1991～2005年全国道路交通伤害流行趋势及影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-04-11 12:28

本文选题：道路交通伤害 + 流行趋势　；参考：《暨南大学》2007年硕士论文

【摘要】： 【目的】系统分析我国1991～2005年道路交通伤害的流行趋势及影响因素，评价干预措施的效果，为预防和控制道路交通伤害提供科学依据。【方法】应用公开发表的二手资料，对全国、各地区以及大、中城市道路交通事故的流行趋势进行定量分析；对特大道路交通事故进行内容分析；对道路交通伤害的影响因素和干预措施评价采用定性和定量相结合的分析方法。【结果】①全国道路交通伤害的流行趋势：万车死亡率从1991～2005年一直呈直线下降趋势，2005年比1991年下降了73.87％；②全国道路交通伤害发展趋势影响因素：道路交通事故死亡人数与机动车、汽车驾驶员人数、机动车拥有量、民用汽车量、摩托车辆数、全国公路长度呈正相关关系(r分别为0.928、0.882、0.928、0.878、0.915、0.946，P=0.000)；③道路交通安全法的干预效果评价：2002～2005年我国道路交通事故死亡人数分别为：10.94万、10.44万、10.71万和9.87万。中华人民共和国道路交通安全法实施前后的2004年和2005年，我国道路交通事故死亡人数下降了7.8％，减少死亡人数约8400人。【结论】我国道路交通事故死亡人数在2002年达到历史的最高峰之后出现下降趋势；全国道路交通法的颁布和实施，对减少车祸的发生起重要作用。可以通过《中国统计年鉴》、《中国交通年鉴》和《中国人口年鉴》等公开发表的数据系统进行中国道路交通伤害研究；用逐年道路交通事故死亡人数是否下降评价干预措施的效果，，是可靠和简便易行的方法。
[Abstract]:[objective] to analyze the epidemic trend and influencing factors of road traffic injury in China from 1991 to 2005, evaluate the effect of intervention measures, and provide scientific basis for preventing and controlling road traffic injury.[methods] using the published second-hand data, the epidemic trend of road traffic accidents in China, various regions and large and medium-sized cities were analyzed quantitatively, and the contents of major road traffic accidents were analyzed.Qualitative and quantitative analysis methods were used to evaluate the influencing factors and intervention measures of road traffic injury.[results] 1 the prevalence trend of road traffic injury in China: the death rate of ten thousand vehicles has been decreasing in a straight line from 1991 to 2005, and in 2005 compared with 1991, the influencing factors of the development trend of road traffic injury in the whole country: road traffic accident and death.The number of deaths and motor vehicles,The number of drivers, the number of motor vehicles, the number of civilian vehicles, the number of motorcycles,A positive correlation between road length and road length in China the number of road traffic accident deaths in China from 2002 to 2005 was 109400, 104400, 1071 thousand and 98700, respectively.In 2004 and 2005 before and after the implementation of the Road Traffic Safety Law of the people's Republic of China the death toll of road traffic accidents in China decreased by 7.8 and about 8400 people.[conclusion] the death toll of road traffic accidents in our country has a downward trend after reaching the historical peak in 2002, and the promulgation and implementation of the national road traffic law plays an important role in reducing the occurrence of traffic accidents.Research on road traffic injuries in China can be carried out through the published data systems such as the China Statistical Yearbook, the China Traffic Yearbook and the China demographic Yearbook.It is a reliable and simple method to evaluate the effect of intervention by whether the death toll of road traffic accident decreases year by year.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2007
【分类号】：R181.3

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