基于BP神经网络的江西省生猪价格波动预警分析
发布时间：2018-10-10 18:56
【摘要】：借助多元统计方法识别2000年1月~2016年12月江西省生猪价格波动的成因,选择生猪价格波动率作为警情指标,借助时差相关法,确定风险预警指标,建立BP人工神经网络模型,预警生猪价格波动的风险。结果表明,玉米价格、仔猪价格、猪肉价格、活鸡价格、豆粕价格、生产者预期和疫情为主要警情指标,其中先行性指标是仔猪价格和生产者预期,同步指标是玉米价格、猪肉价格和活鸡价格,豆粕价格和疫情是滞后指标;除个别样本点外,BP神经网络模型输出的生猪价格预警值和实际价格数据比较接近,生猪价格波动风险预警模型具有良好的预警效果。根据不同级别的风险程度提出相应对策建议,以便政府能够根据不同警情采取具有针对性的措施,使生猪生产、市场平稳健康发展。
[Abstract]:The causes of pig price fluctuation in Jiangxi Province from January 2000 to December 2016 were identified by means of multivariate statistical method. The hog price fluctuation rate was selected as the warning index and the risk early warning index was determined by means of time difference correlation method. The BP artificial neural network model was established. Risk of hog price fluctuations. The results showed that corn price, piglet price, pork price, live chicken price, soybean meal price, producer expectation and epidemic situation were the main warning indicators. Pork price and live chicken price, soybean meal price and epidemic situation are lagging indicators, except for a few sample points, the warning value of live pig price output by BP neural network model is close to the actual price data. The risk early warning model of hog price fluctuation has good early warning effect. According to different levels of risk, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward, so that the government can take targeted measures according to different police situation, so as to make pig production and market develop smoothly and healthily.
【作者单位】： 江西农业大学江西现代农业发展协同创新中心;江西农业大学理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金“生猪价格波动的形成机理及风险预警仿真”(编号:71561014) 江西省社会科学项目“结构突变视角下江西农产品价格市场形成机制研究”(编号:16YJ34) 江西高校人文社会科学基金“新常态下生猪价格的时空特征及波动机理研究”(编号:GL162014) 江西省教育厅项目“基于支持向量机和马尔科夫模型的江西省生猪价格预警研究”(编号:GJJ160410)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F323.7;TP183
本文编号：2262880
[Abstract]:The causes of pig price fluctuation in Jiangxi Province from January 2000 to December 2016 were identified by means of multivariate statistical method. The hog price fluctuation rate was selected as the warning index and the risk early warning index was determined by means of time difference correlation method. The BP artificial neural network model was established. Risk of hog price fluctuations. The results showed that corn price, piglet price, pork price, live chicken price, soybean meal price, producer expectation and epidemic situation were the main warning indicators. Pork price and live chicken price, soybean meal price and epidemic situation are lagging indicators, except for a few sample points, the warning value of live pig price output by BP neural network model is close to the actual price data. The risk early warning model of hog price fluctuation has good early warning effect. According to different levels of risk, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward, so that the government can take targeted measures according to different police situation, so as to make pig production and market develop smoothly and healthily.
【作者单位】： 江西农业大学江西现代农业发展协同创新中心;江西农业大学理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金“生猪价格波动的形成机理及风险预警仿真”(编号:71561014) 江西省社会科学项目“结构突变视角下江西农产品价格市场形成机制研究”(编号:16YJ34) 江西高校人文社会科学基金“新常态下生猪价格的时空特征及波动机理研究”(编号:GL162014) 江西省教育厅项目“基于支持向量机和马尔科夫模型的江西省生猪价格预警研究”(编号:GJJ160410)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F323.7;TP183
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