阿富汗政治随笔

阿富汗有发达的经济并且政府集中制，对生产货物和分配有这浓厚的兴趣，无论是私营机构还是政府部门这种规则都保持不变。阿富汗是南亚区域合作联盟（南盟）的成员。阿富汗是前部落区的一个组合或者也许是个混合体。驻留在阿富汗的主要族群是普什图语族，塔吉克族，哈扎拉族和乌兹别克族。对于大多数人来说，我们阿富汗过去30年还是以动荡为主。阿富汗各个年龄层的人除了知道入侵，攻击，攻击，战争，轰炸和残酷等等，，其他一无所知。

阿富汗现在正在恢复和重建国家的进程当中，政策决策者，学者和专家已经将致力于阿富汗的开发项目提上议程。自从与国际接轨十年以来，它仍然是世界上最贫穷的国家，如世界其他国家先前预期的一直没有得到足够的认可。

Afghanistan has a well developed economy and the system is centralized by government which takes keen interest in production and distribution of goods whether it is on private sector or government the rules remain the same.This country is a member of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).Afghanistantoday is a combination or perhaps a mixture of former tribal regions. The major ethnic groups which reside in Afghanistan are the Pashtu, Tajik, Hazara and Uzbek. For most of us, our images of Afghanistan are dominated by the upheaval of the past 30 years. An entire age group of Afghans has grown up knowing nothing but invasion, assault, attacks, war, bombing andcruelty.

The current process of ongoing rehabilitation and construction of state-building in Afghanistan has been seriously questioned by policy-makers, academics, and experts working on Afghanistan development project. It's been Ten years since the country has got International connections, yet it remains one of the poorest countries in the world or in other world has not received enough recognition as was expected earlier. Country and public both are facing serious challenges in regard to insecurity and international terrorism. According to a recent survey by the Asia Foundation, averagenumber of Afghans is losing hope in their country's future uplifting and development, (The Asia Foundation, 2010). In light of the current argument on the withdrawal of NATO and its forces from Afghanistan serious issue or concern remain to be overcome such as the weak, corrupt and dishonest Afghan government, ranked according to Transparency International in 2011 as the second most corrupt country in the world.

Afghan has useless security forces that vary to almost 300000, dependent Afghan economy which relies heavily on donor aid, and a growing revolution that has proven difficult to defeatthe Afghan government.

1In this assignment we will put some light on the matter that despite of large level of efforts by the international community in particular the United States still Karzai's government performance is weak and to a certain point of view it is intolerable and un acceptable to Afghan people as they suffer every day the number of problems which are growing specially insecurity, unemployment, violence and draught in recent years in various parts of central Afghanistan specially in small village areas.The United Nation Development Project index has ranked Afghanistan 155 among 169 countries which shows that despite of huge level of international funds, still people suffer from poverty, death rate, insecurity and transparency.

With reference to, ongoing issues in Afghanistan, it can be explained that there are trivial challenges towards state-building in Afghanistan such as:

1) Rule of law,
2) Deadline for withdrawal of the US and NATO forces from Afghanistan,
3) Drug economy,
4) Corruption and bribery
5) The Taliban uprising.

Above mentioned are most important issues which will be highlighted further in this research assignment.

Description: Background/History:
IF we go in history of Afghanistan it has proven to be the cemetery of empires, the Samanid (819-855) the British, the Russian (Goodson, 2001) as well as the birth and intersection of the empires such as the Ghaznavids between the era of 963-1187.

During the modern history of Afghanistan, Afghanis fought three times with the Great Britain known Anglo-Afghan wars: the first war took place in (1838-1842), second took place in (1878-1880) era and finally third took place in 1919 that caused the independence of Afghanistan. (Goodson, 2001) However, this did not gave relief to local residents of Afghan and was not the last war for the Afghan people cause in early 1980, the Soviet now known as Russia occupied Afghanistan (Olivier, 1991).and later the Red army forced to leave Afghanistan on February 15, 1989. Thus, the people paid a huge cost in terms of their lives, their houses, their families and their rights to live independently while fighting against the Russians, but unfortunately war never ended and took long to last. It was finally resolved and came to an end in December 2001.

2Afghanistan now was a free market economy but eventually it went from a traditional economy to a centrally planned economy up until 2002.Gross domestic product has fallen considerably since the 1980s due to disruption and disorder of trade and transport as well as loss of labor and capital. Continuing internal conflict severely disadvantaged domestic efforts of Afghanistan to rebuild the nation or provide ways for the international community to help in form of funds.

According to the International Monetary Fund, the Afghan economy grew 20% in the fiscal yearwhich ended in March 2004, after expanding 30% in the previous 12 months. The growth is attributed to international aid and to the end of droughts and inflation. An estimated $4.4 billion of aid entered the nation from 2002 to 2004. A GDP of $4 billion in fiscal year 2003 was recalculated by the IMF to $6.1 billion, after adding proceeds from opium products. Mean graduate pay was $0.56 per man-hour in 2010.

Main body of argument/ Key points:
Previous years of war, violence and disturbance have left a terrible legacy in Afghanistan. It has always been a poor country; today it faces huge challenges difficulties in various factors of day to day life. According to UNICEF:

Afghanistan has the second highest infant death rate in the world.

Due to poor medical resources babies die in early ages and often during birth itself.

One in seven children is an orphan.

One in eight women die in childbirth.

Only 28% of adults are literate. Educated women population rate is less than a third that of men.

Average annual income is $US250.

Life expectation is 44 years.

30% of children aged 5 to 14 years are forced to work rather studying.

More than 70,000 Afghans have been killed or injured by landmines since the beginning of 1989.

At present, Afghanistan's most profitable industry is its criminal opium trade.About 92% of the world's heroin originates in Afghanistan and opium accounts for 53% of the country's GDP according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). Most of that heroin is disbursed in the USA and Europe. Opium poppies are not a traditional crop; it is the economic hardships of the last decades that have seen aintense shift in agricultural production away from crops such as grains, cotton, fruit and nuts to opium poppies.

A critical factor in addressing many of Afghanistan's most pressing problems - poverty, dependence on the drug trade, a destroyed infrastructure - is the need for education. Under the Taliban, girls schools were closed, women were barred from universities and boys schools became madrassahs - religious schools. Afghanistan cannot afford another generation of young people to grow up without education or skills. Without a serious investment in the children of Afghanistan, any security gains will be short-lived.

Risk Assessment

Persistent structural weaknesses

Due to the drought Afghanistan's economic growth slowed in 2011. Opium production, which belongs to the informal sector, was reduced by half. Due to the great work of Non- agriculture sectors Economic enthusiasm is expected to strengthen in 2012.Foreign direct investments (2.3% of GDP), particularly from China, will continue due to the country's abundant natural resources (natural gas, oil, coal, copper, zinc, iron ore, precious stones etc.). The tertiary sector (transport, mobile telephony) and thetrade sector (textiles, soap, and carpets) will carry ongrowing with the rise of spending on development (infrastructures, particularly in the border areas, energy, sanctuary and security of residents). However, due to the problems of security the operation of a gas pipeline through Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India will continue to be endangered for time being. Private expenditurelinked to illegal poppy harvests, stimulated partly by large revenues, will remain vibrant. The country still has predominant drug economy- opium is the most important crop grown in Afghanistan and even thoughof itsdeficiency in production it remains significant and highly considerable. The economic impact of opium crop growing is important as it redirect some 10% of the population from the traditional labor market which holds almost 2.2 million farmers and accounts for $2.8 billion or 20% of official GDP. Moreover, this traffic leads to extensive corruption and strengthen the power of certain local monarch.

Financial situation still weak

Until 2014 the Afghan economy is estimated to suffer from the withdrawal of the international coalition's armed forces. This will result in a turn down in retail sales (the troops consuming locally), the transfer of part of the spending to the Afghan establishment and the going away of certain non-governmental organizations. In a country where 60% of the population lives below the poverty porch, the capability of the authorities to provide public services remains closely linked to funding from the international neighborhood. 11% of GDP is domestic tax revenues, from the international neighborhoodwhich amounts to 41% of GDP. The pulling out of western countries from Afghanistan territory and the increase in spending on security services will lead to a decline of the economicshortage. One of the major challenges for the Afghanistan state will therefore be to expand an efficient tax system. In spite of the cancellation of mutual debt and a moderate level of foreign debt (8.5% of GDP), this way Afghanistan continues to present animportant risk of default. [3] 

Banking system undermined by governance problems

Since 2008 domestic credit to the private sector has advantaged from continuous growth, this is anticipated to be slow considerably in 2012 with the boost in non-performing loans. Leaving the biggest Afghan bank "Kabul Bank" (representing one third of deposits and half of loans) which is under managerial supervision, all other banks are underlining the risks linked to quick banking sector growth in a country as they are Suffering from a lack of prudential supervision. Subsequent governance problems affecting few state projects (corruption, funding of criminal activities, money laundering), the recent undertaken audits, took place particularly in order to protect the state's access to the financial resources of the IMF.

Political instability

The presidential elections held in 2009 saw they re-election of Hamid Karzai for a 5-year term. The transfer of security tasks to the Afghan army in the year 2011 was noticeable in a number of provinces. The complete withdrawal of western armed forces will be done until the end of 2014, which could lead to a deterioration and corrosion of the security situation. In this assignment, the business environment will remain affected by widespread corruption in Afghan country, the strength of the informal sector, under-development of the institutions and lack of rule of law in country.

Constant weaknesses
Thanks to farm performance sustained by good weather and enormous investments by foreign contributors which led to enlargement in economic activities speedily in 2009 and 2010, predominantly in the construction sector. In 2010/11, the economy slowed due to aggravation and hassle of the armed conflict anddue to poor infrastructure (especially electricity and sanitary), which continued in 2011 and up to now. The speed of GDP growth will however remain satisfactory and acceptable driven by strong private expenditure, encouraged to a largelevel by the large incomes resulting from prohibited opium crops with the drug-based economy remaining biggest. Opium is the most important crop, and its production continues to grow speedily. Afghanistancreated over 90% of the global supply in 2010 where as it was only 52% in 1995 this was mainly due to the cultivation of opium which has a huge impact on the economy since it nominates nearly 10% of the traditional working population (or some 2.2 million farmers on average level) and represents $2.8 billion in dealings, or 20% of executive GDP. Besides, unlawful activities aid the very wide-spread corruption, dishonesty and strengthen the power of certain local emperors. [4] 

Still unstable and shaky financial position
Afghanistan remains heavily reliant on international financial aid. But large official transfers have worked hard to facilitate it to improve its financial proportion. And in January 2010 the country reached the achievement point under the HIPC program paving the way for termination of debt with multilateral institutions.

In July 2010 moreover the IMF granted Afghanistan three-year enlarged credit abilityplanned to guaranteeefficient management of funding to improve collection of economic revenues, tomake strongerthe oversight of public sector finances and of the banking sector. Indeed, management of the banking sector was found to be mainlypoor in September 2010 when Kabul Bank, which was responsible for paying the wages of approximately 250,000 civil servants working in the police forces and the army, accounted large losses resulting from enormous investments in the Dubai property market. Although the resultant depositor run on the bank encouraged Kabul Bank's president and organization director to resign, insolvency of the bank was ultimately averted with crucial Central Bank support. A main purpose of the IMF program will thus be to strengthen the clearnessand vagueness of Afghanistan's financial institutions in future.

Tense and uptight political situation in the stir of the presidential elections
The last elections of presidential position in August 2009 and parliamentary seat in September 2010 - were marked by low voter audience and the results were disputed. This is the reason why the authority enjoyed by President Karzai and the new government is thus very low. And thus the central government experiencesthe difficulties in exercisingits authority in some provincial areas.

When it comes to NATO forces, they have still not thrived in taking back Taliban-controlled areas in the South and some provinces have become Al Qaida refuges. As a result, although the United States has intended a steady withdrawal of troops starting July 2011, they will neverthelessuphold a presence in the country until 2014 to fightagainst any terrorism.

Strengths

Support in form of fundsfrom the international neighborhood
advantaged from cancellation of debt under international debt relief programs
Weaknesses
State of war,
withdrawal of international alliance armed forces including NATO
Unstable geopolitical situation
extensive corruption
Weak banking system [5] 

Afghanistan: Voice of Afghan people for Human Rights, Security, State and National Development
Afghans want to be well-informed and educated, inside and outside the borders of their country, how much the country has urbanized and how the International Community and the British Government in particular have helped in bringing changes and profit to Afghanistan and to people's lives. It is important that people appreciate the positive sides of things and play their role consequently and accordingly. And not support what they hear from groups who oppose and combat the Western values.

Afghans must get involved in educating their family, friends and local districts to cooperate and value the British support as exclusive opportunities for the good of the country and let others to understand the good work that sets up and help many basic and progressed systems either they are political, or economical, or social, or agricultural and/or environmental for Afghanistan.

There are many foundations of information available to Afghans that can be more harmful then of any good. On the other hand, if we start an Afghan television channel for Afghanistan from London, it would bring more positive results, which will almost be impossible to achieve in the same level of respect alone on the ground through Afghan government, local projects and/or through simple peacekeeping seminars.

Afghan Academy International has achieved the respect of Afghan community for the last 30 years and most Afghans, as well as political and religious groups and their legislative body here in the UK, have respect and good relationship with us and appreciate our work and activities.

Afghan Academy International has an exclusive team of Afghan experts, academics, scholars, musicians, artists, poets, writers, business men as well as former army officials and generals who support with Afghan projects.

This is an exceptional opportunity to form a podium to voice Afghan concerns and broadcast Afghan local work and activities, reflecting on many progress Plans in Afghanistan and thus the British support,cooperation and involvements in the country will be depicted successfully.

The opponent groups are still engaged in bloody war and the government is struggling to maintain power and survive over them. We the Afghans believe that a knot that can be opened by hand does not need biting and/or the usage of daggers. We would only like to discuss these issues in more details and I pray that, together, we Afghans can have a better future in Afghanistan. We should aim for a peaceful future, where hosting the world with love, respect and cooperation will be the honor and joy for the Afghanis. [6] 

What do I want for my country's future?
The first thing that I want for the future of my country is peace and up to the end of my life I will personally be trying my best to spread peace all over Afghanistan. My country has been confounded by more than three decades in war. The people are anguishedwith many problems, more than a million people have been killed and still many are injured. Every week many innocent people are being killed by suicide bombers including afghan locals and other nationalities. Afghanistan must also have strong security capacities and the capabilities to prevent suicide attacks and to protect Afghanistan and Afghans from all forms of violence. Without strong protection, education is not possible.

The second thing I want for my country's prospect is educated Afghans. Many Afghans want to study but they don't have the amenitiesto study. Education can bring our country in the row of developed countries like USA, Canada, and Russia etc. However, for Afghans to be educated there must be a proper education system, one that gives us the ability to stand up to world standards. But education in Afghanistan is backward and so one example of the outcome of this is that many of our doctors are unqualified. Instead of curing their patients, they end up killing them by offering them the wrong treatments and medicines. The government of Afghanistan has to improve our educational condition. I want to see an Afghanistan that has professional teachers and a lot of universities with the capacity to educate people for reasons that go beyond making money. Childhood is a time for learning, for getting an education, and yet in Afghanistan, many children are working on the streets. Some are washing cars; some are selling gum or other inexpensive items, while others are simply begging for money for their families. This is very upsetting to watch as their childhood should be protected they should be given proper education, food, shelter and other necessary needs rather begging or working on streets.

Thirdly I want to see the development of government employees,these people who are there to be of service to the local peoplebut they are [inappropriately] filling their pockets with the money earned by hardworking citizens. Corruption and dishonesty brings countless problems and difficulties to human society and the natural upbringing. We need to take out the corruptionfrom its roots from this country which cannot be done individually. We all need to work together side by side helping each other to do so.

Economic growth is also necessary for our country. A lot of people in Afghanistan are begging or working very hard for a very small amount of money. There is too much poverty everywhere - in villages, provinces and cities of Afghanistan. Therefore fourthly I want to see the day when there are busy factories across Afghanistan that provide different types of employment for all those people who today are jobless and for the children who are the future of our country.

Conclusion  结论

In short to uplift Afghanistan from where it is today to a developed countries list government has to play an important role by providing better education facilities to their children and increase employment opportunities so that no one has to beg on streets, People are to be educated with not only academic education but also with sense of moderation. As these days we can find extremists in Afghanistan which led to violation and other disruptions in country due to their extreme views related to simple rules of life.

Afghanistan is an independent country according to books and dates but actually if we go in detail people are still not independent they are suffering from problems like insecurity, suicide bombers in abundance, protestors, illiterate men who treat women as slaves and give them no equal rights, corruption, terrorism, no welfare for children etc. All these problems are not a big deal if each individual performs his/ her duty properly. These problems and hurdles made by people themselves for another fellow beings to suffer , To overcome such problem we all need to stand united and finish the unlawful acts taken upon by number of people within us. Afghanistan was a beautiful country gifted by God to its creation. And now it's on us whether we enhance the beauty of our gift or we ignore it and let others spoil it till the end. Just as we say before judging others one need to peak in to oneself character similarly before we ask for any neighborhood aid we all Afghanis together need to stand united for preservation of our rights. We need to hold hand in hand and not let any other nation rule over us. Our children are our flowers which bloom in gardens. They are our future we need to stand together for them. We have to provide them not only shelter, food and clothing but also proper education. We need to provide them with such education that in future we don't have to bring employees from different countries to come and re construct and rehabilitate Afghanistan instead we should have our own labor and our own engineers and architects and doctors etc. this will give a full stop to unemployment in country as well. We also need to impart our local people with knowledge of what is right and what is wrong so they may not astray.

And in the end I would like to request all my fellow Afghani friends with a small example When we are born we love our mothers, with time we grow up, they give us all knowledge they have and then comes the time when they become old and weak my question is do we leave them suffering on their own during this time or we take care of them, I am sure majority would reply by saying we take care of them till our last breaths. This is what we need to do now Afghanistan was given to us as a beautiful country we destroyed it with time now we together need to take care of it and up bring it to the standard of international countries. And I am sure my country has resources as well as hardworking people who can easily manage to do so.

References, Bibliography & Appendices (data, sound, pics, etc.)(Harvard system)  参考文献

Afghanistan in 2010: A Survey of the Afghan People, (2010). Retrieved: September 3,2011, the Asia Foundation.

CIA World Factbook (November 2011)

U.S. Dept. of State Country Background Notes ( November 2011)

Goodson P. Larry, Afghanistan's Endless War, State Failure, Regional Politics, and the Rise of the Taliban, University of Washington Press: 2001.

Country and Business Climate Ratings courtesy of Coface (09/2012)

Risk Assessment and methodology courtesy of Coface (09/2012).

By ShapurAmini, Afghan Academy International UK (July 2012)

UN Human Development Index (2010), Retrieved: September 3, 2011. Sharan, Timor (2011), Retrieved: September 3, 2011. The Dynamics of Elite Networks and Patron-Client Relations in Afghanistan. Routledge: Europe-Asia Studies