2010~2030年中国老年期痴呆的预测

发布时间：2018-03-12 15:49

本文选题：老年期痴呆　切入点：患病人数　出处：《中国老年学杂志》2015年13期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：目的预测中国2010~2030年老年期痴呆患病情况。方法检索1990~2013年相关数据库及其他网络资源的相关资料,对28个研究应用Meta Analyst Beta3.13软件对其进行Meta分析,得出患病率。利用第六次人口普查数据预测2015年、2020年、2025年和2030年的各年龄段人数,继而得出相应患病人数。结果 2030年老年期痴呆人数将达1 645.6万人,男687.1万人,女958.5万人。年龄组60~64岁、65~69岁、70~74岁、75~79岁、80~84岁、≥85岁年龄组患病人数分别为105.4万、138.7万、160.7万、309.6万、324.7万、606.5万。结论如果没有相应的预防措施,中国老年期痴呆患病人数在未来20年里将会大幅增长。2030年老年期痴呆患病人数为2010年的2.8倍。
[Abstract]:Objective to predict the prevalence of senile dementia in China from 2010 to 2030. Methods the data of related databases and other network resources were retrieved from 1990 to 2013, and 28 studies were analyzed by Meta using Meta Analyst Beta3.13 software. Using 6th census data to predict the number of people of all age groups in 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2025, and then to find out the corresponding number of patients. Results the number of senile dementia will reach sixteen million four hundred and fifty-six thousand people, six million eight hundred and seventy-one thousand men. There were nine million five hundred and eighty-five thousand females. The number of patients in the age group of 60 ~ 64 years old or 65 ~ 69 years old or 70 ~ 74 years old or 75 ~ 79 years old or 80 ~ 84 years old were one million fifty-four thousand, one million three hundred and eighty-seven thousand, one million six hundred and seven thousand, three million ninety-six thousand, three million two hundred and forty-seven thousand, six million sixty-five thousand respectively. Conclusion if there is no corresponding preventive measures, the number of patients in the age group above 85 is one million fifty-four thousand, one million three hundred and eighty-seven thousand, one million six hundred and seven thousand, three million ninety-six thousand, three million two hundred and forty-seven thousand and six million sixty-five thousand respectively. The number of senile dementia cases in China is set to rise sharply over the next 20 years. In 2030, the number of cases was 2.8 times higher than in 2010.
【作者单位】：苏州大学公共卫生学院;湖州师范学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(No.81373078)
【分类号】：R749.16

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