印度-德国双边贸易关系的代写assignment参考

印度-德国双边贸易关系的代写assignment参考
Indo German Bilateral Trade Relations 

印度-德国双边贸易被认为是一个值得尊敬的两大经济体贸易量的一个遥远的呼声。尽管两国已承诺增加双边贸易，印度分配给德国的重要性尚未得到回应。印度和德国创造任何阵列的机会一个又一个，这仍然是未知的。本文探讨了贸易关系和贸易的全球和双边观点的两个经济体的程度。本文的目的并不是衡量双边贸易的程度在这两个国家之间在2007-2012年期间也得出一些结论，关于这些经济体之间的贸易潜力相关。本文的其余部分重点在这些国家之间的双边贸易的机会和挑战。本文阐明了阻碍合作的挑战。

The Indo-German bilateral trade is deemed to be a far cry of a respectable volume of trade for two large economies. Despite the fact that both economies have pledged to increase bilateral trade, the importance that India assigns to Germany is yet to be reciprocated. Both India and Germany create any array of opportunities for one another, which remain uncharted. This paper examines the extent of trade relations and trade of both economies from the global and bilateral perspectives. The purpose of this paper is not to measure the extent of bilateral trade in between these two countries over the period of 2007-2012 but also draw some conclusions about the potentialities between these economies related to trade. The remainder of this paper focusing on opportunities and challenges of the bilateral trade amongst these countries. The challenges that hinder cooperation are also elucidated in this paper.

Keywords: Bilateral Trade, Trade Relations, Economies, Challenges

Introduction 简介
Germany has the largest population in the European Union with 81.8 inhabitants in January, 2010 and its economy ranks 4th in terms of nominal GDP and 5th in terms of purchasing power in the world after US, China, Japan and India, as well as the largest in Europe in terms of purchasing power parity. [1] Germany is India's biggest trading partner in Europe and overall fifth biggest trading partner in the world. [2] and second largest in technology partnership with India.[3] The items which Germany exports to India are electrical generation equipment, chassis, motors and auto equipment, complete fabrication plants, bearings, gear equipment, measurement and control equipment, primary chemical products, synthetic material, machine tools, aircrafts and iron and steel sheets, etc. One of the strongest demands for German's commodities is automobiles. In 2009, Germany produced 5.2 million vehicles, and was the world's fourth largest producer and largest exporter of automobiles. [4]

The Economy of India is the ninth largest in the world by nominal GDP and the fourth largest by purchasing power parity (PPP). India becomes seventeenth largest exporter and eleventh largest importer in the world due to the development in trade and business. [5] India was Germany's 24th largest trade partner in 2010. [6] India climbing up the ladder by one rank, finishing as 23rd largest partner in previous year. While this is a positive development considering that India languished at 40th rank as Germany's export partner and was 36th placed as its source of imports in 2000, there is a significant room for improvement. The upward scope may be gauged by the fact that in 2011 much smaller economies like Poland and Slovakia had a higher trade volume with Germany than India did. [7] Indian merchandise exports to Germany are an integral part of the total Indian exports to Germany. Indian merchandise exports to Germany comprise of textiles, chemicals, metal products, leather, electro technical products, pharmaceuticals, and machinery. The main merchandise exported to Germany from India is textiles. It has been recorded that there has been a remarkable growth in the export of textiles from 1962-1990. [8] There are other prospective growth areas for the purpose of Indian merchandise exports to Germany, like software, biotech, and entertainment, medium range engineering goods, sports goods, toys, and Christmas decorations. [9] India is one of the Germany's most important partners in development cooperation which focuses on sustainable development, environment and energy. [10]

India and Germany have enjoyed long-standing historic and cultural ties and it's marked by decades of friendship and cooperation. India was the first nation to end the state of war with Germany after the Second World War. Diplomatic relations were taken up as early as 1951, but as Cold War politics unfolded and swept around the globe, ideological differences prevented the two countries from deepening and extending their relations and cooperation beyond trade, cultural exchange, and development assistance. For India and Germany it became necessary to revise its foreign policy and to think about the role it wanted to play in a post-Cold War world. The reforms of 1991 that included the liberalization of the economy, reduction of bureaucratic controls, and the opening of domestic markets and it was necessary to achieve and sustain economic growth and that great powers had to be sufficiently wealthy in order to act as a magnet of influence. Relations between India and Germany began to expand and changed rapidly in the last decade of the 20th century. German foreign policy realized the new potential of India and the 'Agenda for German-Indian Partnership in the 21st Century' finally created a formal framework for the future relations between the two countries. [11]

India and Germany are important partners on the international stage. They share a broad range of common values as well as common views on international issues and both are important countries in this increasingly globalised world. As more and more Indian companies are reaching overseas destinations to tap new markets and to acquire new technologies. German investment in India almost tripled in the first few years of economic reforms in 1991. India has achieved an impressive GDP growth of over 8 percent per annum in the last few years. Germany on the other hand enjoys the status of being Europe's largest economy. [12] The economic vitality, market size, geographical convenience coupled with the small bilateral trade shares implies that there is huge potential for enhancement of Indo-German trade.

There have been several ups and downs in the development of Indo-German trade over the last 50 years. While growth was steady at a much lower level before liberalization, Indo-German trade increased multi-fold post-liberalization. 1991, the year when the Indian markets opened up, was a significant year for Indo-German Trade as it marked a first-ever surplus for India. In the export following year (1992), imports grew more than exports, whereby exports and imports almost reached parity. From 1995 to 1997, imports from Germany overtook exports and trade volumes grew steadily with the impetus coming from import growth. From 1998 to 2002, the two-way trade increased significantly, however, India once again exported more to Germany than imported from the country.

Indo-German Bilateral Trade and Economic Relations:
Trade relations between India and Germany can be traced back to the 16th century. Due to India's dynamic economic growth, trade with India has increased considerably in the course of the last few decades. Indo-German trade cooperation's which have traditionally been close and expressive are particularly characterized by intensive co-operation in the fields of economy. Indo-German economic relations have taken shape as early as the 19th century with first German companies namely Krupp AG, Siemens and Bayer AG had entered into Indian market. Due to their high technological standards, efficient business, execution and long term commitment, German companies in India have earned themselves a good reputation. [13] Indo-German trade has increased multi-fold since reforms began in 1991 and the German exports to India have seen growth of about 16% yearly. [14] India offers a huge potential for foreign trade and investments. India's democracy and market economy ensure a sound political system and legal framework, fundamentally strong micro economic structure, skilful entrepreneurs and brilliant engineers. This means for India there is a huge untapped potential.

India's major exports to Germany normally consist of cotton garments and fabrics, leather and leather goods, chemical and pharmaceutical products, silk fabrics and garments and carpets and rugs as well as precious stones. India's chemical exports have been recording strong growth in the past two years. India's major imports from Germany are mainly machinery, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, electro technical goods, vehicles and iron and steel. It is one of the significant sectors of the advantageous bilateral trade between Germany and India. While Germany's export to India increased by 160 percent between 2005 and 2011, the volume of export conducted via Hamburg increased by as much as 272 percent. [15] The growth in bilateral exports and imports outperformed the overall growth in Germany's trade with the rest of the world. While Germany's exports to India grew by 17.1% on yearly basis and stood at a‚¬10.87 billion, the imports grew by 20.2% reaching a‚¬7.5 billion. [16] Germany is a long-standing and trusted partner in India's development effort, helping to tackle poverty while improving in particular healthcare and access to good education. Against the backdrop of India rapid economic growth, both sides are cooperating in high-technological areas such as civil aviation, solar energy, research on nuclear fusion, and information and communication technologies. The potential sectors that drew Germany investors' attention include telecommunication, insurance, banking and distribution. Further liberalization of the financial services sectors and effective implementation of telecom regulations are expected to expand the scope of European Union investment in India. [17]

Note: Since 2006-07, Petroleum figures are being computed from Import Daily trade Returns (DTRs) to generate country-wise/port-wise tables. Up to 2005-06 consolidated petroleum import figures were being received from the Petroleum Ministry.

Table: 1 show the import, export and total trade. In 2007-08 total trade was Rs. 166,817,522.10, the volume of trade crossed one more milestone of Rs.221,519,061.32 in 2008-09, and Rs.220,926,919.4 in 2009-10, though trade volume once again crossed the 22 crores mark, the volume of trade was Rs. 19942636940.86 less (-0.27%). In 2010-11, bi-lateral trade once again grew impressively posting a growth of nearly 27.93% the highest in the last three years. Trade between the two countries reached a volume of 282,638,887.75, adding on at least Rs.61711968.61 in 2010-11 over the previous year's figure. Bilateral trade once again posted a healthy rise to 381,142,264.41 in the year 2011. Expectations are that the a‚¬20 billion target by 2012 set by PM Dr. Manmohan Singh and German Chancellor Dr. Angela merkel will be achieved. However, with the slowdown in bilateral trade during first half of 2012, one has to wait and watch to see if bilateral trade will add on another a‚¬11 billion during second half of the year to reach the a‚¬20. The trade relations between India and Germany have been dynamic due to strong and vibrant cooperation at the commercial, culture and at strategic fronts. [18]

Fig.1 indicates the total trade growth which show total trades growth constantly increasing yearly as compare to previous year 2010-11 growth its now 37% in 2011-12 but there is slightly on lower side in 2009-10 while comparing the trade growth from 2008-09 i.e. 34% with 2010 -11 which shows that in 2008-09 more growth as compared to 2010-11.Fig.2 indicates total export growth and fig.3 indicates total import trade. In Fig.2 we can observe an export growth of 2008-09 was 28.9% and in Fig.3 import grew 35.77% which mean imports are more than export. 1n 2009-10 import and export are falling down due to recession. Import fall from 35.77% to -.078% and export fall from 28.9% to 0.58%. But in 2010-11 export grew double which come to 35.17% as compare to preceding year i.e.0.57%, import also grew from -.078% to 23.45%. In 2011-12 the export decreases from 35.17% to 28.26% and import increase from 23.45% to 39.32%. The bilateral trade is poised to grow at a rate of over 30 per cent annually and in the coming years even as major German automobile and aviation companies are planning investments in India. The bilateral trade relations have remarkably increased over the years and Indian and German firms have had their share of investment.

In 1998 Germany was India's fifths largest supplier, providing 7% of Indian imports and the third largest buyer absorbing 6% of Indian Exports. Among Germany's trading partners, India has 30th position in a world-wide ranking of suppliers and ranked 36th among buyers. [19]

The bilateral trade between India and Europe is expected to reach a‚¬160.6 billion by 2015. [20] Because of the wide-ranging demands emanating from Europe, seeking deeper tariff cuts and services liberalization; it is pertinent for the Indian authorities to organize countrywide consultations with state governments, local bodies, and other stakeholders before inking an agreement with EU." A confluence of a number of factors entails more than 1000 German companies who have either joint ventures or investment in the Indian companies. [21]

This quick reaction to the economic reforms shows Germany's sustained interest and belief in the potential of this country. The continuation of the economic reforms will have positive effects on the bilateral relation.

Opportunities and Challenges:
Technology Up gradations helps Indian economy in every field either in science and research or entertainments or industrial technologies, all will benefit the Indian economy in some form or another.

Growing demands of the Indian consumers is satisfied by the different kinds of consumer's goods.

Environmental protection and the necessity for the transfer of environmentally sound technology is perceived by the Indian populations and now more conscious towards the socio-environmentally issues.

Indian exports to Germany are getting highly developed and diversified the quality of goods and products are improving and now people focusing the quality products.

European Community and the creation of the European Monetary Union may boost economic growth and creating additional demand for Indian goods due to the large European market of nearly 380 million consumers with high purchasing power is open for imports from all over the world. The European Union is already by far India's biggest trading partner in the world.

Many reform projects have been brought up to create the framework for an increasing growth of economy. Indian takes care as well to fulfill its obligations demanded by the WTO. In April 2001 the restrictions of quantity for the last 715 groups of good shall be lifted.

Challenges of the trade agreement:
Some barriers to trade that need to be addressed are visa restrictions, labeling of pharma products, non-and trade barriers related to standards. As the recession hit the European Union hard and the markets being stagnant the corporate Europe along with the parties that protect their interest have all converged to expedite the trade agreement with India, so as to have an unlimited access and provide effective opportunity for competition in the vast Indian market.

International trade also involves some risks for a country because the international market conditions are out of the control of any government and are often unpredictable and liable to fluctuation. As the terms of trade change, a particular industry in a country can fall into decline, resulting in factory closures and unemployment. The labor market is not fully flexible, and workers may have difficulty retraining for other industries or moving to other locations to find work. Structural unemployment may therefore cause problems for a country's economy.

The informal sector is going to be hit hard by the agreements which comprise ninety-two percent of India's 457 million strong workforces with no job security and little income. The competition from subsidized EU imports will make them virtually out of their profession leading to poverty and loss of livelihood and would cause delay in delay in the entry of a generic medicine at affordable prices. India trade deficit is already high this agreement will make it more wide because EU companies have state-of art technical capabilities, robust supply chain which will make Indian product vulnerable and destroy the basic of Indian economy like Agriculture, banking.

A country may become too dependent on the export of a particular commodity; this leaves the economy vulnerable to fluctuations in the price of that commodity.

The distribution of income between countries may be more uneven as a result of international trade, because some countries will be able to take advantage of natural resources, skilled workforce or economies of scale to sell their goods and services internationally on favorable terms. Within each particular country, international trade may increase the gap between rich and poor because those who benefit most from international trade may be the rich elites who own the main assets of the country.

For individual firms trading internationally, the business risks are increased. They are exposed to the risk of falls in demand as a result of changes in taste or fashion and problems resulting from the introduction of new technology or more efficient processes by their international competitors. Credit risks can be high and the cost of borrowing may increase unexpectedly, making such firms uncompetitive.

The inflow of international goods into a country may cause other problems such as an erosion of the national culture.

The possibilities of further expansion in Germany-India bilateral trade has received mixed reviews. There are those who are optimistic that the 'titan's will witness greater interaction whilst some contend with them remaining as rivals and others feel that partnership will co-exist with competition. Having discussed the potentials for enhanced Germany-India bilateral trade, the opportunities to cooperate may however not materialize if current obstacles are not managed.

Conclusion 结论
India and Germany both are leading economies in their regions and Germany is a top global exporter. Both countries have high mutual respect based upon historical cultural understanding and shared interests. Germany has been a supporter of India's development process and has assisted India's growth across a range of sectors. There is need to rejuvenate the bilateral economic relationship and elevate it to a new trajectory. India offers not only a huge and growing domestic market, but also geographical proximity to countries in central, south east and west Asia. Under current circumstances of global economic downturn, forging closer relationships between regions such as EU and Asia is a focus area, and India and Germany can take the lead in this. Despite of economic relations, both sides declared their commitment to further deepen and strengthen the economic ties between India and Germany by opening markets, simplifying procedures, and overcoming judicial and administrative barriers of bilateral trade. Closely linked to expectations of profitable cooperation in the high technology, IT, and biotechnology sector is the realization that relations in the field of science and research have to be strengthened and deepened. Science, research and technology cooperation is the centre piece of Indo-German relations that will shape future relations between the two countries. Germany-India partnership is tapping into the enormous potential for further development. The India and Germany are strategic and natural partners that share the responsibility to address the challenges the world is currently facing and is also going to create conditions towards a sustainable and inclusive development in the long run. Towards this end, both learn to balance the gains and losses of trade to certain manufacturing sectors and identify complementarities in their products. More importantly, India in particular needs to build a more mature and balanced trading relationship with Germany. In this respect, India needs to diversify her export basket and step up production of higher value-added activities to increase and sustain her ties with Germany.