关于网上图书市场的研究分析

消费者经常使用电子商务在网上购物，消费者和销售人员之间的社会互动标准大多数在电子商务环境上。然而，实体店相比，电子商务可以被看作是一种高度客观性或不存在的关系。先前的研究已经表明，只有电子商务能增加消费者的信任度，，从而增加他们的购买意识;然而，这些研究集中在流行的电子商务网站和支持想进入电子商务市场的新公司。现有研究表明造成对建立消费者之间信任的各种影响因素；然而，这项研究将特别关注社会存在的影响、新电子商务形成、对网上书店环境的初始信任度。来自西开普州开普敦大学的学生将会接受问卷调查，以确定初始信任度可以建立一个网站，前提是他们之前没有交流过。此项研究包括描述性研究，用于帮助在电子商务环境中的社会存在关系和信托机构之间能够进一步了解对方。

关键词：社会存在、初始信任、感知风险、电子忠诚度、网上书店

本研究局限于研究电子商务中关于社会存在对消费者信任度的影响(电子商务)。现有研究表明，信任在电子商务网站中是增加网上消费者购买意识的一个关键因素，在有信任的基础上，随之销售量会上升{62 Koufaris,M.2002;49 Gefen,D.2000,51 Gefen,D.2003}。然而，由于缺乏直接的人机交互，在网上很难建立网上信任度，这是供应商和消费者之间建立信任度过程中固有的一部分{52 Gefen,D。2004}.2004}。许多消费者不网上购物的一个主要原因是因为网络公司缺乏信任，这意味着信任成为电子商务发展的最大障碍之一。{61 Koufaris,M.2004;86 Wang,h . 2004}。实现社会存在是与该问题及其相关的，因为社会存在的实现可能会减少消费者对网上购物缺乏信任的现象产生，通过把人类元素添加到电子商务网站，从而增加消费者的信任和购买意识。{80 Hassanein,k . 2007;88 Jarvenpaa,S.L. 1999}。这种社会存在和网上信任之间的关系，正是本研究将重点关注的问题。

Electronic commerce (E-commerce) is regularly used by consumers to make purchases online. The levels of social interaction between consumers and sales staff within the setting of most E-commerce, however, can be seen as a highly impersonal or non-existent relationship in comparison to a physical store environment. Previous studies have indicated that social presence in e-commerce increases consumers trust and hence increase their intention to purchase; however, these studies focus on popular e-commerce websites and bear little advice for new companies wanting to enter the market of E-commerce. Existing research has shown various factors which contribute towards building trust among consumers; however, this study will focus specifically on the effects of social presence on the formation of initial trust in a new e-commerce website in an Online Book Store environment. Students from the University of Cape Town, in the Western Cape, will be surveyed using a questionnaire in order to determine how initial trust can be built in a website, with which they have had no prior interactions with. The research will consist of a descriptive study and will be used in order to help build a greater understanding of the relationship between social presence and trust formation in an e-commerce environment.

Key Words:Social Presence, Initial Trust, Perceived Risk, E-Loyalty, Online Book Store

Limited research exists regarding the effects of social presence on consumer trust in electronic commerce (e-commerce). Existing research has shown that trust in an e-commerce website is a key determinant in increasing an online consumer’s intent to purchase from that website, which in turn leads to increased sales {{62 Koufaris,M. 2002; 49 Gefen,D. 2000; 51 Gefen,D. 2003}}. However, online trust is difficult to build due to the lack of direct human interaction online, which is an inherent part of trust building process between vendor and consumer {{52 Gefen,D. 2004}}. Lack of trust in online companies is a primary reason why many consumers do not shop online, meaning that trust creates one of the biggest obstacles to the growth of e-commerce. {{61 Koufaris,M. 2004; 86 Wang, H. 1998}}. The implementation of social presence is particularly relevant to this problem, as its implementation could potentially reduce the lack of consumer trust online by adding human elements to an e-commerce website, and consequently increase consumer trust and intention to purchase. {{80 Hassanein, K. 2007; 88 Jarvenpaa, S.L. 1999}}. It is this relationship between social presence and online trust which this study will focus on.

Previous research has examined the effect of social presence on online consumer trust {{52 Gefen,D. 2004; 44 Cyr,D. 2007; 80 Hassanein, K. 2007}}, with {{52 Gefen,D. 2004}} finding that perceived social presence increases the trust an online consumer has of a website. However the majority of the above mentioned research focused on popular, existing e-commerce sites (such as Amazon.com), which we feel provides little value to completely new companies wanting to enter the market. We propose to fill this gap in the literature by narrowing the focus of the subject specifically to initial trust of an e-commerce website, a specific aspect of trust which has been investigated by {{91 McKnight, D.H. 1998; 61 Koufaris,M. 2004; 99 McKnight, D.H. 2004}}. In order to this we will use create our own, non-real e-commerce to ensure that there is no existing customer interactions with the website {{107 Suh, J.C. 2006}}. This will allow the study to focus specifically on social presence’s impact formation of initial trust online.

{{56 Harris,L.C. 2004}} also suggests that different e-commerce product categories have significantly different effects the formation of trust online; therefore we will focus our research on a single market (the online book market).

The study will aim to answer the following research question: What is the impact of social presence on the formation of initial trust of a website in an e-commerce environment? The study has one objective:

To determine the effect of social presence on a consumer’s initial trust of an e-commerce website.

The study aims to provide a better understanding of the role of social presence in building initial trust amongst e-commerce consumers, and assess the potential of social presence as a trust building tool.

This paper contains four parts. The first is a literature review which discusses the background of the online book market, social presence, initial online trust, perceived risk, customer loyalty and other variables. This is followed by the research question and objectives, description of methodology and project timeline respectively.

1文献综述— LITERATURE REVIEW

1.1 网上书店市场—The online book market

The online book market has been traditionally dominated by international book retailers such as Barnes and Nobel and Amazon.com {{109 Mellahi, K. 2000}}. The internet provides a platform of greater efficiency and reach for these retailers compared to physical stores, although this consequently has led to the need for an increased understanding of marketing these products to online consumers, particularly regarding the consumers trust of e-commerce {{110 Latcovich, S. 2001; 71 Wang,F. 2008; 66 Ribbink,D. 2004}}.

This market is also relevant in the South African context, with physical bookstores such as Atlas and Juta having ventured into an online market for book retailing to compete with local companies such as Kalahari.net, as well as international competitors in the above mentioned Barnes and Nobel and Amazon.com {{109 Mellahi, K. 2000; 104 Otter, A. 2011}}. Research indicates that Amazon.com falls within the highest 1% of trusted brands in the world and is rated the most trusted brand in the United States of America, since then {{106 Millward Brown 2010; 105 Millward Brown 2011}}. However, in a South African context Amazon.com has not been able to take hold of the South African market, particularly due to the firms’ lack of trust and logistical costs within the country {{104 Otter, A.}}. This offers the opportunity for market share for local retailers such as Juta and Atlas and new entrants into the online book market, who need to gain the local consumer’s trust which as {{104 Otter, A.}} mentions, Amazon.com has failed to do.

1.2 电子商务中的社会存在—Social presence in e-commerce

Social presence refers to the “existence of a personal, social and sensitive human element in a medium” {{78 Short, J. 1976}}. Social presence is therefore particularly relevant to e-commerce due to the restriction of direct human interaction between the vendor and consumer in an online environment, compared to that of offline shopping {{44 Cyr,D. 2007}}.

Previous research by {{44 Cyr,D. 2007}} and {{53 Gefen,D. 2003}} has shown that perceived social presence has positive relationship with a consumer’s trust of an online vendor, a relationship which {{52 Gefen,D. 2004}} view as essential in the e-commerce environment.

For the purposes of this study, we will use {{81 Qiu, L. 2005}} definition of social presence as any tool which enables interactions between online consumers and online customer service representatives. However, it must be noted that there are a wide variety of social presence tools which still present an element of human interaction, but do not necessarily directly relate to customer service {{79 Swanson, E.B. 1987; 80 Hassanein, K. 2007}}.

There are a wide range of tools which enable to implementation of social presence into a standard website. These range from socially rich text and descriptions which evoke positive emotions {{80 Hassanein, K. 2007}} to photographs, names and contact details of customer service agents {{83 Steinbruck, U. 2002}} to live customer support through instant messaging {{81 Qiu, L. 2005}} to face-to-face video chat with online customer service representatives {{79 Swanson, E.B. 1987; 81 Qiu, L. 2005}}.

1.3 电子商务中的初始信任—Initial trust in e-commerce

{{97 Kini, A. 1998}} defines trust in e-commerce as an online consumer’s belief in the competence, reliability and security of the e-commerce system, under the conditions of risk which exist in the online environment. It must be noted that although this is a popular definition of the term, there is disagreement about the exact components of the construct {{95 Lee, M.K.O. 2001; 96 McKnight, D.H. 2003; 72 Wang,Y.D. 2005; 42 Corritore,C.L. 2005}}.

Trust in e-commerce is unique because trust is typically built through direct human interactions {{52 Gefen,D. 2004}}. Trust is also well recognized for its importance in e-commerce, as it has been proven to be significant factor in increasing an online consumer’s intent to purchase from a specific e-commerce website {{62 Koufaris,M. 2002; 50 Gefen,D. 2003; 88 Jarvenpaa, S.L. 1999; 49 Gefen,D. 2000}}.

{{101 Rousseau, D.M. 1998}} states that trust consists of 3 distinct stages – the exploratory, building and disbandment stages. The concept of initial trust relates to the exploratory and building phase of trust stage of trust, when the parties involved first meet or interact and the first trust is formed. {{91 McKnight, D.H. 1998; 101 Rousseau, D.M. 1998}}. In the context of our study initial trust relates to the first time that a consumer comes across a specific e-commerce website {{62 Koufaris,M. 2002; 91 McKnight, D.H. 1998}}, which {{94 Kim, K.K. 2004}} states is foundation of a consumer’s decision to adopt an online service.

While there has been extensive research into the effect of trust in the e-commerce environment [{{43 Cyr,D. 2008; 42 Corritore,C.L. 2005; 55 Ha,H.Y. 2004; 41 Corbitt,B.J. 2003}}, there has been limited research focusing specifically on initial trust {{91 McKnight, D.H. 1998; 94 Kim, K.K. 2004; 99 McKnight, D.H. 2004}}.

{{91 McKnight, D.H. 1998}} proposes a model of initial trust where a consumer, having no direct experience with the organization bases their initial trust the perceived reputation of the organization, their general willingness to trust others (propensity to trust) and the presence of guarantees about the platform, such as previous customer’s testimonials. However this model is designed for general organizational relationships and is not specific for e-commerce {{91 McKnight, D.H. 1998}}.

{{94 Kim, K.K. 2004}} offers a similar research which indicates consumer’s propensity to trust and presence of guarantees of the platform, particularly its safety, are significant in predicating a consumer’s initial trust of e-commerce. However this model is based on the internet banking industry, which is an e-service and bears a much higher perceived risk than e-commerce consumer products, such as the online book market used in this study {{103 Pikkarainen, T. 2004; 94 Kim, K.K. 2004}}. {{56 Harris,L.C. 2004}} confirms this weakness that the differing natures and perceived risks of online product categories significantly affect the formation of trust.

Therefore our study will concentrate on the work of {{99 McKnight, D.H. 2004}}, who characterize initial trust formation as a two stage process. The introductory phase again consist of factors which influence the formation of trust prior to interaction with the website, including second-hand information about the website, the consumer’s propensity to trust and their trust based on past experiences of the overall e-commerce environment. The exploratory phase then involves the consumer’s perception of site quality, usability and attractiveness during their first interaction with the website. {{99 McKnight, D.H. 2004}}

1.4 电子商务中的感知风险—Perceived risk in e-commerce

Past research into the role of perceived risk in the commerce environment {{73 Bauer, R.A. 1960; 74 Cunningham, S.M. 1967; 75 Peter, J.P. 1976; 76 Kaplan, L.B. 1974}} was pioneered by {{73 Bauer, R.A. 1960}}, who used perceived risk to help explain risk aversion behaviour, including pre-purchase decisions.

{{74 Cunningham, S.M. 1967}} describes that risk can be decomposed into both the degree of uncertainty that a consumer may hold, or a fear of consequences that the consumer may hold. {{76 Kaplan, L.B. 1974}} goes on to expand this, describing that the consumer's perceived risk of purchasing a product can be described as an aggregate impact of six fears. These include the prospect of financial loss, low quality or performance of the actual purchased product, the social risk that purchasing the product carries (as judged by family and friends), a psychological impact of self and product image, safety risks and lastly a possible convenience loss in the event of the product becoming damaged and needing to be replaced by repeating the purchase {{76 Kaplan, L.B. 1974}}.

The basis of this research has carried on into the field of e-commerce, where uncertainty relating to product quality, fear of loss and worries about e-commerce stores engaging in opportunistic behaviour have led online consumer to develop increased pre-purchasing uncertainty due to higher perceived risk {{77 Naiyi, YE 2004}}. However, perceived risk experienced by online consumers differs significantly amongst different product categories {{48 Gefen,D. 2002}}. This is exemplified by {{56 Harris,L.C. 2004}}, whose empirical findings have found that the perceived riskiness of an online bookstore was found to be very low compared to that of online flight bookings.

Perceived risk can therefore be seen as a factor that contributes significantly to the formation of trust in an e-commerce website, and consequently its effects must be considered on the formation of initial trust.

1.5可能影响初始信任的其他变量因素— Other variables which may influence initial trust

Apart from perceived risk, there are several other variables which may also have an effect on the formation of initial trust between a consumer and a website in an e-commerce website.

If these factors do indeed have an effect on initial trust formation, we will need to be nullified or accounted for the purpose of our study in order to test the specific relationship between social presence and initial trust

1.5.1现有客户的电子商务忠诚度— Existing customer e-loyalty

Electronic loyalty (e-loyalty) is defined an online consumers favourable attitude towards an e-commerce website that results in repeated purchasing actions. {{69 Srinivasan,S.S. 2002; 56 Harris,L.C. 2004}}

Previous research has shown that the e-loyalty is affected by the trust an online consumer has in an e-commerce website, which is built through past experiences and indirect interactions with the website or brand {{56 Harris,L.C. 2004; 66 Ribbink,D. 2004; 107 Suh, J.C. 2006}}. However, {{66 Ribbink,D. 2004}} points out that while this relationship between trust and e-loyalty is significant, it is not as strong as initially expected.

Since existing customer e-loyalty implies previous interactions and the existence of trust between a consumer and an e-commerce website, this study will have to ensure that existing customer loylaty is nullified when testing initial trust. Indeed {{52 Gefen,D. 2004}} mention in the limitations of their research that they failed to account for existing customer loyalty when testing the relationship between social presence and trust – a fact which would be significant considering they used popular, existing e-commerce websites such as Amazon.com.

1.5.2文化—Culture

{{43 Cyr,D. 2008}} describes that the level of appreciation which consumers from different cultures (specifically the Canadian, German and Chinese cultures) had for the e-store’s navigation design, visual design and information design do not differ significantly. The rate at which trust and satisfaction are translated into e-loyalty does not differ significantly with respect to the region that the online consumer is from {{43 Cyr,D. 2008; 48 Gefen,D. 2002}}.

While culture might not have a significant impact on the formation of trust in e-commerce, {{41 Corbitt,B.J. 2003; 52 Gefen,D. 2004}} do point out that technology adept users typically form a higher level of trust than those without experience with technology.

1.5.3 性别—Gender

{{60 Kolsaker,A. 2002}} describe that males and female consumers do not differ significantly during online purchases in terms of trustof payment details, feeling of uncertainty towards e-commerce and confidentiality and the integrity of refunds. The findings concluded that past experiences of the consumer had a more significant impact than on these actions than their specific gender {{60 Kolsaker,A. 2002}}.

2研究的问题— RESEARCH QUESTION

The primary research question of this study is:

What is the impact of social presence on the formation of initial trust of a website in an e-commerce environment?

3研究的目的— OBJECTIVE OF THE RESEARCH

The primary objective of the study will be:

To determine the effect of social presence on a consumer’s initial trust of an e-commerce website.

4方法论—METHODOLOGY

The study is will be based on a single cross-sectional conclusive research design of descriptive Research. The method will be employed due to the need to test specific hypotheses in a pre-planned market, on the target population. Tests will thus be created, involving the manipulation of Social Presence in order to measures the effects on the initial trust of a consumer.

4.1 目标人群和抽样框架—The target population and sampling frame

The population for this study will consist of South African tertiary education students, studying at the University of Cape Town, in the Western Cape. The sampling frame will consist of a list of full-time students, from The University of Cape Town. This sampling frame will also be provided by The University of Cape Town. The reason for this choice is due the practicality of being able to find a target population at for a low cost.

4.2抽样技术和样本大小—The sampling technique and sample size

As the sample framework is being provided by The University of Cape Town, the sampling without replacement technique will be used. The sampling technique that will most likely be used will be that of convenience sampling. The sample size chosen for this study will be in the region of 100 to 150 participants.

4.3 测量和程序扩展—Measurement and scaling procedure

The hypotheses will be tested by participants completing a questionnaire, with most of the questions being based around a likert-type scale. The questionnaires will consist of three main sections that will be aimed at determining:

1. Their level of Perceived Risk of purchasing a good

2. The degree of Initial Trust to which they associate the website

3. Their Loyalty towards the website

Overall, a five or seven point likert scale will be used as the overall affects are more desirable than that of other likert scales {{85 Dawes, J. 2008}}.

A seven point likert scale will be used in determining how consumers perceive their risk in purchasing from the websites, where 1 will be associated with “strongly agree” and 7 with ”strongly disagree”{{90 Gliem, J.A. 2003; 89 McCall, C.H. 2001}}. The scale and titles of extremities will be the same for the remaining two sections, where respondents will be asked questions involving their Perceived Trusting of a specific website used and then the respondents will be required to estimate their Loyalty to the specific website, by means answering questions in the form of the same likert scale as before.

Questionnaires will be affixed to the websites and will thus be classed as Computer-assisted personal interviewing. The data will be uploaded and stored on an online database. The data will then be imported into an appropriate statistical testing and modelling program, such as Statistica where the data will be checked for errors. Afterwards, the data will be coded and in doing so, the data will be ready, to begin a data analysis. With use of the statistic package, numerous statistical techniques will then be employed in order to analyse the data, test the reliability/validity of the data and then to finally build and test appropriate models relating to the data.