2000 - 2010年期间，利率和股票价格在中国的关系分析

1999年在怀俄明州举行的货币政策会议上，格林斯潘美联储主席强调，美联储的货币政策将采取积极的股市因素考虑在内（华盛顿邮报，2005年）。货币政策与资产价格之间的关系，仍是当前的货币结构理论，脱颖而出前沿问题，尤其是在大力发展的中国（彭，2011年）。本文将详细谈到中国的货币政策和股票价格的问题，特别是从2000年到2010年这将首先集中于周期性变化，中国的货币政策（尤其是在基准利率）和股票价格（基于上证综合指数），然后流下光经测试为他们的关系。第三部分将集中在利率对股票价格参照相关股票定价模型的影响。此外，利率和股票价格之间的互动影响进行了分析，旨在对应的周期。最后，，一些一般的意义和局限性就会显露出来。

In the Monetary Policy meeting held in Wyoming in 1999, Greenspan, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, emphasized that the FED’s monetary policy would positively take stock market factors into account (The Washington Post, 2005). The relationship between monetary policy and asset price, is still one forefront question in current monetary theory, especially in vigorously developed China (Peng, 2011). This essay will elaborate the issue referring to China’s monetary policy and its stock price, especially from 2000 to 2010. It will firstly focus on the periodic changes in China’s monetary policy (especially in Benchmark Interest Rates) and stock price (based on SSE Composite Index), and then shed light upon the test for their relationship. The third part will concentrate onthe influence of interest rate on stock price with reference to relevant stock pricing models. Furthermore, interactive impactsbetween interest rate and stock price are analyzed aiming atcorresponding periods. Finally, some general implications and limitations will be revealed.

Part I: Overview of Periodic Changes in Interest Rate and Stock Price
Monetary Policy and Interest Rates in China during 2000 – 2010
National GDP Annual Growth Rate in China during 2000-2010
Monetary policy is the process by which the monetary authority of a country controls the supply of money. It often targets interest rate for the purpose of promoting economic development and stability (Filecluster, 2010), and is reflected by National GDP figures tosome extent (Judd, 1993). In order to efficiently understand China’s monetary policy during 2000 – 2010, the National GDP Annual Growth Rate in China during 2000-2010 will be analyzed in Chart One. In general, China’s GDP experienced the boom-decline-rehabilitation process of during these ten days.
Part II: Test for Relationship between Benchmark Interest Rate and Stock Price
Part III: Influence of Interest Rate on Stock Price with reference to MODELs
Part IV: Interactive Impacts between Interest Rate and Stock Price in PRACTICEs

Part V: Conclusion and limitations总结

In conclusion, the periodic changes in China’s monetary policy (especially interest rates) and stock price during 2000 – 2010 is revealed at the start of this essay. Test for their relationship is then conducted. In order to grasp the relationship between interest rate and stock price, an analysis of their interactive impacts is launched from theoretical and practical perspectives. However, this analysis ignores the difference between the nominal interest rate and the real interest rate, neglects other factors in monetary policy (such as exchange rate), and overlooks the insignificant change in either interest rate or stock price during 2000 – 2010. These problems are worth to be considered in further research and investigation.


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Appendix One: National GDP in China during 2000-2010