价格、自然灾害、居民收入、宏观经济形势及政策通过图形对照和比较分析法分析了河南省玉米价格波动的成因和机理。第五章对河南省玉米价格波动的主要影响因素进行相关分析和Granger因果检验,并构建河南省玉米价格影响因素的多元回归模型。分析得出:玉米产量、玉米生产总成本、国际市场玉米价格和城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入均与玉米价格存在较强的相关性;其中玉米产量、进口量、总成本和城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入是玉米价格的Granger原因;玉米产量和进口量与玉米价格呈显著性反向变动关系,国际市场玉米价格对河南省玉米价格有显著的正向影响。第六章对全文进行总结,得出相应结论,并提出相应的政策建议:健全玉米价格市场形成机制;控制玉米种植成本;加强玉米市场信息服务,完善市场法制化管理。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy and society and the progress of science and technology, maize has become more and more functional because of its own advantages. The processing industry with corn as raw material has developed rapidly, and the market demand for maize has been increasing. In order to promote agricultural production, the government has continuously issued policies to strengthen agriculture and benefit agriculture, which has promoted the rapid development of corn industry, and the price of corn market has also gone up all the way. In recent years, the corn market has been in excess of demand, and in 2015, the country cut the price of corn reserve for the first time, followed by a continued decline in corn prices. As the second largest food crop in Henan Province, the fluctuation of corn price directly affects the vital interests of maize growers and the development of maize industry in Henan Province. By studying the characteristics of price fluctuation of maize market in Henan Province, this paper analyzes the causes and mechanism of price fluctuation of maize in Henan Province, and probes into the main factors and degree of affecting the price fluctuation of maize. According to the conclusions of the study, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward. The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows: the first chapter is the basis of this paper, research content and research methods. The second chapter is literature review and theoretical basis. The third chapter briefly reviews the reform course of maize price policy, then defines the fluctuation period of maize price in Henan province by using time trend decomposition method, and analyzes the main characteristics of the fluctuation: the whole price of maize fluctuates greatly. All the fluctuation periods are paleo-typical fluctuations, the degree of malignant volatility is larger; the fluctuation period is shorter and more volatile; the expansion period is a little shorter than the contraction period, and the amplitude tends to decrease. The fourth chapter mainly selects corn yield, corn demand, corn import and export, international market corn price, cost, substitute price, natural disaster, resident income from the aspects of supply and demand and external shocks. The causes and mechanism of maize price fluctuation in Henan Province were analyzed by means of graphic comparison and comparative analysis. In the fifth chapter, the correlation analysis and Granger causality test of the main influencing factors of maize price fluctuation in Henan Province are carried out, and the multivariate regression model of the influencing factors of maize price in Henan Province is constructed. The results show that corn yield, total cost of maize production, international market corn price and per capita disposable income of urban households are strongly correlated with corn price, among which corn yield, import amount, The total cost and the per capita disposable income of urban households are the Granger reasons of corn price, the corn yield and import amount have a significant reverse relationship with the corn price, and the international market corn price has a significant positive effect on the corn price in Henan Province. The sixth chapter summarizes the full text, draws the corresponding conclusions, and puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations: perfect the corn price market formation mechanism; control the maize planting cost; strengthen the corn market information service, perfect the market legalization management.
【学位授予单位】：河南农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F323.7

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