玉米临时收储改革的可能选项与影响分析
发布时间：2019-08-19 11:27
【摘要】：2016年秋后我国将推行玉米生产者补贴政策,以替代从2008年以来实行的"临时收储政策",此次改革旨在降低玉米库存量、减少财政支出以及推动种植结构调整。在此背景下对中国玉米供需进行分析和预测,并评估此项改革的政策效果。结果表明,玉米生产者补贴对于维持农民种植意愿具有较显著的作用,价补分离的直接收入补贴会大幅减少玉米总供给。伴随着未来玉米深加工和饲用需求继续保持增长的趋势,玉米支持政策改革将导致供需缺口迅速扩大。因此,建议政府选择玉米生产者补贴政策,每年根据上一年的情况微调补贴额,既能确保一定数量的种植面积以及大幅减少财政支出,又可以在降低玉米库存的前提下,有效防止供需缺口迅速扩大的危害。
[Abstract]:After autumn 2016, China will pursue a corn producer subsidy policy to replace the "temporary storage policy" since 2008. The reform aims to reduce corn stocks, reduce fiscal spending and promote the adjustment of planting structure. Under this background, the supply and demand of corn in China are analyzed and forecasted, and the policy effect of this reform is evaluated. The results showed that corn producer subsidy played a significant role in maintaining farmers' willingness to grow, and the direct income subsidy with the separation of price and supplement would greatly reduce the total supply of corn. With the increasing trend of deep processing and feed demand of corn in the future, the reform of corn support policy will lead to the rapid widening of the gap between supply and demand. Therefore, it is suggested that the government should choose the subsidy policy of corn producers and adjust the subsidy amount according to the situation of the previous year, which can not only ensure a certain amount of planting area and greatly reduce the fiscal expenditure, but also effectively prevent the harm of rapid widening of supply and demand gap under the premise of reducing corn inventory.
【作者单位】： 南京农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(编号:71303115) 江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD) 南京农业大学中央高校科研业务费人文社科基金(编号:SKCX2015004、Y0201400069、A0201300498、Y0201400037) 教育部第48批留学回国人员科研启动基金 江苏省南京市留学人员科研择优资助基金 江苏农村发展与土地政策研究基地 江苏省农业现代化决策咨询基地项目
【分类号】：F323.7
，
本文编号：2528224
[Abstract]:After autumn 2016, China will pursue a corn producer subsidy policy to replace the "temporary storage policy" since 2008. The reform aims to reduce corn stocks, reduce fiscal spending and promote the adjustment of planting structure. Under this background, the supply and demand of corn in China are analyzed and forecasted, and the policy effect of this reform is evaluated. The results showed that corn producer subsidy played a significant role in maintaining farmers' willingness to grow, and the direct income subsidy with the separation of price and supplement would greatly reduce the total supply of corn. With the increasing trend of deep processing and feed demand of corn in the future, the reform of corn support policy will lead to the rapid widening of the gap between supply and demand. Therefore, it is suggested that the government should choose the subsidy policy of corn producers and adjust the subsidy amount according to the situation of the previous year, which can not only ensure a certain amount of planting area and greatly reduce the fiscal expenditure, but also effectively prevent the harm of rapid widening of supply and demand gap under the premise of reducing corn inventory.
【作者单位】： 南京农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(编号:71303115) 江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD) 南京农业大学中央高校科研业务费人文社科基金(编号:SKCX2015004、Y0201400069、A0201300498、Y0201400037) 教育部第48批留学回国人员科研启动基金 江苏省南京市留学人员科研择优资助基金 江苏农村发展与土地政策研究基地 江苏省农业现代化决策咨询基地项目
【分类号】：F323.7
，
本文编号：2528224
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