关于政治叛乱的研究
叛乱是有组织的运动,旨在通过颠覆和武装冲突来推翻政府。这是一个旷日持久的政治军事斗争,旨在削弱政府控制,同时增加叛军控制的合法性。政治斗争是叛乱的主要问题。它是无法通过常规手段达到自己的政治军事目标的群体采取的策略。
叛乱的特点是长期的和非对称的暴力,占据有利地形(丛林,山地,市区),再加上大量使用心理战并动员群众,一切旨在保护叛乱分子,最终通过他们的努力改变权力。叛乱分子可能企图夺取政权,取代现有的政府(革命的叛乱),也可能有更多的目标,如自主性,或某项政策的改变。
他们避免对抗在他们薄弱的领域,例如常规军事能力,他们做的更多的是心理和政治工作。叛军尽量推迟自己的行动,避免失败,维持并且扩大他们的支持力度,并希望随着时间的推移,政治权力的平衡对他们有利的方向变化。
1.An insurgency is organized movement aimed at the overthrow of a constituted government through use of subversion and armed conflict. It is a protracted politico military struggle designed to weaken government control and legitimacy while increasing insurgent control. Political struggle is the main issue in an insurgency. It is a strategy adopted by groups which cannot attain their politico-military goals through conventional means .
Insurgency is characterized by protracted and asymmetric violence, which flourishes in the favorable terrain (jungles, mountains, urban areas) coupled with extensive use of psychological warfare, and mass mobilization-all designed to protect the insurgents and finally alter the balance of power in their favor. Insurgents may attempt to seize power and replace the existing government (revolutionary insurgency) or they may have more limited aims such as autonomy, or alteration of a particular policy.
They avoid confrontation in the fields where they are weakesta,
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