济南市热浪对心理健康的影响及其相关因素研究

发布时间：2018-05-18 17:39

本文选题：热浪 + 心理疾病　；参考：《山东大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：[研究背景] 近百年来,地球气候主要经历以全球变暖为主要特征的显著变化,全球气候变暖是21世纪人类面临的最大的健康威胁。在过去的几十年,地球表面温度以超乎我们想象的速度大幅度上升,预计到2100年,地球表面温度将上升1.4-5.8℃(政府间气候变化专门委员会,Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC)。随着全球变暖的加剧,全球范围内的酷热日益频繁,高温热浪已成为目前世界范围内频繁发生的极端灾害天气事件,且它的发生频率、强度及持续时间都在不断增加。热浪主要是因为空气温度高,且这样的高温持续时间较长,引起人、动物、植物不能适应的一种天气过程。极端高温会通过一系列直接或间接途径给人类健康造成各种不利影响,所以目前高温热浪事件及其健康问题已成为国际上气候与健康领域的热点问题。国外已有研究表明,热浪期间心理疾病的发病率和患病率是显著上升的。2007年,IPCC第四次评估报告也指出,气候变化可能会对人类身体健康带来不利影响,并明确表示对心理健康的影响将会是其中很重要的一个方面,不容忽视。目前,国内外对热浪已经开展了诸多研究,但专门针对热浪对心理健康影响的研究还相对较少。本文在全球气候变化的大背景和总结国内外相关研究的基础上,主要采用病例交叉研究和病例对照研究的方法,对热浪对心理健康的影响、影响其效应的相关因素及预防和保护措施进行了初步探讨与分析,旨在为识别高危人群,开展相关的高温热浪的预报预测工作,预防或减少热浪对心理健康的危害提供科学参考。 [研究目的] 探讨2010年济南市夏天各次热浪事件对心理疾病日就诊人次的影响、特征及其与心理疾病患病率发生改变有关的影响因素,并初步探讨预防与保护措施,为政府和民众采取有效措施避免或减轻热浪对心理健康的影响提供科学的决策依据。 [研究方法] 本研究以济南市居民为研究对象,2010年6月1日-8月31日的逐日气象资料由中国气象数据共享服务网提供,心理疾病门诊和住院病例的相关资料取自山东省精神卫生中心。本研究主要采用两种研究方法：即病例交叉研究和病例对照研究。前者主要采用1：1单向回顾性对照设计和时间分层对照设计来分析研究期间济南市发生的各次热浪事件对济南市居民心理疾病日就诊人次的影响及其特征；后者主要用来分析热浪时期与心理疾病患病率发生改变有关的影响因素。 [结果] 研究期间共发生4次热浪,其中热浪期心理疾病就诊人为3573人次,非热浪期心理疾病就诊人次为15996人次。4次热浪对每日心理疾病就诊人次影响的1：1单向对照设计和时间分层对照设计的OR值及其95%C1分别为2.224(1.980～2.498)和2.439(2.192～2.713),2.940(2.444～3.536)和2.940(2.575～3.358),3.165(2.657～3.771)和3.436(3.013～3.918),3.019(2.476～3.681)和3.039(2.536～3.642)；且本研究显示,热浪对心理疾病日就诊人次的影响是存在滞后效应的,4次热浪的最佳滞后期分别为3天,2天,3天,2天；热浪时期与心理疾病患病率发生改变有关的影响因素主要包括：年龄(≤65岁组/65岁组)、家庭住址(城市/郊区或农村)、职业(农民/非农民)及婚姻状况(离异/非离异)。即年龄在65岁以上的老年人、居住在城市地区的居民和离异人群在热浪期间发生心理疾病的危险性大大增加；农民相对于其它职业来说,在热浪期间更容易受到高温热浪的影响。 [结论与建议] 2010年济南市的4次热浪事件均使当地居民心理疾病的日就诊人次明显增加,且存在滞后效应。年龄、职业、家庭住址及婚姻状况可能是热浪时期与心理疾病患病率发生改变有关的影响因素。
[Abstract]:[research background]
In the last hundred years, the earth's climate has undergone major changes with the main features of global warming. Global warming is the biggest health threat to humans in the twenty-first Century. In the past few decades, the earth's surface temperature has risen dramatically over the speed of our imagination. The earth surface temperature is expected to rise by 1.4-5.8 C by 2100 (Intergovernmental). The Special Committee on climate change, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC). As the global warming increases, the global heat is becoming more and more frequent. High temperature heat waves have become the most frequent extreme disaster weather events around the world, and the frequency, intensity and duration of its occurrence are increasing. Because of the high temperature of the air and the long duration of this high temperature, it causes a weather process that is unsuitable for people, animals and plants. Extreme heat will cause various adverse effects on human health through a series of direct or indirect ways, so the current heat wave events and their health problems have become the international climate and health field. Foreign studies have shown that the incidence and prevalence of psychological diseases during the heat wave are significantly increased in.2007 years, and the IPCC fourth assessment report also points out that climate change may have adverse effects on human health, and that the impact on mental health will be an important aspect of it. At present, many studies have been carried out on heat waves at home and abroad, but the research on the effects of heat waves on mental health is relatively small. Based on the background of global climate change and the related research at home and abroad, this paper mainly adopts the method of case cross study and case control study, and the psychological health of the heat waves. The related factors affecting the effect and the prevention and protection measures were preliminarily discussed and analyzed in order to provide a scientific reference for the identification of high risk population, the prediction and prediction of high temperature heat waves, and the prevention or reduction of the harm of heat waves to mental health.
[research purposes]
The effects of the summer heat waves in Ji'nan in the summer of 2010 on the visits of psychological disease day visits, characteristics and factors related to the changes in the prevalence of psychological diseases were discussed, and the preventive and protective measures were preliminarily discussed to provide a scientific decision for the government and the public to take effective measures to avoid or reduce the impact of heat waves on mental health. According to it.
[research methods]
In this study, Ji'nan residents were taken as the research object. The daily meteorological data of 31 -8 month in June 1, 2010 were provided by the China Meteorological data sharing service network. The related data of psychological disease outpatient and hospitalized cases were taken from the mental health center of Shandong province.
Two methods are used in this study, namely, case cross study and case control study. The former mainly uses 1:1 one-way retrospective control design and time stratified control design to analyze the influence and characteristics of each heat wave event in Ji'nan on the daily visits of Ji'nan residents' psychological diseases during the study. It should be used to analyze the factors related to the change of the prevalence of mental illness during the heat wave period.
[results]
During the period of the study, there were 4 times of heat wave, of which 3573 people were diagnosed with mental illness during the heat wave period, and 15996 times in non hot wave period, 15996 times of.4 heat wave, the OR value of 1:1 one-way control design and time stratified control design and 95% C1 were 2.224 (1.980 to 2.498) and 2.439 (2.192), respectively. 2.713), 2.940 (2.444 to 3.536) and 2.940 (2.575 to 3.358), 3.165 (2.657 to 3.771) and 3.436 (3.013 ~ 3.918).
The factors associated with the changes in the prevalence of mental illness include age (group /65 years younger than 65 years old), home address (city / suburb or rural), occupation (farmer / non farmer) and marital status (divorced / non divorced). That is, aged people over 65 years old, residents living in urban areas and divorced people in heat waves During the period, the risk of mental illness increased significantly. Compared with other occupations, farmers were more likely to be affected by high temperature heat waves during the heat wave.
[conclusions and recommendations]
In 2010, the 4 heat wave events in Ji'nan all increased the daily visits of local residents with mental illness, and there was a lag effect. Age, occupation, home address and marital status may be the factors associated with the change in the prevalence of mental illness during the heat wave period.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：R395

【参考文献】