呼和浩特地区粮食产量波动问题研究

发布时间：2018-10-26 12:37

【摘要】：粮食安全自古以来就与民生密切相关。时下,粮食自给率低、粮食品种结构矛盾突出、产需缺口不断加大,是困扰着呼和浩特地区粮食安全的三大问题。基于供给侧角度,粮食产量安全是凌驾于其他一切粮食问题的基点。本文基于长期波动和短期波动的研究视角下,对呼和浩特粮食的趋势产量和波动产量进行考察,并对影响粮食产量波动的关键因素进行检证。首先,本文从三个方面对呼和浩特粮食产量波动特征进行测算分析。分别包括:基于波动指数指标,对粮食总产量波动的周期、振幅、波动类型等特征进行考察;基于波动指数指标的方差分解,对各周期内不同品种粮食产量波动对总产量波动的贡献率进行分析;基于EMD算法,对呼和浩特各区域粮食产量波动进行分解研究。其次,在对上述研究现状的把握上,突出对该地区粮食总产量波动的影响因素进行实证研究。根据粮食产量波动的形成机理,采用层次分析法,对自然气候(季节变动)和生产要素对粮食产量的影响进行指标分层分析,并获得历年各指标对粮食产量波动的影响大小及趋势。最后得出结论:(1)自然气候是造成该地区粮食产量波动的关键因素,自然气候对产量的影响周期和粮食总产量波动周期完全一致,均为3年;(2)呼和浩特市辖区与郊区在小范围内形成了城乡二元经济结构,资本替代农业劳动力趋势渐显;(3)多元化的种植结构有利于减少粮食产量波动,抵御波动风险。针对上述研究结论本文提出如下建议,旨在稳定该地区粮食产量,减少不利因素对粮食生产的影响。具体如下:(1)完善农业基础设施,尤其是农田水利建设;(2)加大农业资本投入;.(3)优化农作物种植结构;(4)完善粮情检测预警机制;(5)加快出台《粮食法》。
[Abstract]:Food security has been closely related to people's livelihood since ancient times. Nowadays, the low self-sufficiency rate of grain, the prominent contradiction of grain variety structure and the increasing gap of production and demand are the three major problems puzzling the food security in Hohhot region. Based on the supply-side angle, grain yield safety is the basis point above all other food problems. In this paper, the trend yield and fluctuating yield of grain in Hohhot are investigated from the perspective of long-term and short-term fluctuation, and the key factors affecting the fluctuation of grain yield are verified. First of all, this paper estimates and analyzes the fluctuation characteristics of Huhhot grain production from three aspects. The main contents are as follows: based on the index of fluctuation index, the period, amplitude and type of fluctuation of total grain yield are investigated. Based on variance decomposition of fluctuation index, the contribution rate of grain yield fluctuation of different varieties to total yield fluctuation in each cycle is analyzed. Based on EMD algorithm, grain yield fluctuation in Hohhot region is decomposed. Secondly, the paper makes empirical research on the influencing factors of the fluctuation of total grain yield in this area. According to the forming mechanism of grain yield fluctuation, the influence of natural climate (seasonal variation) and production factors on grain yield was analyzed by AHP. The influence and trend of each index on grain yield fluctuation were obtained. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Natural climate is the key factor of grain yield fluctuation in this area, and the cycle of natural climate on grain yield is identical to that of total grain yield for 3 years; (2) the urban and rural dual economic structure was formed in the urban and rural areas of Hohhot city district and suburb, and the trend of replacing agricultural labor with capital gradually appeared; (3) the diversified planting structure was beneficial to reduce the fluctuation of grain yield and resist the fluctuating risk. In view of the above conclusions, the following suggestions are put forward in this paper in order to stabilize the grain production in this area and reduce the influence of adverse factors on grain production. The main contents are as follows: (1) improving agricultural infrastructure, especially irrigation and water conservancy construction; (2) increasing agricultural capital input into;. (3) optimizing crop planting structure; (4) perfecting grain condition detection and warning mechanism; (5) speeding up the promulgation of the grain law.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.7

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