传染病季节性对传染病暴发探测预警阈值设定的影响分析

发布时间：2018-03-04 08:05

本文选题：C预警模型　切入点：水痘　出处：《现代预防医学》2017年19期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：目的依据水痘发病的季节性,分别优选出水痘高发季节和低发季节传染病预警模型的最佳预警阈值,分析季节性对预警模型阈值设定的影响。方法按照C2预警模型原理,设置12个备选预警阈值,依据松江区2015年水痘聚集性疫情资料,分别优选出全年、高发季节、低发季节的C2模型最佳预警阈值。结果 2015年松江区共报告水痘病例1 335例,年发病率为80.01/10万,水痘聚集性疫情25起,水痘疫情具有"冬春季高发"的特点,"2015.1.1-2015.2.11"和"2015.10.17-2015.12.31"为水痘高发季节。不考虑季节性影响,h=1.0为C2模型的最佳预警阈值(Se=92%,FAR=6.57%,TD=3天)。考虑季节性,高发季节预警阈值h=0.6时,C2模型预警效果最佳(Se=86.67%,FAR=0%,TD=2天);低发季节预警阈值h=1.4时,C2模型预警效果最佳(Se=100%,FAR=4.52%,TD=7天)。结论按照水痘发病的季节性分别设置最佳预警阈值,可以减少水痘低发季节的预警信号假阳性率,提高水痘高发季节的预警及时性。因此,应根据传染病的季节性分别设置预警阈值,提高预警效果。
[Abstract]:The seasonal basis varicella morbidity, were the best warning threshold selected high season and low season varicella epidemic early warning model, analysis of the impact of seasonal set of early-warning model threshold. According to the C2 method of early-warning model principle, set up 12 alternative warning threshold, according to the Songjiang District 2015 varicella epidemic data aggregation, are preferred that year, the high season, the best C2 model low season warning threshold. The 2015 Songjiang District reported a total of 1335 cases of varicella cases, the annual incidence rate of 80.01/10 million, 25 clusters of outbreaks of varicella, varicella has the characteristic of "high winter spring", "2015.1.1-2015.2.11" and "2015.10.17-2015.12.31" is not chickenpox in high season. Considering the seasonal effects, the best early warning threshold h=1.0 for the C2 model (Se=92%, FAR=6.57%, TD=3 days). Considering the seasonal flu season, early warning threshold value h=0.6, C2 effect of the early warning model The best (Se=86.67%, FAR=0%, TD=2 days); low season early warning threshold at h=1.4 C2, the best effect of the early warning model (Se=100%, FAR=4.52%, TD=7 days). Conclusion according to the seasonal incidence of varicella were setting the best warning threshold, can reduce the low season varicella warning signal of false positive rate, improve the early warning of varicella in high season timely. Therefore, should the warning threshold were set according to the seasonal infectious diseases, improve the early warning effect.

【作者单位】：复旦大学公共卫生学院;松江区疾病预防控制中心;
【基金】：公共卫生安全教育部重点实验室开放基金(GW2015-1)
【分类号】：R181.8

【相似文献】