贵州省乙脑和气象因素的滞后关系

发布时间：2018-01-29 18:49

本文关键词： 流行性乙型脑炎气象因素分布滞后非线性模型　出处：《现代预防医学》2017年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：目的促进分布滞后非线性模型在乙脑和气象因素关系探讨中的应用,并为气象因素在乙脑预警模型中的应用提供依据。方法通过分布滞后非线性模型,探索2004-2010年期间贵州省11个区县,乙脑和气象因素的关系。结果随着周总降雨量的增加,其有效滞后范围从第6~7周,逐渐扩大到第2~7周,其相对危险度的峰值出现在第2周或第7周。随着周平均最低温度的升高,其有效滞后范围从第6周,逐渐扩大到第2~3周和第5~7周,其相对危险度的峰值出现在第2周或第6周。当周总降雨量取值为其50%和75%百分数时,其相对危险度峰值分别是1.10(95%CI:1.05~1.15)和1.22(95%CI:1.09~1.35)。当周平均最低温度取值为其50%和75%百分数时,其相对危险度峰值分别是2.39(95%CI:1.21~4.69)和7.99(95%CI:2.17~29.47)。结论分布滞后非线性模型精确详细地描述了气象因素在乙脑传播过程中的滞后特点。
[Abstract]:Objective to promote the application of the distributed lag nonlinear model in the discussion of the relationship between je and meteorological factors, and to provide the basis for the application of meteorological factors in the Japanese encephalitis early warning model. The relationship between encephalitis B and meteorological factors in 11 districts and counties of Guizhou Province from 2004 to 2010 was explored. Results with the increase of total rainfall, the effective lag range was from week 6 to week 7. The peak of relative risk appeared at week 2 or week 7, and the effective lag range was from week 6 to week 6 with the increase of the weekly mean minimum temperature. The peak of relative risk appeared in the 2nd or 6th week, when the total rainfall was 50% and 75% percent. The peak values of relative risk are 1.1095 CI: 1.05U 1.15) and 1.2295% CI: 1.09 / 1.35). When the mean weekly minimum temperature is 50% and 75% percent. The peak values of relative risk are 2.3995 CI: 1.214.69) and 7.9995 CI: 2.17 29.47). Conclusion the nonlinear model of distributed lag accurately describes the hysteresis characteristics of meteorological factors in the process of encephalitis B propagation.
【作者单位】：四川大学华西公共卫生学院(华西第四医院);
【分类号】：R181.3;R512.32
【正文快照】： 流行性乙型脑炎(简称乙脑)是一种由乙脑病毒引起,经蚊虫传播的人畜共患传染性疾病。该疾病发病急、死亡率高并伴有可致终身残废的后遗症,严重威胁着人类健康[1-2]。自从乙脑被纳入我国法定传染病以来,贵州省始终属于乙脑高发地区。气象因素不仅影响乙脑病毒的繁殖,还影响蚊虫

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