重庆市2011至2014年肺结核发病率与人均GDP水平的时空分析

发布时间：2018-04-30 07:41

本文选题：肺结核 + 空间加权回归　；参考：《重庆医科大学学报》2017年10期

【摘要】：目的:探索重庆市38个区县肺结核发病率与社会经济发展水平在空间差异下的关系。方法:利用重庆市2011至2014年连续四年的肺结核发病与人均国内生产总值数据,用Spearman秩相关与地理加权回归(geographically weighted regression,GWR)分析当地区域肺结核发病率与社会经济发展水平的关系。结果:重庆市肺结核高发多集中在东北与东南部地区(Moran’s I指数分别为0.52、0.49、0.50、0.39,P=0.000)。Spearman秩相关分析发现肺结核发病率与人均国内生产总值负相关(r分别为-0.612、-0.611、-0.631、-0.582,P=0.000)。地理加权回归系数变动范围为-4.44~3.20,东北部与东南部影响较大,全市92%的区县肺结核发病率与人均GDP呈负相关。结论:重庆市不同地区经济发展对肺结核发病的影响有差异,有必要制定区域措施防控当地肺结核发病。
[Abstract]:Objective: to explore the relationship between the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis and the level of social and economic development in 38 counties of Chongqing. Methods: based on the data of tuberculosis incidence and GDP per capita in Chongqing from 2011 to 2014, the relationship between the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis and the level of social and economic development was analyzed by using Spearman rank correlation and geographical weighted regression analysis. Results: the high incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in the northeast and southeast of Chongqing was mainly concentrated in the northeast and southeast of China. The index of Morantis I was 0.52 ~ 0.49 / 0.50 ~ 0.39 ~ 0.000 ~ 0.000 ~ 0.000 ~ (th). The results showed that the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis was negatively correlated with the per capita GDP (r = -0.612) -0.611 ~ (-1) -0.631- 0.582P _ (0.000), respectively. The variation range of geographical weighted regression coefficient was -4.440.3.20. The influence of northeast and southeast was great. The incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis was negatively correlated with GDP per capita in 92% of districts and counties in the whole city. Conclusion: the influence of economic development on the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis is different in different areas of Chongqing, so it is necessary to make regional measures to prevent and control the incidence of tuberculosis in local areas.
【作者单位】：重庆医科大学公共卫生与管理学院卫生统计与信息管理教研室国民健康社会风险预警协同创新中心;重庆市卫生信息中心;成都市第三人民医院质量控制与评价部;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(编号:81373103) 重庆市医学科研计划资助项目(编号:20132157)
【分类号】：R521

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