南京市呼吸系统疾病死亡人数与气象因子的关系

发布时间：2018-03-24 05:20

本文选题：呼吸系统疾病　切入点：死亡人数　出处：《兰州大学学报(自然科学版)》2015年01期

【摘要】：利用2005年1月1日-2008年12月31日南京市逐日呼吸系统疾病死亡人数资料和同期气象资料,研究了气象要素变化对呼吸系统疾病死亡人数的影响.结果表明:南京市呼吸系统疾病死亡人数冬季最高,其次是春季,秋季和夏季较少;南京市逐日呼吸系统疾病死亡人数对气象要素变化的响应存在滞后性,春季滞后6-7 d,夏秋季滞后8-10 d,冬季滞后2-5 d;对风寒指数响应的滞后响应时间,春季7-8 d,夏季和秋季相关弱,冬季2-3 d;前期的空气污染和后期的剧烈降温叠加,可能是南京冬季呼吸系统疾病患者死亡的重要诱因;春季随着气温的回升,空气污染程度减轻,患者对气温变化的耐受性也延长了,但响应敏感性比冬季增强了;通过逐步回归,建立了冬季和春季南京呼吸系统疾病的死亡人数预报方程.
[Abstract]:From January 2005 to December 31, 2008, the daily death toll of respiratory diseases in Nanjing and the meteorological data for the same period were used. The effects of changes of meteorological factors on the number of deaths from respiratory diseases in Nanjing were studied. The results showed that the death rate of respiratory diseases in Nanjing was the highest in winter, followed by spring, autumn and summer. The response of the daily death toll of respiratory diseases in Nanjing to the change of meteorological elements was delayed by 6-7 days in spring, 8-10 days in summer and autumn, 2-5 days in winter, and delayed response time to wind-cold index. From 7 to 8 days in spring, the correlation between summer and autumn was weak, and the winter was 2-3 days. The air pollution in the early stage and the severe cooling in the later period might be the important inducement for the death of the patients with respiratory diseases in winter in Nanjing, and the degree of air pollution decreased with the rise of the temperature in spring. The patient's tolerance to temperature change was also prolonged, but the sensitivity of response was higher than that in winter, and by stepwise regression, the prediction equation of death toll of respiratory diseases in Nanjing in winter and spring was established.
【作者单位】：兰州大学大气科学学院气象环境与人体健康研究中心;江苏省疾病预防控制中心研究所;江苏省气候中心;
【基金】：公益性行业(气象)科研专项项目(GYHY201106034) 国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAJ18B08) 国家人口与健康科学数据共享平台建设项目(2005PKA32400) 国家自然科学基金项目(41075103) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(LZUJBKY-2013-M03)
【分类号】：R56

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