英国本科毕业论文—“沉默的螺旋”理论研究报告

发布时间：2016-05-13 10:26

本文是基于媒介理论“沉默的螺旋”的研究报告，办报告的目标是研究该理论的具体细节，对其进行证实，并研究它是如何运用到这个社会当中去的，尤其是在互联网行业。本报告概括了我在书籍、数据库、期刊和外源的帮助下所取得的一些发现。基于这个理论，，伊丽莎白▪诺埃尔▪诺依曼声称，如果人们认为自己是少数群体中的一员，因为害怕被孤立，他们通常不会表达自己的观点。有很多其他的理论学者支持诺依曼的观点，也有学者在她之前就作出了这类表述。

目前有很多关于这个理论的不同形式的研究，但是都集中在一件事情上，那就是，“对社会孤立的恐惧”。学者们使用了很多种研究方法。据说这个理论能够运用到很多微妙的领域，比如战争，政治，权力滥用，以及其他会引起极大争论的问题。这也是当人们认为自己处于少数群体当中，在发表意见之前就会深思熟虑的原因。在对该理论的含义有了较好了解之后，我将会对该理论进行验证，依据我所掌握的所有信息，证实这个理论与社会、个人的联系。

引言——Introduction

This is a report based on the communication theory “Spiral of Silence'' and the aim of the report is to investigate the theory more into detail, to validate it and to see how it applies to our society, mainly in the I.T industry. The report outlines the finding that I have researched and complied with the help of books, data bases, journals and external sources. Based on the theory, Elizabeth Noelle Neumann stated that if individuals believed that they are part of the minority, the less likely they are to voice their opinion due to the fear of isolation. There were many other theorists that supported her view and others that had stated so before her.

There was a variety of theory being investigated and in many different forms but the all focused on one thing which was, the “fear of social isolation”. There were many forms of research method used. The theory is said to apply to very delicate topics such as war, politics, misuse of authority and other views that could cause massive debate. This is the reason why people tend to think twice when it comes to voicing their views if they believe that they are in the minority group. Having a fair idea of what the theory is about, I will validate the theory with all the information that I have found and prove the theory stating if the theory has any connection to our society and individuals.

引言——Introduction

Purpose

This report is based on the theory spiral of silence those main purpose is to state how it can be applied to everyday situations and particularly the I.T industry. Research is an investigative process where we search systematically for solutions to problems. It is about rules to guide our research and helping us to evaluate the research of others. The function of the research is to test the theory. Research is the instrument used to test whether a theory is correct or not. It is the process by which data is gathered to generate a theory and used to test a theory. This main purpose for this report is to explain the theory in detail and outline the key issues that the theory sates. Also it helps us understand communication theory better and clearer, since communication is an important skill to have in the I.T industry and we also use it in our everyday lives, it is an important skill to have. There are a lot of topics and political problems that people are afraid to talk about and speak out on and so I will try to prove or investigate the theory and see if the theory relates to what it states and if the theorist's is credible.

Scope

In the report I will be investigating the theory and its relationship it has to communication. I will also evaluate the credibility of the theorists and the theory and how it can be applied to the present day situations particularly in the information technology industry. There were a lot of different views expressed and in different context. I will be focusing more in the involvement and effect that the media has on us as individuals in forming opinions. Since media is seen to play a major role in this theory, I will focus more on it but not forgetting the other factors that may cause the spiral of silence. I will also outline some of the tests and experiments that were done by some scholars and theorist and evaluate it.

Limitations

During the overall completion of the project I did face certain problems and ran into difficulties. Firstly although there was enough time given to complete the research I had other projects to complete, which in turn made it difficult to compile the report. There was however a bit of restriction on the amount of information that was available on the internet, in that case I had rely on the other sources like the pro-quest and the online data base. There weren't many books available in the library that contained information regarding my theory so my tutor was able to issue me with some books which did help me compile my research. The computer labs on campus were usually occupied and so I had to do most of my research and the typing at home.

Research Methods

Searching for information and investigating the theory was a very challenging task to do especially when here were limited resources available on the internet. There were information available but most of it had similar information which made it hard to use. I had to use all resources available including library data bases, internet and old scholar journals.

I wasn't really able to find any books in the library, but I was able to get two books from my tutor that contained information about my theory and it provided me with a lot of details that helped me understand the theory in details and explained the theory in detail and context. It explained a lot about the theory stating the history and how it is viewed by the public and each individual.

Most of the information which I found on the internet was manly repeated and each website stated almost similar information which really stated the same information. The only relevant information that I was able to use was the information about the theory and the theorist.

The Scholar journals did have a bit more information about the theory which mainly based on a research that was done. I found some journal that stated a research and the findings of the investigation. It looked at the theory in a different form in which it was applied in an investigation and research.

Structure Of The Report

In this report I will briefly explain and introduce the theory then explain the purpose, scope, research methods and limitations of the research. I will also do a literature review that will briefly review some of the sources where I got my information from. The main body will contain the findings, background, key issues, and application of the theory then finally evaluate it. In the final part I will summarise my report and then state my opinions and thoughts about the theory.

Literature Review

Book 1: Communication Theories for Everyday Life.John R. Baldwin, Stephen D. Perry, Mary Anne Moffitt. (2003). Communication Theories for Everyday Life (1st Edition). Person: Allyn & Bacon, Inc.

Summary.The book Communication Theories for Everyday Life (New Edition) provides us with a lot of information on the theory by Elizabeth Neumann, The Spiral of silence. The author's in this book mainly focus the theory spiral of silence based on the media which is said to play an influential role. They believe that the media plays an important role in influencing the public into making decisions or ideas. They explained how the theory provides some insight into why we might avoid contributing to some political discussions but participate fully in others based on our observation of opinion in the real world. Sports can also bring out heated opinions in certain settings with fans of a certain team will argue or debate amongst a member of the opposing teams. When issues like this arise we tend to be more careful about when and to whom we express our ideas and opinions. We are constantly surveying our environment subconsciously for trends in public opinions. Television is believed to be the most influential medium for this theory since it is everywhere. We may not own a TV of our own but we see it in stores, airports or at a friend's house. Being part of the majority is what most people tend to want and we will compare our opinions with that of the majority because we desire social inclusion. Therefore if someone believes he or she is in the minority, that person will be inhibited from speaking out and expressing the minority view point.

Validation.After carefully reading and analysing the following abstract from the book, I conclude that the facts that were stated in this book do have some connections to the theory. They have outlined a lot of ideas to what the theory spiral of silence is about. It also points out some important facts mainly that mass media is seen to be a very important tool in changing people's views or forming their decisions. Since people tend to base their decisions on the majority's choice. It also provides some insight into how television actually has an impact on the people as a whole. It proves that people are double mined on speaking out as a minority and will be more comfortable if they believe that they are part of the majority. Since there is a lot of support in the majority we won't fear social isolation, but if we are in the minority there is not much support and so we fear that we are on our own and so we may be isolated. According to the theory by Elizabeth she believes that mass media does have a huge effect on the theory and so the authors have based most of their finding on Neumann's theory about the media. Most of the information in the abstract concentrates on the media's influence, changes and perceptions that it may have on our opinions.

Book 2: Introducing Communication Theory: Analysis Application.Richard West, Lynn H. Tuner. (2004). Introducing Communication Theory: Analysis Application (2nd Edition). Marquette University

Summary.The Book Introducing Communication Theory: Analysis Application, explains the theory spiral of silence by Elizabeth Noelle Neumann. It explains how the media has impacted our opinions and changed dramatically over the years. The authors stated that over the years the media has helped to shape and make us what we are today. They believe that Neumann focused on what happened when people provide their opinions on a variety of issues that the media have defined for the public. Her theory suggests that people who believe that they hold a minority viewpoint on the public issue will remain in the background or isolated. Where their communication will be constrained, those who believe that they hold a majority viewpoint will be encouraged to speak out. Neumann stated that the media will focus more on the majority views while underestimating the minority viewpoint. She believes that the media will only be focused on the minority and their views while forgetting the minority groups. The minority will be less assertive in communicating their opinions therefore leading to a downward spiral of communication. The minority will then overestimate their influence and will become emboldened in their opinions where the media reports on their opinions and activities. The media is seen to play a very important role in the theory. The media chooses to report on the majority group's opinions and activities and only tend to focus on them where they will be heard by the public. The minority will then be forgotten and so their opinions and view s are not heard.

Validation.The authors have highlighted some very important points about the theory. Mass media being the main focus, it has a lot of influence on people's opinions. It is seen to be a very powerful tool that could change people's views and mentality. It has the power to influence and change people beliefs, making them believe what they are told or shown. It is human mentality to go with the flow and just follow the crowd. We are easily convinced just because the majority rules. If we had to debate a topic and asked to choose an answer we tend to choose the group where there is a lot of support forgetting about the minority. The authors are just moving on from Neumann's theory to explaining more into detail the role of the media on our opinions. Thought they may not have done any research on the theory, they have research more on the theory and explained it in simple terms.

Findings

About The Theorist

Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann is a German political scientist that was born on the 19th of December, 1916. Her most famous contribution is the model of the spiral of silence which is an explanation of how perceived public opinion can influence individual opinions or actions. She earned her Abitur in 1935 in Göttingen and then studied philosophy, history, journalism, and American studies at the Friedrich Wilhelm University, the Königsberg Albertina University, and the University of Missouri. She lived in the USA from 1937 to 1938 andiIn 1940 she received her PhD concentrating on public opinion research in the USA. Noelle-Neumann was also the president of the World Association for Public Opinion Research from 1978 to 1980 and worked as a guest professor at the University of Chicago from 1978 to 1991.

About The TheorySpiral of Silence is an innovative theory of public opinion that developed by Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann. Noelle-Neumann follows the paths of past philosophers Locke, Hume, Rousseau, Goethe, and James Madison, in that she considers public opinion a physical force that controls people's decisions. Noelle-Neumann blames the spiral of silence on fear of isolation. In other words, people who feel that they are in the minority may keep quiet because they fear ridicule from the majority.

The phrase “spiral of silence" refers to how people tend to stay silent when they feel that their views are in the minority. The model shows the increasing pressure which people are noticing to conceal their views when they think that they are in the minority. It is a political science and mass communication theory which begins with fear of reprisal or isolation, and escalates from there.

Spiral of Silence model The model is based on three premises:

1. People have a sixth-sense, which allows them to know the prevailing public opinion, even without access to polls.

2. People have a fear of isolation and know what behaviours will increase their likelihood of being socially isolated.

3. People are silent to express their minority views, primarily out of fear of being isolated.

Introduction

Elizabeth Neumann examines public opinion as a form of social control. She believes that Individuals instinctively notice the opinions of those around them and shape their behaviour according to what is acceptable. The closer a person believes the opinion held is similar to the prevailing public opinion, the more he/she is willing to openly disclose that opinion in public. If the public statement changes, the person will recognize that the opinions loses its popularity and the person will be less willing to express that opinion publicly.

In her model of opinion formation, Elizabeth Noelle-Neumann postulates a spiral of silence: to avoid isolation, people holding minority views either change their ideas to conform to the majority's views or remain silent, thus increasing the impression of the majority view's dominance. While providing a helpful integration of disparate ideas in public opinion formation, Noelle-Neumann's framework has been questioned at a number of points. Is it reasonable to assume that since people fear isolation, most fear being in the minority? Her research suggests, in fact, that many people can oppose majority views as long as they have individual or group support and that interpersonal relationships have a greater impact on opinion formation than impersonal public opinion presented through the media. Recent studies have also offered an alternative to Noelle-Neumann's view of people as simply reacting to their perception of public opinion, suggesting that instead, people use their own opinions to form their perceptions of public attitudes. Whether people's behaviour resembles the reaction or projection model may depend on a number of conditions, including their familiarity with the issue. Further research is needed on the many factors influencing opinion formation

The Fear Of Isolation

This is the main force that drives the spiral of silence. People want to be identified as a winner and therefore conform to the majority's beliefs. The last thing that people want is to be isolated from agroup or society. There are some exceptions though, as there is a time to speak and a time to keep silent which is centred on public opinion. If our view is in favour we will speak out then when our views drop out of favour, we will most defiantly keep silent.

Summary

In 1973, Elizabeth Noelle- Neumann articulated one of the few integrated expositions of the mass communication effects and the process of public opinion. In general she was able to demonstrate that individuals can attempt to gauge majority opinion on an issue and that some individuals appear to be influenced by their perceptions of majority opinion on some issues. In doing so she was successful in clarifying and empirically testing hypothesis about a concept that has been only vaguely defined in public opinion. In this report I will be outlining Noelle-Neumann's conceptualization of two key concepts, the climate of opinion and that spiral of silence of silence. The validity of basing the “fear of isolation” concept on social psychological literature on conformity is examined. Also the role of the media in conveying the majority opinion will be examined.

The Spiral Of Silence

According to Noelle- Neumann, individuals are constantly sensitive to the climate of opinion and assess the distribution and strength of the opinion for and against their own. The tendency of one to speak up and others to be silent leads to the spiralling process which increasingly establishes one opinion as the popular one. Neumann's definition of public opinion is best expressed as the dominating opinion which compels compliance of attitude a behaviour in that it threatens the dissenting individuals with isolation. There are a few individuals that are known as “hardcores” who are willing to express their opinions without feeling compelled to conform. They will not be silent in the face of the public opinion. How do individuals know which opinions are acceptable to express in public without the fear of isolation? Neumann claims that by the use of a “quasi-statistical organ”, the individual assesses the opinion environment. The individual will the specifically use the climate of opinion. The media plays an important role through agenda-setting, according to certain persons and arguments relating the urgency or share of success for various opinions.

One of the main parts of the explanation to the spiral of silence is the role of mass media. Noelle-Neumann believes that with more people watching mass media, the more the minority will keep quite because they will think that they are even more of a minority that they actually are. She claims that this is so because it is becoming the only media outlet that people are using, along with the internet, so it is able to control exactly what people see or hear. The media know this and because of that, they use their powers to influence the public opinion as much as possible towards which ever beliefs they hold or want to put across. Noelle-Neumann claimed that in the early seventy's, the media had powerful effects, particularly over opinion formation. She believed that it was deficient because it was conducted under laboratory conditions and not in the field. Mass media is everywhere and individuals can rarely escape accumulation of the same media message.

It was also found that in any circumstance a person with low self-esteem is less likely to speak out even if they agree with the majority opinion, simply because that is what their personality dictates. She also discovered that having diverse reporting has a powerful role in the mass media and the views of those watching it. Since the media is diverse, and it shares different view points on a subject, then people will be more willing to take different sides of an argument because they will not feel as alienated as before.

The elements of Noelle-Neumann's ideas can also be found in several scholarly works including Floyd Allport (1978) who described the climate of opinion. John Locke (1961) describes Noelle-Neumann's “hardcores” when he says “nor is there one of ten thousand who is stiff and insensible enough to bear up under the constant dislike and condemnation of his own club” W.Phillps Davison (1975) describes the public opinion process of conformity-induced silence occurs when an individual feels he/she is in the midst of a hostile majority. Thus the concept of the opinion climate and the spiral of silence are not new. Noelle-Neumann was able to articulate a thesis based on these concepts and generated data to support some of her contentions. When Noelle Neumann was forced to revise her theory to accommodate the other findings, the theory became much better. She added to her theory many other factors such as race, gender, age, environment, and social status. Now the theory claims that all of these things, in addition to whether one is in the majority of the opinion on a subject, will all matter whether a person speaks out.

Fear Of Isolation & Conformity

Since Pressure to conform is a major portion of Noelle-Neumann's foundation for her arguments, Solomon Asch (1995) also did a study where he put one subject in the midst of seen confederates and asked each person to determine the shortest of three lines. Arch had seven confederates purposively select an incorrect line, and then examined the subject's response in light of the clearly wrong response of the confederates. He found that one-fourth of the subjects were completely independent of any majority pressure. These people, who Noelle-Neumann would label “hardcores”, selected the correct lines despite pressure to conform and select the incorrect line. On the other hand, no subjects conformed on every trial the situation did not elicit total conformity from subjects. He found that in manipulating some independent variables, pressure to agree is highly specific. There is no single “type” of individual who agrees, nor does public conformity imply inner acceptance of judgment or opinion. In analyzing different groups of subjects, Asch found that although very few yielded nearly completely to majority influence, they didn't think they had yielded at all. These people perceived the majority estimates as correct and didn't feel as though they themselves had conformed. Most of the subjects, who agreed, however lacked the confidence in their estimates and felt a tendency to go along with the majority when in doubt. Others who confirmed knew they were right but did not want to appear different from the majority.

In a follow-up experiment, Asch found that if the subject had some support from some in the group, conformity to majority influence inclined substantially. Noelle-Neumann based her spiral of silence theory notion on face-to-face, small group situations that was described by Locke (1961), Allport (1937) and Asch (1951). In each of the cases the individual is isolated a midst a hostile majority and in direct contact with his antagonists.

Although most of the test that were done in the past did prove the theory, there were some circumstances that were overlooked, as to the ability to apply to universal situations. For example, different ages, gender and education were left out and the very fact that the questions that were asked were about irrelevant things, raises the questions how people will respond when the questions and answers are more important.

The Powerful Role Of The Mass Media

Noelle-Newman believed that the media accelerates the muting of the minority in the spiral of silence. I completely agree with this. The media whether it is news, print, or electronic is the biggest influence in our lives today. An example could be the scandals of Bill Clinton who went through two scandals and yet his popularity still rose. This is what the media has shown us and it makes people think and eventually start to second guess their opinions. According to Noelle-Newman the media not only tell us what to think about, but show us what everyone else is thinking.

Benefits Of Spiral Of Silence

Defines why people are not willing to express their opinion if they are in the minority.

Explains why people prefer to withhold their true feeling. Rather than take the risk of being isolated.

Is a good model in relating media effects to public opinion?

Processes of public opinion hold the society together. Spiral of silence solves conflicts that can threat the society, if they remain unsolved.

Disadvantages Of Spiral Of Silence

The rear phenomenon of a ‘double climate of opinion' can be observed when the opinions provided by the mass media are not consistent with the opinions prevalent among most people outside the mass media.

Are we really good at assessing public opinion?

Are we really good at assessing if we are in the majority or minority?

How can we determine whether someone truly believes that he is in the majority or not?

How we can determine whether someone truly believes that he is in the majority or not?

Theory does not do justice to the pervasive impact of committed deviants on public opinion.

Conclusion

In conclusion I strongly believe that this theory has a lot to offer to our current situation. After closely validating and conducting my research I have found that most of the theorist that studied this theory even though they were looking at it in different views, they all came to the same conclusion. There are a lot of topics that people are afraid to speak up on and no matter what, we will continue to fear isolation if we think that our views are of minority. It is human nature and our human instincts that lead us to do of think in such a way. We do not really want to be unpopular or make a fool of ourselves so we tent to hold back our views to fit in no matter what. As explained there are however some people “hard cores”, who will stand up for what they think is right and will continue to strive on to have their voice or view heard. There are a lot of examples of these people that tare know to our society today, freedom fighters,

Overall this theory is very useful. I think it's so useful mainly because it was updated by Noelle-Newman in 1991. Other than the few obvious exceptions, the concepts of this theory seem to hold true. I think this is a very useful Humanistic Theory.

Critique Of The Theory

Judging on the views that were expressed earlier on, most of the points that were raised seem to be inter-related and agreed upon by the theorists. After collecting and reviewing the research and theory of my sources, I personally agree with the overall views and opinions that were raised and think that it does apply to oursociety today where a lot of issues are raised and how individuals react to the issues. Most of us do fear isolation and so thought we may know that our views or opinion are right, if we think that the majority have chosen something else, we will keep that opinion to ourselves and choose to support the majority opinion. There are some people amongst us who will fight for what they believe and will continually raise their views until they are heard, though it may be uncommon it is possible for some individuals to fight on and continue to raise their views. These individuals known as “hardcores” could be freedom fighters or people who believe in their views. They will not conform or be easily persuaded to change their views and so it is possible that the spiral of silence may not apply to them.

Our willingness to speak out can occur at many levels. There is face-to-face conversation, wearing t-shirt or a bumper sticker supporting a view or idea. We could even write a letter to the editor or speaking to the media. The Spiral of silence theory states that people are less likely to speak out on their viewpoint on one side of an issue that appears to lose ground in a debate. This is believed to cause more people to fall silent as they perceive the tide of opinion to be turning against them making the spiralling of silence even worst. Those who are undecided on an issue will be more likely to side with the position that is speaking out or the side that is winning. Not everyone bows down to the fear of being disliked. There are some people who support their position based on their values and beliefs rather than based on negotiable facts and traits about an issue and so these people any never be silenced. The spiral of silence explains how we perceive public opinion and what impacts those perceptions make on our behaviour. Because the theory is so complex, it has been difficulty to effectively test this theory scientifically. Many scholars' believes they have found support for at least some components of the theory. However it is still not clear on what characteristics of television affects our perception.

As stated before that most test done in the past did prove the theory to be correct, there were some circumstances that were overlooked, as to the ability to apply to universal situations. There were a lot of variables that were overlooked and so were the questions that were asked by the researcher that didn't apply to important situations which in today's world would be an important factor since there are lot of upcoming issues raised. Overall, I view the tests as a good start, but hardly a complete test of the spiral of silence theory. Elizabeth's Neumann however revised her theory to accommodate the other findings and added other factors which improved the theory. Everyone has been in a position where their opinion has been in the minority. How doyou react? Do we cave into the pressure of spiral of silence? Or are we “hardcores” who stand our ground no matter what?

Glossary

Assert: state a fact or belief confidently and forcefully

Alternative: one or more thing available as another possibility

Articulate: fluent and clear in speech

Antagonists: one who opposes and contends against another; an adversary.

Critique: a detailed analysis and assessment

Contentions: heated disagreement

Confederates: joined by an agreement or treaty

Conform: comply with rules, standards, or laws

Deviants: Describes actions or behaviours that violate cultural norms including formally: enacted rules

Disparate: Containing or made up of fundamentally different and often incongruous elements

Dominance: Power and influence over others

Elicit: to evoke or draw out

Inoculation: another term for vaccinate

Interpersonal: relating to relationships or communication between people

Innovative: Refers to a new way of doing something

Isolation: The complete separation from others of a person suffering from contagious or infectious disease

Minority: A minority is a sociological group that does not constitute a politically dominant voting majority of the total population of a given society.

Meta theoretical: Is a theory whose subject matter is some other theory. In other words it is a theory about a theory.

Phenomenon: Refers to an extraordinary event, or something that is impressive or extraordinary

PhD: Doctor of Philosophy which is a level of achieved in Universities around the world.

Prevailing: Most frequent or common; predominant.

Psychological: affecting, or arising in the mind; related to the mental and emotional state of a person

Postulates: To claim or assume the existence or truth of something especially as a basis for reasoning or arguing

Popularity: Is the quality of being well-liked or famous.

Ridicule: Speech or action intended to cause contemptuous laughter at a person or thing

Thesis: a statement or theory that is put forward as premise to be maintained

Yielded: To give over possession of, as in deference or defeat; surrender.

本文编号：44628