湖南省2010-2015年丙型肝炎发病流行病学特征与短期发病趋势预测

发布时间：2018-02-23 23:19

本文关键词： 肝炎丙型流行病学方法传染病　出处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：目的对湖南省丙型病毒性肝炎(丙肝)发病的流行病学特征进行分析并进行短期发病趋势预测。方法根据传染病报告信息管理系统中报告的2010-2015年湖南省丙肝疫情数据,运用描述性流行病学方法分析其流行病学分布特征,并使用指数平滑法预测2016-2017年湖南省丙肝发病趋势。结果 2010-2015年,湖南省累计报告丙肝病例60 328例,其中男性32 597例,女性27 731例,男女比例为1.18∶1。年平均发病率为18.337/10万,发病率呈逐年递增趋势,发病数、发病率的平均增长速度分别为22.39%和20.86%。发病有较明显季节性,表现为春夏季高发,3月为发病高峰。高发地区为怀化市(10 138例,占16.8%),邵阳(7 335例,占12.16%),衡阳(7 016例,11.63%)以及长沙(6 530例,占10.82%)。丙肝发病具有年龄单峰分布特征,从20岁开始发病急剧增高,40~50岁达到顶峰。在不同的职业构成中,农民构成比最高,为50.00%。使用Winters可加性模型预测2016-2017年月平均发病率分别为14.769/10万、13.687/10万,2016-2017年湖南省丙肝发病率较2015年水平将呈现出下降趋势。结论2010-2015年湖南省丙肝发病呈上升趋势,Winters可加性模型能较好的预测短期湖南省丙肝发病趋势,应结合预测情况与其实际流行病学特征制定防控丙肝策略,合理规划、分配卫生资源。
[Abstract]:Objective to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis C (hepatitis C) in Hunan province and predict the short-term incidence trend. Methods according to the epidemic data of hepatitis C from 2010 to 2015 reported in the information management system of infectious diseases in Hunan province. The descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the epidemiological distribution of hepatitis C, and the exponential smoothing method was used to predict the incidence trend of hepatitis C in Hunan province from 2016 to 2017. Results from 2010 to 2015, 60 328 cases of hepatitis C were reported in Hunan province, including 32 597 cases of men. There were 27 731 female cases with a ratio of 1.18: 1.The annual average incidence rate was 18.337 / 100 thousand, and the incidence rate was increasing year by year. The average increasing rate of incidence was 22.39% and 20.86, respectively. The incidence had obvious seasonality. The incidence rate was high in spring and summer, and the peak was in March. The incidence of hepatitis C in Huaihua city was 10 138 cases, accounting for 16. 8%, Shaoyang 7 335 cases (12. 16%) and Hengyang 7 016 cases (11. 6333) and Changsha 6 530 cases (10. 82%). The incidence of hepatitis C was characterized by a single peak distribution of age. The incidence increased sharply from the age of 20 to reach the peak at the age of 50. Among the different occupational groups, the farmer composition ratio was the highest. Winters additivity model was used to predict the average incidence of hepatitis C in 2016-2017 was 14.769 / 100000 / 100000 respectively. Conclusion the incidence of hepatitis C in Hunan Province will decrease from 2015 to 2016.Conclusion the incidence of hepatitis C in Hunan Province will increase from 2010 to 2015. The sex model can predict the incidence trend of hepatitis C in Hunan province in the short term. The strategy of prevention and control of hepatitis C should be formulated, reasonable planning and allocation of health resources should be made.
【作者单位】：中南大学湘雅公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系;湖南省疾病预防控制中心突发公共卫生事件应急处置办公室;
【基金】：湖南省科技厅科技计划重点项目(2014SK2013)
【分类号】：R512.63;R181.3

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